tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post2283921197324210288..comments2024-02-20T19:58:27.733-06:00Comments on Jake's Wisconsin Funhouse: St Norbert poll- Walker by 5 = Barrett up 3?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-52873130140068611902012-06-04T23:04:54.388-05:002012-06-04T23:04:54.388-05:00That's what I suspected. Thank you!That's what I suspected. Thank you!Monjalocahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10931541550438639744noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-11938134972944819362012-06-04T22:07:54.215-05:002012-06-04T22:07:54.215-05:00Wording of the question. The St. Norbert poll asks...Wording of the question. The St. Norbert poll asks if people support collective bargaining rights, and people say they do.<br /><br /> Then Franklin asks about "limits" on collective bargaining and the "limits" put on union workers in the Marquette poll. This is intentional weasel words that make it sound like there is room for negotiations, and that Act 10 only allowed for higher pension and health insurance contributions. This isn't true, but the Marquette poll doesn't mention that. Tells you where they lean right there.Jake formerly of the LPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15660401299391001751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-85459438799504686552012-06-04T00:14:09.673-05:002012-06-04T00:14:09.673-05:00I have a potentially dumb question:
One of the re...I have a potentially dumb question:<br /><br />One of the results of the 5/30 Marquette poll has been blowin' up my Twitter, and that is the question about collective bargaining. The poll found that 55% of respondents favored collective bargaining limitations for public employees whereas 41% opposed curtailing collective bargaining rights for public employees. In the St. Norbert poll, the response was, well, pretty much the opposite (59% favor CB, 35% oppose CB). My question is, what gives? Do you have any thoughts on what would cause this kind of discrepancy?Monjalocahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10931541550438639744noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-75278840219674733172012-05-25T17:41:48.617-05:002012-05-25T17:41:48.617-05:00MFG- But Dems aren't being adequately represen...MFG- But Dems aren't being adequately represented in these polls and conservatives are being overrepresented, so your theory goes out the window. Plus, the crosstabs of these polls show that almost as many Dems back Barrett as GOPs back Walker, and Barrett usually leads with independents.<br /><br /> So yes, from what I can see and what I've dissected, these pollsters are DEAD WRONG in their turnout assumptions, and last summer's recall turnouts show it. If anything, there'll be even more Dems out than there were in 2011.<br /><br /> Not surprisingly, we're starting to see internal polls get released showing the race to be a dead heat. Once PPP and others adjust their turnout models to fit the Wisconsin reality since 2000, and they should do that in the next few days, I think you'll see Barrett tied or possibly leading in at least a few of them.Jake formerly of the LPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15660401299391001751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-59161924726652157722012-05-25T15:53:12.444-05:002012-05-25T15:53:12.444-05:00Well it seems to me that the nature of this electi...Well it seems to me that the nature of this election has changed the normal dynamics of a race in the state of Wisconsin<br /><br />Surely there are voters who are Democrats, oppose Walker, but feel that the recall is inappropriate under these circumstances<br /><br />Surely there are also voters turned off by the stridency of the unions and their behavior who would normally lean and vote Democratic<br /><br />Again, ALL of these pollsters are wrong in their turnout assumptions?<br /><br />ALL of them...?MFGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00999774176871885794noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-9217544836389345872012-05-24T21:42:21.852-05:002012-05-24T21:42:21.852-05:00Well if you can name me a poll that has respondent...Well if you can name me a poll that has respondents in the neighborhood of actual Wisconsin voter turnout (which is approximately even to Dem+2, and a 20-40-40 lib-mod-con breakdown), and has Walker up by more than the margin of error, then I'll say he's ahead.<br /><br /> But NONE OF THOSE POLLS EXIST. This is the point. This St. Norbert poll was Walker +14 for 2010 voters when it was Walker +6 in the election. PPP had GOP +7 for respondents, Marquette Law had 47% conservative turnout. None of this is close to what the real turnout is and will be. <br /><br /> Please if you have a legitimate source that fits what I have above, bring it on. But to me, its obvious that this race is a toss-up if not a slight Barrett lead when you take into account a real Wisconsin turnout.Jake formerly of the LPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15660401299391001751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-83247288825220404552012-05-24T11:38:15.293-05:002012-05-24T11:38:15.293-05:00Every poll is showing Walker winning now
They'...Every poll is showing Walker winning now<br /><br />They're ALL wrong?<br /><br />You're letting your partisanship get in the way of your critical thinking<br /><br />Barrett will be beaten, and likely badly beaten...MFGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00999774176871885794noreply@blogger.com