Looks like the Pew Center on the States has confirmed what we kind of knew- Wisconsin was the only state in the nation in 2010 that had its public employee pensions 100% fully funded.
This report goes along with the article I mentioned yesterday, which showed that Scott Walker could not use the failures in other states as an excuse to steal from and "reform" the WRS when the report on the system comes out in the next 11 days. If you look at the Wisconsin report on Page 49, you'll see how the state has been responsible in putting the money behind their promises to public sector workers for decades, unlike many other foolish places who underfunded these pensions as an excuse to give away goodies and tax cuts to others. As the report notes, the Doyle/Dem budget (which I'll remind you ended up in a $215 million surplus) put up $742 million in 2010 for WRS pensions (some paid by employees, but mostly by taxpayers).
In fact, Pew notes that Wisconsin actually overfunded its pensions in 2010 by $55 million, and also had post-retirement employee health care benefits covered at a rate that was nearly 5 times the national average. By point of comparison, look at Minnesota's situation on Page 23. The 'Sotans set aside $121 million more than Wisconsin for pensions in 2010...and still fell more than $400 million short of their recommended contribution. Why? Because past underfunding put them further in the hole year after year, while Wisconsin was fully funding WRS, and saving taxpayers millions in later years as a result because they didn't have to "catch up." So Wisconsin's fiscal responsibility has put it ahead of the curve, and allows us to have much more flexibility and fewer fiscal constraints than many other places as their Boomer employees leave the work force.
Of course, that wasn't enough for Governor Walker, so he decided to make public employees pay a lot more into the system (cutting their take-home pay in the process), while yanking out the same amount from the state. So what did we get for those alleged $370 million in tax savings? The most job losses in America and the lowest wage growth in the U.S. for the 4th Quarter of 2011. Oh, and a divisive, hateful atmosphere that resulted from the Walker Administration's scapegoating of public employees. And another $558 million in borrowing to "balance" the budget that has put us further in debt for future years.
So if Walker comes up with some kind of claim that employee pensions and benefits are destroying Wisconsin's budget, don't you dare fall for it. Because despite Walker's national ambitions and desire for D.C. media attention, he's still getting paid by us taxpayers to pass policies that are in the best interests FOR WISCONSIN. If he dares to touch a fully-funded WRS System that approximately 1 in 5 Wisconsin workers is a part of, it is time to take it to the streets and cut off the lies.
Monday, June 18, 2012
Sunday, June 17, 2012
Walker has no mandate, especially when it comes to Wisconsin pensions
You can see the setup coming. The Wisconsin State Journal getting a story planted in their Sunday version warning that the Wisconsin Retirement System may become underfunded if the markets don't pick up. This is quite timely, as the Walker Administration is supposed to produce a report in the next 2 weeks discussing what would happen if some of the WRS were converted to a 401(k)-type program, which no doubt Gov. Walker's out-of-state hedge fund contributors would love, as it would give them a huge group of new investors to reach as clients (or as they like to call it "fresh meat").
As the article points out, the constraints of the still fully-funded pension system come from Wall Street's 2008 meltdown, and not the benefits due public sector workers.
Maybe if these Scottholm Sundrome cases would read the Department of Employee Trust Funds FAQ's on the WRS, they'd realize it isn't costing them much at all, and in fact should be a model they should shoot for instead of trying to shoot down. If they flip to Page 8, the answer is right there:
But you can bet Scotty and company will try to make the comparisons to Illinois and Minnesota and other places like California, and will try to use the recent recall election as evidence of some kind of mandate. Well sorry guys, but just because voters didn't decide to kick you to the curb, it doesn't mean they see things your way. In fact, when the exit poll shows 60% of the voters thinking recalls should be for official misconduct only and 18% of Walker voters would support Obama in November, it tells me that a sizable number of voters went for Walker only because they disagreed with the concept of a recall election. In fact, if those people are more than 4% of the voting population, it means Walker would have lost a "regular" election.
With that in mind, I got a feeling the WisGOPs are going to find out the hard way that people don't want to see pensioners get screwed over by turning the WRS into a casino-style 401(k), but it's just the type of overreach I'm counting on them to do. It's up to us to get the truth that Wisconsin's fully-funded pension system works, keeps salary and other compensation costs down (which it does), and stabilizes Wisconsin's economy. Otherwise, you know the right-wing propaganda machine will try to lump Wisconsin's responsible system with the wasteful giveaways that have plagued places like our neighbors to the South and West, and these comparisons just don't hold water with what we have here in Dairyland.
