tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post4968421947936527705..comments2024-02-20T19:58:27.733-06:00Comments on Jake's Wisconsin Funhouse: Unemployment claims falling, 'cept for hereUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-52816629807103238122013-05-13T19:08:34.649-05:002013-05-13T19:08:34.649-05:00The CPS survey week for last month was week 15, Ap...The CPS survey week for last month was week 15, April 7th-13th and March's was week 11, the 10th-16th.<br /><br />Looking at the 2012 survey weeks, total UI claims dropped by 15,606 between March and April (from 112,943 to 97,337) and initial claims rose by 1,861 (from 11,162 to 13,023).<br /><br />This year, total UI claims in the same months' survey reference weeks dropped by 7,376 (from 101,356 to 93,980) and initial claims rose by 1,439 (from 10,994 to 12,433).<br /><br />I daresay the total claims is the one to pay more attention to, since it shows that the regular April jobs takeoff doesn't seem to have had the gusto it usually does at taking people from the ranks of the UI-claiming unemployed. Of course this is only looking at the currently insured subset of unemployed folk so isn't the whole picture, but the contrast is nonetheless a bit jarring compared to last year when the unemployment rate stayed flat at 6.9%.<br /><br />The March-April drop and the corresponding seasonally-adjusted U3 change have been as follows:<br /><br />2013: 7,376; 7.1% -> ???<br />2012: 15,606; 6.9% -> 6.9%<br />2011: 10,384; 7.6% -> 7.6%<br />2010: 11,405; 9.0% -> 8.8%<br />2009: 2,274; 8.4% -> 8.8%<br />2008: 6,526; 4.3% -> 4.3%<br /><br />There's not an incredibly clear pattern here, but my money would be on a slight uptick in the unemployment rate for April on this basis.<br /><br />The UI claims trend of the last few weeks though has me more worried for the May figures.GeoffThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17317722272565026078noreply@blogger.com