tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post7828110667579483894..comments2024-02-20T19:58:27.733-06:00Comments on Jake's Wisconsin Funhouse: More on the silly property tax giveawayUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-78158989257829244232013-10-16T00:37:06.707-05:002013-10-16T00:37:06.707-05:00July-September, (weekend-)adjusted withholding rec...July-September, (weekend-)adjusted withholding receipts (which in 2012 comprised about 60% of receipts) are up $63 million (3.8%) and sales tax receipts (which in 2012 comprised about 30% of receipts) are up $78 million (6.7%) over the same period in 2012.<br /><br />The withholding is running on pace with the projected GPR increase of 3.9% (comparing the <a href="http://legis.wisconsin.gov/lfb/publications/budget/2013-15%20Budget/Documents/Act%2020/2013_08_01%20WILeg%20BL%20Structural%20Deficit.pdf" rel="nofollow">August projection</a>, before there was any FY14 data, with the FY13 AFR). So overall receipts seem to be a bit better than expected for the first quarter, but certainly not on the pace needed to wipe out the structural deficit. Especially if withholding/wages don't pick up soon (people can't increase their spending without seeing increased income indefinitely).GeoffThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17317722272565026078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-762044504188552152013-10-15T23:41:59.513-05:002013-10-15T23:41:59.513-05:00Thank you. Thought so.
Curiously the cash flow pr...Thank you. Thought so.<br />Curiously the cash flow problem probably won't expose itself until June of 2014 in the midst of election rhetoric. Walker camp can't possibly think that revenues will continue to increase- almost exponentially- enough to repair this ~$400 million swing. They must have another plan. <br /><br />The plot will thicken.bombadil3765https://www.blogger.com/profile/08964633127033203501noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-34891586561842755442013-10-15T21:06:12.736-05:002013-10-15T21:06:12.736-05:00Yeah, in reality what should have happened is that...Yeah, in reality what should have happened is that the revenues be lower in the last budget, but then there wouldn't be a major surplus to carry over and "justify" tax cuts for this budget, of course. :P<br /><br /> What'll happen is that there will be larger refund checks, and a huge drop in revenues come February, March and April. It's cynical, but that's how it'll work. If revs are merely the same as July-December 2012 for those same months in 2013, we've got a major problem coming up. Jake formerly of the LPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15660401299391001751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-48228753153208887882013-10-15T19:56:32.745-05:002013-10-15T19:56:32.745-05:00Good point. Very good point.
The Koo-koo tax cut...Good point. <i>Very</i> good point.<br /><br />The <a href="https://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/statutes/statutes/71/I/06" rel="nofollow">Koo-koo tax cuts</a> kick in in calendar 2013 while <a href="http://www.revenue.wi.gov/pubs/pb166.pdf" rel="nofollow">withholding rates haven't changed since 2009</a>.<br /><br />The LFB estimates the cost of the Koo-koo is <a href="http://legis.wisconsin.gov/lfb/publications/budget/2013-15%20Budget/Documents/Act%2020/2013_08_07%20WILeg%20Tax%20and%20Fee%20Act%2020.pdf" rel="nofollow">$327,800,000 in FY14 and $320,100,000,</a>. Probably a good bet then that about $150 million was overwithheld in January-June this year, but that wasn't knowable at the time.<br /><br />So I wouldn't say that the headline "surplus" was due to intentional overwithholding so much as the budget setting things up for making $150m more appear in refund checks next spring.<br /><br />In the Governor's <a href="http://www.doa.state.wi.us/debf/pdf_files/bib1315.pdf" rel="nofollow">Budget in Brief</a> (table 4 on page 38 of the pdf), prior to the Koo-koo tax cuts, FY14 would see a structural deficit of $191.4m. On August 1st the LFB <a href="http://www.doa.state.wi.us/debf/pdf_files/bib1315.pdf" rel="nofollow">reckoned on a FY14 structural deficit of $207m</a> with a revised estimate of revenue of +$48m and revised appropriations of +64m.<br /><br />That does seem odd. It's conceivable that revenues-absent-tax-cuts would have been revised up by something like $520m in the space of a few months, but this seems highly unlikely. I'll have to see what they say about it.<br /><br />The GAAP-based CAFR should be out in December.GeoffThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17317722272565026078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-16995170187761651602013-10-14T21:56:13.299-05:002013-10-14T21:56:13.299-05:00Actually I had accounted for that in working out h...Actually I had accounted for that in working out how it's all dependent on capital gains. 3.4% was the <a href="http://legis.wisconsin.gov/lfb/publications/Revenue-Estimates/Documents/2013_01_24%20LFB%20general%20Fund%20Revenue%20and%20Expenditure%20Projections.pdf" rel="nofollow">projection for individual income tax receipt growth</a> (table 3, page 12), so withholding didn't meet that standard.<br /><br />Wow, the Transportation Fund is really quite up the creek, no wonder there's <a href="https://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/2013/related/acts/20/484" rel="nofollow">another $575 million in borrowing authority</a> in the budget. But it is orthogonal to the General Fund - at least as long as the latter isn't used to prop it up. Plus <a href="https://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/2013/related/acts/20/489" rel="nofollow">another $2.4 billion</a> in new borrowing authority for the building commission (I stopped counting after that).GeoffThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17317722272565026078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-78999093167241326342013-10-14T21:20:38.830-05:002013-10-14T21:20:38.830-05:00Actually Geoff, Page 6 of the DOA fiscal report in...Actually Geoff, Page 6 of the DOA fiscal report indicates withholding was only up 2.8% for Fy2013, which means the higher revenues were even more reliant on capital gains than you thought. By comparison, the stock market has been basically at 0% since the end of June, in this fiscal year.<br /><br /> Also interesting to note- the Transportation Fund's revenues came in below expectations, and spent $300 million more than it took in. I'd like to see that fund's outlook with people driving less and Walker borrowing more for roads. I bet that deficit's even higher than $545 mil.Jake formerly of the LPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15660401299391001751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-40149689182408294832013-10-14T21:17:09.460-05:002013-10-14T21:17:09.460-05:00Jake, GT,
Please confirm that this "surplus&q...Jake, GT,<br />Please confirm that this "surplus" is not simply a deferral. Since the $300 million income tax deduction did not include lower withholding taxes that means that in April of 2014 WI tax refunds will have to pay an extra $300 million. I assume/hope/don't think that LFB has been directed to consider the additional expense against this pay out? GAAP accounting would come in handy here.bombadil3765https://www.blogger.com/profile/11760711737016617920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-61335357609592903672013-10-14T19:34:29.658-05:002013-10-14T19:34:29.658-05:00The 2013 AFR is out tomorrow.
I had a peek at the...The <a href="http://www.doa.state.wi.us/docview.asp?docid=10430&locid=3" rel="nofollow">2013 AFR</a> is out tomorrow.<br /><br />I had a peek at the FY13 projections and it seems that the $287 million higher tax revenues than expected is, if the 3.4% projected improvement in individual income tax receipts was projected to be equal between wage taxes and capital gains taxes, then capital gains tax receipts exceeded expectations by... exactly $287 million, as it happens.<br /><br />The DJI rose 17% in FY13 vs 1.5% in FY12, and there were an extra $10 billion in dividends made last December just in case the (federal) capital gains tax would rise as the Obama-extended Bush tax cuts were expiring.<br /><br />Definitely a oneoff windfall caused by precisely nothing Walker had any influence over.GeoffThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17317722272565026078noreply@blogger.com