So no, we are not California, we are not Illinois, and we are not remotely close to those places when it comes to the health of our pension fund. So when Sykes and Belling and Icki rant about how employee benefit costs are "killing" budgets, it's simply not true in Wisconsin. The only thing that is putting these pension funds under stress is the Wall Street casino that brought this country's economy to its knees, with virtually the only groups getting long-term relief being the banksters who screwed things up in the first place. And we certainly shouldn't put our futures in the hands of Wall Street by turning over a stable WRS system that more than 10% of Wisconsinites rely on for income security to those wolves.
As the article points out, the constraints of the still fully-funded pension system come from Wall Street's 2008 meltdown, and not the benefits due public sector workers.
To avoid a fifth straight year of reduced benefits in Wisconsin, the fund needs an unusally high investment return of 27 percent to 31 percent in 2012, said Jon Kranz, employee trust department budget and finance director.The same thing happened in the City of Milwaukee, where a fully-funded pension system has now required City taxpayers to kick in funds since 2010 to keep that pension fund over 100% funded. But these contributions do not allow pensioners to exactly live high on the hog. The State Journal story quotes the Legislative Fiscal Bureau's information on the public employee benefits from the WRS, and I'd hardly call them Cadillac-level.
Other options to cope with an investment return below 27 percent include increasing contributions from the taxpayers and employees or eroding the fund's base.
Over the last 20 years, fund investments have met or exceeded its 7 percent return goal on average. But it suffered a 24 percent loss in 2008, which has meant an unprecedented series of benefits cuts in 2009 and each succeeding year. Next in line for reductions are those who retired in 2002 or earlier.
Wisconsin retirement system at a glanceBut these relatively menial figures still get jealous derision from other workers who have had their pensions stolen by the Mitt Romneys and Bain Capitals of the world, and for some reason want the public sector workers to be dragged down to the same unacceptable level they are. It's a process 1670AM's Sly rightfully calls "Scott-holm Syndrome", where Walker and his supporters get low-wage, screwed-over private-sector workers to get on the same side as the corporate slime who put them in this mess, and have them blame public sector workers who did nothing but show up at their jobs every day.
Individual pension benefits are calculated to reflect an employee's length of service, salary, age and investment gains earned by the pension fund.
•Average annual benefit: $23,000
•Average retirement age: 60
•Average retiree age: 70
Two-thirds of current retirees had from 10 to 35 years on the job.
Years of service/ Average final pay/ Average annual benefit
10-15 $32,443 $9,384
15-20 $39,179 $14,112
20-25 $44,732 $20,448
25-30 $50,220 $29,256
30-35 $54,579 $37,572
Maybe if these Scottholm Sundrome cases would read the Department of Employee Trust Funds FAQ's on the WRS, they'd realize it isn't costing them much at all, and in fact should be a model they should shoot for instead of trying to shoot down. If they flip to Page 8, the answer is right there:
14) There has been a lot of media coverage about the financial health of pension systems across the nation. Is the WRS fully funded and able to pay benefits?And the Pew Center on the States report from last year backs this up, as Page 3 shows Wisconsin as 1 of 2 states with a 100% funded pension system and a taxpayer contribution of about $123 a Wisconsinite. Compare that to places like Minnesota, who had required taxpayer contributions nearly double Wisconsin's (with a lower population) and were only 78% funded in 2009, or the boogeyman of Illinois, with its 51% funding and needs of $4.1 billion a year just to keep up.
• Yes. The WRS is fully funded and able to pay benefits to current and future WRS members.
But you can bet Scotty and company will try to make the comparisons to Illinois and Minnesota and other places like California, and will try to use the recent recall election as evidence of some kind of mandate. Well sorry guys, but just because voters didn't decide to kick you to the curb, it doesn't mean they see things your way. In fact, when the exit poll shows 60% of the voters thinking recalls should be for official misconduct only and 18% of Walker voters would support Obama in November, it tells me that a sizable number of voters went for Walker only because they disagreed with the concept of a recall election. In fact, if those people are more than 4% of the voting population, it means Walker would have lost a "regular" election.
With that in mind, I got a feeling the WisGOPs are going to find out the hard way that people don't want to see pensioners get screwed over by turning the WRS into a casino-style 401(k), but it's just the type of overreach I'm counting on them to do. It's up to us to get the truth that Wisconsin's fully-funded pension system works, keeps salary and other compensation costs down (which it does), and stabilizes Wisconsin's economy. Otherwise, you know the right-wing propaganda machine will try to lump Wisconsin's responsible system with the wasteful giveaways that have plagued places like our neighbors to the South and West, and these comparisons just don't hold water with what we have here in Dairyland.
