tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post6261214078876710500..comments2024-02-20T19:58:27.733-06:00Comments on Jake's Wisconsin Funhouse: DOA Secretary keeps digging hole on budget deficit spinUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-13536747482994774862014-09-16T22:35:17.870-05:002014-09-16T22:35:17.870-05:00Since the LFB projections you've been using of...Since the LFB projections you've been using of late were made some months after the rate cuts and withholding changes, they include their effects, yes.GeoffThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17317722272565026078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-76085429173125188852014-09-16T21:28:51.003-05:002014-09-16T21:28:51.003-05:00Looks like sales taxes were up a little over 4%, w...Looks like sales taxes were up a little over 4%, which isn't very different from predictions. And you're right, September seems to be the bigger key for income taxes, as there's a major adjustment coming due to August ending on a Sunday followed by a holiday.<br /><br /> If I'm reading this right, the LFB projections include the effect of the $96 million in rate cuts, so that doesn't need to be adjusted, correct? Jake formerly of the LPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15660401299391001751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-65349947128995035502014-09-16T20:16:16.300-05:002014-09-16T20:16:16.300-05:00I do have some FY15 revenue numbers right now, but...I do have <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnLGu8LbOjkhdG16M1kyLVFkTHN1U3MwVW1SQ0hBYmc&usp=drive_web#gid=0" rel="nofollow">some FY15 revenue numbers</a> right now, but they need big, big qualifiers: withholding is <b>always</b> in flux as the books are closed on the previous FY and the new one starts. This is precisely the reason why the DoR lumps the first three months of every FY into one revenue report: the numbers for those months in particular are far too noisy to have anything read into them, and it is poor form to look at any stretches of less than 3 months in any case for the same reason.<br /><br />The thing to remember is that the impact of the Act 145 election year giveaways on the current budget was <a href="http://legis.wisconsin.gov/lfb/publications/Miscellaneous/Documents/2014_01_28%20January%202014%20SS%20Bills.pdf" rel="nofollow">-$976,649,800</a>. If they had never happened, right now we'd be staring at a +$581m opening balance for FY16 and enough to cover the modest structural deficit for 2015-17 we would have had (\*) without the profligacy of the WisGOP.<br /><br />(\*) FY15 impact of the GOP recklessness is -$698m, which includes the last impact of the withholding changes. However, the FY16/FY17 structural deficit includes the expiration of this impact, revising revenues up. Without the election-year gimmickry, the structural deficit thus would have been the current $1,766 million less 2x $698m, or $370m, easily covered by a $581m starting balance and with high likelihood that revenue growth could not only cover appropriations growth but go a significant way to covering the Transportation Fund's structural deficit as well if so desired.<br /><br />These dire fiscal straits are of nobody's making but Walker and his legislative allies.GeoffThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17317722272565026078noreply@blogger.com