Wisconsin unemployment stays below 3% for November

As 2024 wound down, we received a decent November jobs report for Wisconsin.

Preliminary employment estimates for November 2024 showed Wisconsin's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 2.9%, which is 1.3 percentage points below the national unemployment rate of 4.2%. The state's labor force participation rate increased to 65.8% in November while the national rate ticked down to 62.5%.

• Place of Residence Data: Wisconsin's unemployment rate was 2.9% in November, 1.3 percentage points below the national rate of 4.2%. Wisconsin's labor force increased by 7,200 over the month and 14,700 over the year. The number of people employed increased 6,000 over the month to a record-high 3,073,900 employed.

• Place of Work Data: Total nonfarm jobs increased 300 over the month and 23,400 over the year to 3,043,500 jobs.

Yes, November had that small increase in jobs overall, but it’s worrisome to see that private sector jobs dropped by 2,100, chiefly due to manufacturing losing 3,200 jobs for that month.

The household survey had better news, with the labor force and the number of Wisconsinites employed increasing. However, not all of the 7,300 new entrants to the work force found jobs, just 6,000, so the number of people unemployed also went up by a bit. But as you can see here, Wisconsin has had great numbers in the household survey for the last 8 months.

We've had 9 straight months of Wisconsin’s unemployment rate being under 3%, and it's down 0.5% from where it was this time last year. That's in marked constrast to what we've seen over the last 12 months for the US as a whole and every other Midwest state, who have seen unemployment go up.

Wisconsin's job market remains in a great place as the Biden Administration comes to an end. Like a lot of other things, let’s check back this time next year and see if that’s continued under Donald Trump. I am quite skeptical that it will.

Oh, NOW we realize spending and incomes have held up just fine this year?

Ahead of the holidays, we got the November income and spending report for the US economy. And there was lots of good news to take from it.

U.S. consumer spending increased in November amid strong demand for a range of goods and services, underscoring the economy's resilience, which saw the Federal Reserve this week projecting fewer interest rate cuts in 2025 than it had in September.

There was also good news on inflation last month after a series of warmer readings. The report from the Commerce Department on Friday showed moderate monthly rises in prices, with a measure of underlying inflation posting its smallest gain in six months. Nonetheless, the annual increase in core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained stubbornly well above the U.S. central bank's 2% target....

Personal income rose 0.3%, with wages shooting up 0.6%. Income at the disposal of households after accounting for inflation rose 0.2%, meaning some tapped their savings to fund purchases. The saving rate dipped to 4.4% from 4.5% in October.

Economists did not believe that the moderation in inflation last month would have changed the tone of the Fed's message on Wednesday. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.1% after an unrevised 0.2% gain in October.

The Fed's report on Wednesday made the DOW Jones Industrial Average drop more than 1,100 points on fears that inflation was coming back and would get higher in 2025. But nearly half of those losses were clawed back on Friday after this report showed the Fed's favored inflation gauge inidicated prices stayed under control while Americans made more money and were willing to keep spending it.

After a slowdown in early 2024, you can see that we've returned to trend on wage and salary growth, and inflation-adjusted consumer spending looks like it's going to continue to be a boost for the US economy to round out 2024.

While spending on services continues to go up, we've also seen a nice rebound on the goods side for much of 2024, especially among durable goods.

But it's also not overly different than the good economy that we've had in the last 6 months. So what explains this turnaround in attitude?

Look either the entire US economy turned around sometime in the month of November, or the economy really was great and we’ve just been mainlining media doomerism all along

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— Will Stancil (@whstancil.bsky.social) December 21, 2024 at 7:42 AM

Yes I know the scale makes that overall change look bigger than it was. But it definitely illustrates how full of shit MAGAs and the corporate economy have been this year. And these dishonest brokers deserve the pains that are coming as these good economic times come to an end, and people realize they've been had, which seems likely to happen sooner than later.

GDP revised up for Q3, likely strong for Q4. Just in time for Trump/Musk to screw it up

We knew the US economy kept growing at a good pace in late Summer and early Fall. But it turns out it was going even better than we thought.

The American economy grew at a healthy 3.1% annual clip from July through September, propelled by vigorous consumer spending and an uptick in exports, the government said in an upgrade to its previous estimate.