So no, we are not California, we are not Illinois, and we are not remotely close to those places when it comes to the health of our pension fund. So when Sykes and Belling and Icki rant about how employee benefit costs are "killing" budgets, it's simply not true in Wisconsin. The only thing that is putting these pension funds under stress is the Wall Street casino that brought this country's economy to its knees, with virtually the only groups getting long-term relief being the banksters who screwed things up in the first place. And we certainly shouldn't put our futures in the hands of Wall Street by turning over a stable WRS system that more than 10% of Wisconsinites rely on for income security to those wolves.
Saturday, June 16, 2012
Racine recount is Walker pay-to-play in full effect
When I read the flimsiness of the complaint of "voter irregularities" in Racine during the recall election, my BS radar went off. And not just because of the lameness and sketchiness of the complaint. Basically, some guy took in a bag of voter materials that he said he found in a dumpster near the Cesar Chavez Community Center. The Racine County D-A's office refuses to say who the guy is, but given that a bunch of Texasses were flown in to Wisconsin for voter suppression reasons, one of those guys would be a good first guess.
But my first instinct was to see who the Racine County D-A was and how he got the job. I didn't have to look too far back, because it turns out Rich Chiapete was appointed by Governor Walker to the job 3 months ago, right as the recall election campaign was heating up, which sure makes you wonder what kind of deal was made as part of that appointment.
And then One Wisconsin Now did a quick check of the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign's website, and noted that Chiapete's wife Jennifer gave $100 to recount-requestor Van Wangaard's campaign last November. In addition, Racine County Sherriff Chris Schmaling gave $100 to Chris Wright, who ran for State Assembly against Cory Mason in 2010, and the Schmaling family has also given to Robin Vos and other GOP candidates in the past. As Badger Democracy's Scott Wittkopf points out, Schmaling has followed the sell-it-off philosophy of Vos and company since taking over at the RCSD.
And then Scott Wittkopf at Badger Democracy takes us to obvious connection Number 2- the guy that Chiapete replaced as Racine County D-A, Mike Nieskes.
And now the real reason for this recount. WisGOP doesn't believe that they can win, and One Wisconsin Now's own report shows that new registrations in the City of Racine matches the number of new voters, so no issues there (and none that would be solved with voter ID, either). But what it does do is give a whole lot of time for race-baiting talk show hosts on 620 and 1130 to bring up the non-existent issue of "voter fraud" again, and play on the fears of the racists and shut-ins that listen to that crap.
This is all done with a wink and a nod from the Walker Administration and WisGOP, proving once again that they are not serious when they talk about trying to work with Democrats on coming up with "bipartisan" policies that help this state. These scumbags aren't going to back down, and it's up to us to not do the same. We need to remember that numerous exit polls show a sizable portion of people voted for Walker on June 5 not because of agreement with his policies, but because they fell for the propaganda that a recall was unnecessary, and therefore Scotty didn't deserve to lose his job before his term was up.
The voters know in their hearts that WisGOP is wrong, and just because they didn't pull the trigger on their careers doesn't mean they started to believe that "it's working." (a majority know it's not) It's time to push back harder on all of these racist, political games that WisGOP plays, and send the message loud and clear that these people are corrupt, and do not care about improving our democracy, or the quality of life in our state. If so, this is one main area where Wisconsin progressives and the DPW can go with Fall 2012 campaign, making the message clear that they will not pull these shenanigans, and will restore dignity and decency to Wisconsin politics.
But my first instinct was to see who the Racine County D-A was and how he got the job. I didn't have to look too far back, because it turns out Rich Chiapete was appointed by Governor Walker to the job 3 months ago, right as the recall election campaign was heating up, which sure makes you wonder what kind of deal was made as part of that appointment.
And then One Wisconsin Now did a quick check of the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign's website, and noted that Chiapete's wife Jennifer gave $100 to recount-requestor Van Wangaard's campaign last November. In addition, Racine County Sherriff Chris Schmaling gave $100 to Chris Wright, who ran for State Assembly against Cory Mason in 2010, and the Schmaling family has also given to Robin Vos and other GOP candidates in the past. As Badger Democracy's Scott Wittkopf points out, Schmaling has followed the sell-it-off philosophy of Vos and company since taking over at the RCSD.
[Schmaling] is a staunch GOP supporter, and proponent of privatization of County services. On his own campaign website, Robin Vos (R-Rochester) uses Schmaling’s department as an example of how Act 10 is “working”:So the Racine County Sheriff's and D-A's office is obvious connection Number 1.
“This week, Racine County Sheriff Christopher Schmaling told me the county can now outsource food service for their jail. The result is big savings for taxpayers and will help in the crime fighting efforts in our area. The change from doing the food service internally to outsourcing it to a company named Aramark…”
Aramark has faced repeated criticism on cost, service, product, and treatment of employees. The company was virtually forced to end its contract with Florida Department of Corrections following numerous fines for contract violations. Racine residents should keep a close eye on the real costs to taxpayers associated with this contract.
