tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post2612243547529408602..comments2024-02-20T19:58:27.733-06:00Comments on Jake's Wisconsin Funhouse: 2013 like 2012 and 2011- Wisconsin way behind on jobs Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-84923094693368427132014-06-21T02:03:33.784-05:002014-06-21T02:03:33.784-05:00Couple of things to add there:
1. In December 20...Couple of things to add there:<br /><br /> 1. In December 2010 - December 2013, US growth was 6.56%.<br /> 2. Over the previous three years, US growth was -6.49% and Wisconsin's was -5.88%.<br /> 3. These QCEW figures leave Wisconsin needing 158,187 jobs in 2014 for Walker to meet his 250,000 jobs promise. This requires an annual growth rate of 6.69%. For comparison, the best-performing state in 2013 was North Dakota with 3.93%.<br /> 4. To achieve 125,000 jobs by the end of 2014 we'd need a growth rate of 1.40%. 1.47% was achieved in 2012, so it is conceivable.<br /> 5. No calendar year of private sector job growth under Walker has yet exceeded the growth rate under Doyle in 2010, in case anyone's having trouble squinting at Jake's graph.<br /> 6. The average weekly wage was <a href="http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/ENU5500040010" rel="nofollow">$865 in 2013Q4</a>, up 1.2% on 2012Q4 (with Midwestern Q4-to-Q4 inflation being <a href="" rel="nofollow">0.9%</a>) and making 2013 up 2.0% on 2012 (annual Midwestern inflation being 1.4%).<br /><br />May jobs were weaker than I was expecting: like-for-like withholding was up a bit on a year before and UI claims were showing a relative drop during the survey week. Still, the direction of the household survey employment total result (up 1,300) is close to May's place of work survey result (down 1,000).<br /><br />The UI claims for the June survey week is our first indicator of how this month is doing: year-on-year, a near identical change to May's. Accounting for the month-to-month changes that'll be slipping off the 12-month sliding window, we might be looking at a gain of something like 3,000-4,000.GeoffThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17317722272565026078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-27535855791073877882014-06-20T11:58:37.613-05:002014-06-20T11:58:37.613-05:00I am not sure voters will understand campaign fina...I am not sure voters will understand campaign finance laws, (unless Walker can be labeled as a cheater), but I know they can understand when someone does not keep a promise. Scott Walker will not be close to 250,000 jobs. Jobs may again be the #1 issue in this governors race. Middle class guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16901563531025907248noreply@blogger.com