Third-quarter growth in U.S. gross domestic product — the economy's output of goods and services — accelerated from the April-July rate of 3% and continued to look sturdy despite high interest rates, the Commerce Department said Thursday. GDP growth has now topped 2% in eight of the last nine quarters.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, expanded at a 3.7% pace, fastest since the first quarter of 2023 and an uptick from Commerce’s previous third-quarter estimate of 3.5%. Exports climbed 9.6%. Business investment grew a lackluster 0.8%, but investment in equipment expanded 10.8%. Spending and investment by the federal government jumped 8.9%, including a 13.9% surge in defense spending.

Even if you want to disregard the government aspect of GDP, and remove volatile inventory numbers as well, you'll see that Q3 had better underlying growth than either of the 2 quarters of the first half of 2024.

Combine the Q3 numbers with the strong consumer spending numbers from October and November, and we likely will see another good GDP number for Q4. The Atlanta Fed is currently estimating GDP to top 3% again to round out 2024, which would be the first time that happened since the post-COVID stimulus and recovery of 2021.

But now the incoming Trump/Musk Administration wants to end all that and cut government spending, funnel more money to the rich and away from everyday workers (who spend more of their increased incomes than rich people do), and impose tariffs that would likely lead to retailiations from other countries and cut our growth in exports.

If President Biden and DC Dems were alive, they'd be out in public pounding the reality that Trump/GOP are inheriting a very good economy that Republicans are likely to screw up in the next year. In addition to being true, it would plant the seed in the head of some low-info voters to have them notice when things start to turn downward in 2025, and lay the blame in the right place - on Republican politicians and their puppetmasters who made things worse.

The Fed cut rates, just like the market expected. So why did the market crash 1,100 points?

We had a Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee meeting today. And Fed governors took the action that most of the Wall Street "experts" thought they would.

The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates on Wednesday, but policymakers signaled caution about additional rate cuts next year in the face of stubborn inflation.

The central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Rates have fallen by a full percentage point since September, making it cheaper to get a car loan, finance a business or carry a balance on your credit card.

And the stock markets reacted to this news by...falling more than 1,250 points after the Fed made its decision.

Why did the market have this huge drop when the Fed gave the rate cut that was expected? Because of what the Fed thinks will happen in 2025 and beyond.

Along with its policy announcement, the Fed released updated economic forecasts in its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), including its "dot plot," which maps out policymakers' expectations for where interest rates could be headed in the future.

Fed officials see the fed funds rate falling to 3.9% in 2025, higher than the Fed's previous September projection of 3.4%. Outside of September's jumbo 50 basis point cut, the Fed has moved in 25 basis point increments over the last year or so, indicating the central bank expects to cut interest rates two more times in 2025. In September, officials had projected four cuts next year.

Coming into the decision, markets had priced in two to three additional rate cuts next year, according to Bloomberg data. The central bank slashed interest rates by a total of 100 basis points in 2024.

Wait, you're telling me that the return of Trump to the White House isn’t going to lead to a low-rate cocaine party for the country? No, it won’t. And in fact, the Fed’s outlook has inflation going to be higher next year than it previously thought.

The SEP indicated the Federal Reserve sees core inflation peaking at 2.5% next year — higher than September's projection of 2.2% — before cooling to 2.2% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027. That higher inflation outlook pressured markets in the aftermath of the release.

The election of Donald Trump as the nation's next president has further complicated the outlook, with some economists arguing the US could face another inflation resurgence if Trump follows through with his key campaign promises.

The bond markets are clearly worried about the direction of things, as the benchmark 10-year bond has spiked by 37 basis points in less than 2 weeks, and is now at its highest level in 6 ½ months.

So maybe the post-election “Trump-timism” that those dimwits on Wall Street wanted to believe in isn’t matching up with the reality, even before Trump comes back int office. And maybe the Fed is hinting to us that they know Trump/GOP’s economic plans aren’t going to do a damn thing to calm inflation, and instead is going to make it worse. So they're getting ahead of any foolishness they might try to put into place.

MAGAs may not be keen on the reality-based community, but I got a feeling that the effects of Trump/GOP’s economic idiocy is going to seep into their BubbleWorld in 2025 whether they like it or not. And the traders on Wall Street are now cashing in their profits before they get caught in the popping of a Bubble of their own doing.

US retail sales have a strong November, and boosts Q4 growth prospects

As Christmas Shopping Season got underway last month, Americans had little problem in heading to the stores and spending money.

U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in November as households stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and online merchandise, consistent with strong underlying momentum in the economy as the year winds down...

Retail sales jumped 0.7% last month after an upwardly revised 0.5% gain in October, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, advancing 0.5%. Estimates ranged from a 0.1% dip to a 1.0% surge.

Retail sales increased 3.8% year-on-year in November.