And then Scott Wittkopf at Badger Democracy takes us to obvious connection Number 2- the guy that Chiapete replaced as Racine County D-A, Mike Nieskes.
The appointment of Chiapete came after Walker named then-DA Mike Nieskes to a vacant Circuit Court Judgeship (more on that in a bit). Chiapete will not face an election until January 2013, and was the only applicant to the vacancy. Staff in the DA’s office informed Badger Democracy today that Nieskes was instrumental in securing the position for Chiapete internally....GOP backscratching corruption runs deep with this crowd, doesn't it? Obvious connection Number 2.
...Nieskes left his position to accept a Circuit Court Judgeship after being appointed by – you guessed it – Governor Scott Walker in December, 2011. Nieskes has been DA since 2005, after running unopposed. Prior to that, he was acting DA after the embattled Lennie Weber stepped down in 1993 to serve on the State Gaming Board (Weber was a Tommy Thompson nominee). Weber resigned the gaming board amidst scandal in 1994. While serving in a supposed “non-partisan” office, Nieske donated to Scott Walker in 2010, Bill McReynolds in 2006, and Reince Priebus in 2004.
And now the real reason for this recount. WisGOP doesn't believe that they can win, and One Wisconsin Now's own report shows that new registrations in the City of Racine matches the number of new voters, so no issues there (and none that would be solved with voter ID, either). But what it does do is give a whole lot of time for race-baiting talk show hosts on 620 and 1130 to bring up the non-existent issue of "voter fraud" again, and play on the fears of the racists and shut-ins that listen to that crap.
This is all done with a wink and a nod from the Walker Administration and WisGOP, proving once again that they are not serious when they talk about trying to work with Democrats on coming up with "bipartisan" policies that help this state. These scumbags aren't going to back down, and it's up to us to not do the same. We need to remember that numerous exit polls show a sizable portion of people voted for Walker on June 5 not because of agreement with his policies, but because they fell for the propaganda that a recall was unnecessary, and therefore Scotty didn't deserve to lose his job before his term was up.
The voters know in their hearts that WisGOP is wrong, and just because they didn't pull the trigger on their careers doesn't mean they started to believe that "it's working." (a majority know it's not) It's time to push back harder on all of these racist, political games that WisGOP plays, and send the message loud and clear that these people are corrupt, and do not care about improving our democracy, or the quality of life in our state. If so, this is one main area where Wisconsin progressives and the DPW can go with Fall 2012 campaign, making the message clear that they will not pull these shenanigans, and will restore dignity and decency to Wisconsin politics.
Thursday, June 14, 2012
Mediocre May continued Wisconsin job stagnation...and bad spin
Today featured the release of the Wisconsin May jobs numbers, and they were tepid at best. How do we know they aren't good? Because of the hilarious burial of the lead and associated spin job Reggie Newson and company put together at DWD.
So when you put these numbers into the charts, and you'll see that there was actually a reduction in the Walker jobs gap for all jobs in the U.S., mostly due to the U.S.'s weak growth in May (golf clap!). The bad news for Walker is that it only cut the gap by about 1,100, it was only the 3rd time the state outperformed the U.S. in the 14 months since Act 10 was passed (that's a .214 average, for you scoring at home), and the gap still sits at 62,200.
The private sector didn't do as well in Wisconsin fotr May, however. 900 jobs is far from sufficient, and that caused the private sector jobs gap to go up in May. In fact, the private sector Walker jobs gap is now larger than the overall jobs gap, at nearly 63,000.
The private sector jobs picture includes a distressing decline in Construction employment of 3,300. Construction employment statewide has now dropped 9,200 since February (or 10%) despite record heat for the state in the same time period. Not a good sign at all. The warm weather also may have held down usual Summer hiring in the Leisure and Hospitality industries, as those industries had their hiring pushed forward into March and April, meaning their 10,600 non-seasonal gain in May comes in as a seasonally-adjusted 2,200-job loss.
That's all in the jobs report, but I also note what's missing this month from their charts- the year-over-year comparisons. Guess they didn't want to talk about that, so I will give it to you here.
Change in jobs, Wisconsin, May 2011-May 2012
Total jobs -15,200
Private sector -9,500
We'll see tomorrow if that keeps Wisconsin at its "Number 1 for job loss" status. However, the Walker folks will counter with their own little Census numbers (you know, the ones they conveniently cooked up 3 weeks before the election?) and they'll try to tell you things aren't that bad because they have these (mediocre) numbers. Not surprisingly, the DWD does include those stats in the jobs report. Of course, Badger Democracy's Scott Wittkopf revealed 2 weeks ago the numbers still haven't been verified by the BLS, and they won't be for another 2 weeks, but our vaunted media consistently forgets to mention that part of the equation.
