American shoppers pulled back on their spending last month for the first time since August as stubborn inflation continued to bite and harsh weather curbed economic activity. Retail sales plunged 0.9% in January from the prior month, the Commerce Department said Friday. That’s down sharply from December’s upwardly revised 0.7% gain and well below economists’ expectations of a 0.4% decline. The figures are adjusted for seasonal swings but not inflation. Shoppers reined in their spending across multiple categories last month. Specialty stores and auto dealers were hit hardest, with spending falling 4.6% and 3%, respectively.I'd quibble with one item there, as retail sales are not adjusted for inflation. So the 0.9% decline is even larger than it seems, given that it came in spite of the 0.5% increase in prices that consumers paid last month. I will agree with the point that the drop in auto sales skews the picture, as sales beyond autos were only down a little bit after a jump in December. It seems likely that consumers pulled some purchases of autos and other products ahead in November and December as the prospect of tariffs loomed with Trump's inauguration in January. It also doesn't look like prices are coming down any time soon in this country, as the Producer Price Index followed up a 0.5% increase in December with a 0.4% increase in January. And even more concerning to me is that prices further up the supply chain were rising by more than that. Some of this might be profiteering to front-run on the tariffs, but it also means that there's nothing in the pipeline that will keep prices from rising in the coming months. UW-Madison professor Menzie Chinn put a lot of this information together, and while the inflation-enhanced drop in retail sales is concerning for January, it just retraces the growth we saw in the second half of 2024. Professor Chinn adds that he doesn't think there's any recession happening in this country until jobs start getting lost and income growth slows down. Oh, did we say job loss?
List of ALL DOGE Layoffs This Week - And Potential Danger krassencast.com/p/list-of-al...
— Krassensteins (@krassenstein.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 8:52 AM
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🚨NEWS: Massive layoffs are about to hit the IRS -- around 10,000 employees -- potentially in the middle of filing season. Of particular interest to the DOGE: Cutting IRS enforcement capabilities. -- with @jeffstein.bsky.social + Hannah Natanson
— Jacob Bogage (@jacobbogage.bsky.social) February 14, 2025 at 2:31 PM
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Seems like if some people slowed their spending for another month or two, whether they are threatened by unauthorized techno-dweebs or because they simply choose to, this country would fall into recession pretty quickly. We're not there yet, but you can sure see where things are heading.Tribal Organizations Say Trump’s Mass Layoffs Have Life-or-Death Consequences flip.it/ISlLk0 so, despite centuries of law, treaties, contracts & common sense, DOGE categorized anything Native American as “DEI”—& cut off funding for everything… including hospitals, police, fire fighters & schools.
— Sarah Szalavitz💡 (@dearsarah.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 7:23 PM
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