Labor market resilience, characterized by historically low layoffs and strong wage growth, is underpinning consumer spending.

So as the President Biden's term winds down, it seems that the consumer economy is doing just fine. In fact, retail sales have especially picked up over the last 6 months after a slow end to 2023 and start to 2024.

November's jump in retail sales was driven by big increases in autos and auto parts (+2.6% on a seasonally-adjusted basis) and by non-store retailers such as Amazon (+1.8%). And both of those sectors have had strong year-over-year gains in each of the last 2 years, in contrast to sectors that have fallen off like bars and restaurants, and health stores.

Also note how dollar sales at gas stations have declined as gas prices have declined over the last 2 years, and that the pandemic-related boom in sporting goods and hobby stores continues to fade.

It's doubly interesting that November sales were this strong with Thanksgiving being as late as possible on the calendar, with Cyber Monday not coming until December. We will see if things stay strong on the retail sales side to round out 2024, which also should portend strong economic growth for Q4 overall.

Let's also see if the strong spending holds up as Trump/GOP take over and prices possibly on the rise with tariffs looming. And let's see if some of the boost in November spending is due to people making purchases to get ahead of those tariffs (raises hand), which could limit spending in 2025.

Bad stuff in my town

You may have heard there was a tragedy in Madison today.

The 39th time we've had to post this, and this time about The Onion's original hometown.

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— Tim Onion (@bencollins.bsky.social) December 16, 2024 at 3:48 PM

It was at a private school that takes vouchers, by the way (that's in case some a-hole wanted to dump on "Madison liberals" with this. They don't send their kids to voucher schools).

As long as GOP politicians are too bought off to do anything about this, it was bound to happen in our state sooner than later. It's awful, but votes beat quotes on this sort of thing.

IT'S THE GUNS, STUPID. And until enough voters elect people that understand this simple concept, there's nothing else to talk about.

It's the PPI that should make you worried about inflation coming back

The Consumer Price Index report wasn't good when it came to looking at inflation numbers (up 0.3%, with groceries up 0.5%). But I think the Producer Price Index (PPI) report from Thursday gives an even larger concern for the future.

Thursday's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that its producer price index (PPI) — which tracks the price changes companies see — rose 3% from the year prior, up from the 2.4% in October and above the 2.6% increase economists had projected. This marked the highest year-over-year increase since February 2023. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.4%, compared to the 0.2% seen in October.

Excluding food and energy, "core" prices increased 3.4% year-over-year, above October's 3.1% increase. Economists had expected an increase of 3.2%. Meanwhile, month-over-month core prices increased 0.2%, in line with last month's rise and economist projections.

And the bigger problem is that several food-related costs went up in that PPI report, leading to an overall increase in the food index of 3.1%.

Within the food index, there were some particularly huge spikes in producer prices.

Change in producer prices, Nov 2024
Eggs +55.6%
Fresh vegetables +33.2%
Fresh fruits +21.8%
Grains +5.0%
Beef and veal +2.8%
Pork +2.8%
Processed chickens +2.4%

That's quite a big 1-month change, and I wanted to see how long it might take before we see those huge jumps in producer prices show up at the grocery store. It looks like that it won't happen immediately or all at once, because the increases and decreases tend to be smoothed out at the consumer level. But if the track of the recent months is an indication, the increases will likely be spread out over the coming months.

Oh, and for those voters who thought Donald Trump had some kind of plan to bring down food prices back to 2021 levels? It ain't happening, kids.

Congratulations everyone willing to sacrifice American excellence, pride and freedom (just to start) for better egg prices that you were never going to get in the first place. I’ll remember your ignorance and apathy with every family ripped apart.

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— 💙❤️💙Mia💙❤️💙 (@mommamia.bsky.social) December 12, 2024 at 2:05 PM

The picture at the New York Stock Exchange just takes this to another level.

So much like with toys or computers, if you have a chance to stock up on food and use your freezer (or your cold porch) to store it, you may want to do so. Because it seems like food inflation is coming back after leveling off in the last year-plus, and with the Republicans in charge, they won't be doing anything to make the markets more competitive or keep the profits from retailers and middlemen in check.

And yes, I still believe that inflation levels of 3-4% aren't that big of a deal. But we may be fortunate if it's only that much this time next year (if we're not in recession), and I can't think the Federal Reserve would be cutting rates much after their meeting next week. Which might put a lot of brakes on the silly rally we've been seeing on Wall Street in the month since the US election, and turn things the other way as reality sets in.