What's interesting about the Employer Census report is that out of the alleged increase of 23,608 in jobs, over 7,000 are in the "unclassified" sector. Now you'd think that would statistical noise, except that the number of "unclassified" jobs increases from 3,649 to 10,651 in 12 months, or nearly triple the amount there were in 2010. Makes you wonder what the hell those jobs were, don't it? Were they counting Koch posters to websites to show Walker's "grassroots" support? I'll be very interested to see what happens when the BLS gives its report on these numbers, and be able to compare them to other states in the Midwest.
But given that the verification is 2 weeks away, I'll go with today's DWD report as evidence instead. The numbers still suck, and given that Wisconsin unemployment claims continue to stay at a high level (they were actually up for the week of May 28, despite the fact that Memorial Day meant only 4 days of work to miss and file claims), I don't see that reversing any time soon.
MADISON – The Department of Workforce Development (DWD) today released the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised estimates for April and preliminary estimates for May, covering unemployment and employment statistics for the state of Wisconsin. In brief, the estimates showed:That's their f***ing lead! They don't even tell you that the 6.8% is an increase from last month's 6.7% (not a big deal, it's the same as the U.S., and like the U.S., it's because of increased job-seekers), or that jobs went up by 2,600 total and 900 in the private sector, which are the biggest items people care about on that stat.
Place of work data: Upward revisions to seasonally adjusted total nonfarm and private-sector job numbers in April by 1,700 and 1,900, respectively.
Place of residence data: A preliminary seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 6.8 percent in May. In addition, there was an increase in the state’s labor force participation rate, which shows a greater share of Wisconsin’s population is in the labor force either working or actively seeking employment.
So when you put these numbers into the charts, and you'll see that there was actually a reduction in the Walker jobs gap for all jobs in the U.S., mostly due to the U.S.'s weak growth in May (golf clap!). The bad news for Walker is that it only cut the gap by about 1,100, it was only the 3rd time the state outperformed the U.S. in the 14 months since Act 10 was passed (that's a .214 average, for you scoring at home), and the gap still sits at 62,200.
The private sector didn't do as well in Wisconsin fotr May, however. 900 jobs is far from sufficient, and that caused the private sector jobs gap to go up in May. In fact, the private sector Walker jobs gap is now larger than the overall jobs gap, at nearly 63,000.
The private sector jobs picture includes a distressing decline in Construction employment of 3,300. Construction employment statewide has now dropped 9,200 since February (or 10%) despite record heat for the state in the same time period. Not a good sign at all. The warm weather also may have held down usual Summer hiring in the Leisure and Hospitality industries, as those industries had their hiring pushed forward into March and April, meaning their 10,600 non-seasonal gain in May comes in as a seasonally-adjusted 2,200-job loss.
That's all in the jobs report, but I also note what's missing this month from their charts- the year-over-year comparisons. Guess they didn't want to talk about that, so I will give it to you here.
Change in jobs, Wisconsin, May 2011-May 2012
Total jobs -15,200
Private sector -9,500
We'll see tomorrow if that keeps Wisconsin at its "Number 1 for job loss" status. However, the Walker folks will counter with their own little Census numbers (you know, the ones they conveniently cooked up 3 weeks before the election?) and they'll try to tell you things aren't that bad because they have these (mediocre) numbers. Not surprisingly, the DWD does include those stats in the jobs report. Of course, Badger Democracy's Scott Wittkopf revealed 2 weeks ago the numbers still haven't been verified by the BLS, and they won't be for another 2 weeks, but our vaunted media consistently forgets to mention that part of the equation.
What's interesting about the Employer Census report is that out of the alleged increase of 23,608 in jobs, over 7,000 are in the "unclassified" sector. Now you'd think that would statistical noise, except that the number of "unclassified" jobs increases from 3,649 to 10,651 in 12 months, or nearly triple the amount there were in 2010. Makes you wonder what the hell those jobs were, don't it? Were they counting Koch posters to websites to show Walker's "grassroots" support? I'll be very interested to see what happens when the BLS gives its report on these numbers, and be able to compare them to other states in the Midwest.
But given that the verification is 2 weeks away, I'll go with today's DWD report as evidence instead. The numbers still suck, and given that Wisconsin unemployment claims continue to stay at a high level (they were actually up for the week of May 28, despite the fact that Memorial Day meant only 4 days of work to miss and file claims), I don't see that reversing any time soon.
Monday, June 11, 2012
More to life than property taxes
Interesting report came out today from the Milwaukee-based Public Policy Forum, which showed the trends for Milwaukee-area property values and property taxes over the last 4 years. It's got a lot of good info on the trends and in the 7-county Milwaukee area, and I highly recommend giving it a look.
Not surprisingly, the Journal-Sentinel headlined the the drop of $59 in property taxes on average-priced home in the region. To the J-S's credit, they do mention the decrease in property values across Southeastern Wisconsin, and as the following table shows, that $59 was far outstripped by a loss in average home values for this year, continuing a trend from 2010 to 2011.
These numbers create an interesting conundrum if you're trying to justify that Walker's tax policies are working, because you could say the best example of it "working" is in Walker's former home of Milwaukee County, where the average tax bill has dropped by more than $100. However, it also means that the average home price in Milwaukee County has dropped by $20,000, and the tax RATE has climbed by over 10%, which hurts homeowners whose homes have kept their value.
Same trend has happened in the pro-Walker 262 suburbs, as Ozaukee Couty's rate is up nearly 3% the last 2 years, Washington and Waukesha each up over 5.5%, and Walworth tax rates up nearly 7%. This can hit many suburban and rural areas that don't revalue homes each year, and can mean the homeowner gets the double-whammy of lower overall home values, which hurts their ability to sell their homes, combined with higher taxes due to a lack of a revaluation.
With schools continuing to be devastated by Walker's cuts and retirements continuing to happen at a heavy clip, do you see any reason the suburbs will have their home values go up any time in the near future? Of course not - good schools and the livability that results from them are the only reasons to live in a place like Germantown or Grafton. And now these advantages are being taken away for what? Saving a total of $5 a month on tax-deductible property taxes? As I mentioned last year, was it really worth it to screw up our state's great services and bottom out your home values for a handful of bucks on your tax bill?
You'll find out the hard way soon enough, because here's the biggest catch. Act 10 "savings" were a one-time shot that may have taken some of the costs out of the equation for 1 year, but kept the lower property tax limits for future years. Nothing new has been created from taking this money out of the economy (certainly no jobs were created). The miniscule tax savings are far outweighed by the thousands of dollars in lost wealth from the home market drying up and the state's economic downturn continuing in the age of Fitzwalkerstan, proving once again how much a sucker those rural and suburban folk were for keeping these policies in place for the next 2 years.
Watch the howling begin over the next year-and-a-half when the average homeowner realizes how much they have lost from this deal, both in the quality of their services (which'll go down with no ability to pay for them), and in the tanking of their home values. Well, far too many of you chose to pick a slight drop taxes over a higher quality of life, and now we'll all the pay the price for it.
Not surprisingly, the Journal-Sentinel headlined the the drop of $59 in property taxes on average-priced home in the region. To the J-S's credit, they do mention the decrease in property values across Southeastern Wisconsin, and as the following table shows, that $59 was far outstripped by a loss in average home values for this year, continuing a trend from 2010 to 2011.
These numbers create an interesting conundrum if you're trying to justify that Walker's tax policies are working, because you could say the best example of it "working" is in Walker's former home of Milwaukee County, where the average tax bill has dropped by more than $100. However, it also means that the average home price in Milwaukee County has dropped by $20,000, and the tax RATE has climbed by over 10%, which hurts homeowners whose homes have kept their value.
Same trend has happened in the pro-Walker 262 suburbs, as Ozaukee Couty's rate is up nearly 3% the last 2 years, Washington and Waukesha each up over 5.5%, and Walworth tax rates up nearly 7%. This can hit many suburban and rural areas that don't revalue homes each year, and can mean the homeowner gets the double-whammy of lower overall home values, which hurts their ability to sell their homes, combined with higher taxes due to a lack of a revaluation.
With schools continuing to be devastated by Walker's cuts and retirements continuing to happen at a heavy clip, do you see any reason the suburbs will have their home values go up any time in the near future? Of course not - good schools and the livability that results from them are the only reasons to live in a place like Germantown or Grafton. And now these advantages are being taken away for what? Saving a total of $5 a month on tax-deductible property taxes? As I mentioned last year, was it really worth it to screw up our state's great services and bottom out your home values for a handful of bucks on your tax bill?
You'll find out the hard way soon enough, because here's the biggest catch. Act 10 "savings" were a one-time shot that may have taken some of the costs out of the equation for 1 year, but kept the lower property tax limits for future years. Nothing new has been created from taking this money out of the economy (certainly no jobs were created). The miniscule tax savings are far outweighed by the thousands of dollars in lost wealth from the home market drying up and the state's economic downturn continuing in the age of Fitzwalkerstan, proving once again how much a sucker those rural and suburban folk were for keeping these policies in place for the next 2 years.
Watch the howling begin over the next year-and-a-half when the average homeowner realizes how much they have lost from this deal, both in the quality of their services (which'll go down with no ability to pay for them), and in the tanking of their home values. Well, far too many of you chose to pick a slight drop taxes over a higher quality of life, and now we'll all the pay the price for it.
Saturday, June 9, 2012
Election recap pt. 2- the turnout was there
I wanted to go back to Tuesday's results, and see if my hypotheses about turnout happened. Turnout statewide was definitely up from 2010, but not to the levels that the GAB predicted. There were just over 2.5 million votes cast, which made turnout around 58%, slightly below the GAB predictions of 60 to 65 percent. However, this varied greatly based on where you may have lived.The WisDems strategy of increasing turnouts in their strongholds of Madison and Milwaukee seem to have work, as evidenced by the 73% turnout in the City of Madison, (would have been more had students been in classes), and 76% in the City of Milwaukee. But working in Walker's favor were the big turnouts in the Green Bay and Appleton areas, where Brown County had turnout near 76% and Outagamie County near 78%. So in addition to the big swing that went to Walker in those areas, he also benefitted from a huge turnout in those places.
With this in mind, let's go to our top 10 counties in turnout for the recall election (results unofficial for now).
% of overall state vote, Governor recall election 2012
Dane County 10.17%
City of Milwaukee 9.24%
Waukesha Co. 8.53%
Rest of Milwaukee Co. 6.53%
Brown County 4.15%
Racine County 3.43%
Outagamie Co. 3.10%
Winnebago Co. 2.83%
Washington Co. 2.76%
Rock County 2.52%
Now let's run the numbers from 2010, and you'll see the effects of that increased turnout for both Green Bay-Appleton (helping Walker), as well as the City of Milwaukee (helping Barrett). The deep-red county of Washington continued to gain as a share of voters, but so did blue-trending Rock County.
% of overall state vote, Governor 2010
Dane County 10.19% (2012 was -0.02% from this)
Waukesha County 8.71% (2012 was -0.18%)
City of Milwaukee 8.69% (2012 was +0.53%)
Rest of Milwaukee Co. 7.09% (2012 was -0.56%)
Brown County 4.09% (2012 was +0.06%)
Racine County 3.37% (2012 was +0.06%)
Outagamie Co. 3.02% (2012 was +0.08%)
Winnebago Co. 2.83% (no change in 2012)
Washington Co. 2.73% (2012 was +0.03%)
Rock County 2.42% (2012 was +0.10%)
So in terms of a turnout advantage in this year's election vs. 2010, the advantage went slightly to Barrett, especially when you consider that Racine, Rock, and the City of Milwaukee were among the few areas that swung toward Barrett vs. 2010. But along with NE Wisconsin, the other, lower-vote total parts of the state is where Walker really cleaned up, and maintained his 6-7 point advantage.
I'll go more into this later, but I got a killer Brewer tailgate to hit. Catch ya on the flip side.
(EDIT:) I'm back now on Sunday, I wanted to throw in the 2008 turnout figures and see if we had any changes.
% of overall state vote, President 2008
Dane County 9.48% (-0.69% vs. 2012)
City of Milwaukee 9.22% (-0.02% vs. 2012)
Waukesha County 7.81% (-0.72% vs. 2012)
Rest of Milw. Co. 6.71% (+0.18% vs. 2012)
Brown County 4.18% (+0.03% vs. 2012)
Racine County 3.37% (-0.06% vs. 2012)
Outagamie Co. 3.07% (-0.03% vs. 2012)
Winnebago Co. 2.94% (+0.11% vs. 2012)
Rock County 2.65% (+0.13% vs. 2012)
Kenosha County 2.64% (approx. +0.14% vs. 2012)
Washington Co. 2.49% (-0.27% vs. 2012)
So what this shows is that on June 5, Wisconsin;s turnout resembled a low-turnout presidential election, with the composition of the electorate, and this was especially shown with the larger share for the City of Milwaukee. The big exceptions are the pro-Walker counties of Outagamie, Brown and Washington, who all grew their share of the turnout. Waukesha County still had a bigger share than they had in 2008, but you can see where the Milwaukee turnout and other high levels of voting diluted them a bit. Interestingly, Dane County stayed so high in turnout that they stayed above their 2008 levels, and that was with quite a few UW students voting elsewhere (as noted by turnouts below 10-15% in the student dorm wards).
Bottom line, increased turnout generally gave a small boost to Barrett and the Dems, but it was overcome by shifts in votes to Walker in NE and rural Wisconsin, and that's what made the difference Tuesday.
With this in mind, let's go to our top 10 counties in turnout for the recall election (results unofficial for now).
% of overall state vote, Governor recall election 2012
Dane County 10.17%
City of Milwaukee 9.24%
Waukesha Co. 8.53%
Rest of Milwaukee Co. 6.53%
Brown County 4.15%
Racine County 3.43%
Outagamie Co. 3.10%
Winnebago Co. 2.83%
Washington Co. 2.76%
Rock County 2.52%
Now let's run the numbers from 2010, and you'll see the effects of that increased turnout for both Green Bay-Appleton (helping Walker), as well as the City of Milwaukee (helping Barrett). The deep-red county of Washington continued to gain as a share of voters, but so did blue-trending Rock County.
% of overall state vote, Governor 2010
Dane County 10.19% (2012 was -0.02% from this)
Waukesha County 8.71% (2012 was -0.18%)
City of Milwaukee 8.69% (2012 was +0.53%)
Rest of Milwaukee Co. 7.09% (2012 was -0.56%)
Brown County 4.09% (2012 was +0.06%)
Racine County 3.37% (2012 was +0.06%)
Outagamie Co. 3.02% (2012 was +0.08%)
Winnebago Co. 2.83% (no change in 2012)
Washington Co. 2.73% (2012 was +0.03%)
Rock County 2.42% (2012 was +0.10%)
So in terms of a turnout advantage in this year's election vs. 2010, the advantage went slightly to Barrett, especially when you consider that Racine, Rock, and the City of Milwaukee were among the few areas that swung toward Barrett vs. 2010. But along with NE Wisconsin, the other, lower-vote total parts of the state is where Walker really cleaned up, and maintained his 6-7 point advantage.
I'll go more into this later, but I got a killer Brewer tailgate to hit. Catch ya on the flip side.
(EDIT:) I'm back now on Sunday, I wanted to throw in the 2008 turnout figures and see if we had any changes.
% of overall state vote, President 2008
Dane County 9.48% (-0.69% vs. 2012)
City of Milwaukee 9.22% (-0.02% vs. 2012)
Waukesha County 7.81% (-0.72% vs. 2012)
Rest of Milw. Co. 6.71% (+0.18% vs. 2012)
Brown County 4.18% (+0.03% vs. 2012)
Racine County 3.37% (-0.06% vs. 2012)
Outagamie Co. 3.07% (-0.03% vs. 2012)
Winnebago Co. 2.94% (+0.11% vs. 2012)
Rock County 2.65% (+0.13% vs. 2012)
Kenosha County 2.64% (approx. +0.14% vs. 2012)
Washington Co. 2.49% (-0.27% vs. 2012)
So what this shows is that on June 5, Wisconsin;s turnout resembled a low-turnout presidential election, with the composition of the electorate, and this was especially shown with the larger share for the City of Milwaukee. The big exceptions are the pro-Walker counties of Outagamie, Brown and Washington, who all grew their share of the turnout. Waukesha County still had a bigger share than they had in 2008, but you can see where the Milwaukee turnout and other high levels of voting diluted them a bit. Interestingly, Dane County stayed so high in turnout that they stayed above their 2008 levels, and that was with quite a few UW students voting elsewhere (as noted by turnouts below 10-15% in the student dorm wards).
Bottom line, increased turnout generally gave a small boost to Barrett and the Dems, but it was overcome by shifts in votes to Walker in NE and rural Wisconsin, and that's what made the difference Tuesday.
Wednesday, June 6, 2012
So what the hell happened on Election Night- Swings or no swings
Well that was a major letdown (with the exception of the Lehman win giving Dems the Senate). When I heard by 9pm that Walker was being projected the winner while ballots were literally still being cast in Milwaukee and counted in Madison, I was hoping for it to be some kind of mistake that would be reversed with a major turnout and a Barrett win (and wouldn't that have been an amazing ending for this!). Then I got to my girlfriend's place after doing my duty for democracy, and saw this statewide map, and my disbelief turned to "What the fuck???"
So what went wrong that turned what seemed to be a close race into a near-7 point win for Walker? The map tells part of the story, and especially as you look to the north and west in the state. As you'll see, in recent years, Western and Central Wisconsin had trended blue, but that didn't happen yesterday.
So that's what I want to discuss- the swings. Remember, I said that Barrett needed a lot of "springbacks" from the 2010 election back toward Obama's win total in 2008 in order to take this race. Well, that generally didn't happen, and the interactive map shows Walker expanded his lead in several major counties, particularly near Appleton, Green Bay, Wausau and Western Wisconsin.
Major swings to Walker, 2012 vs. 2010
Outagamie Co.- Walker +9.1% to Walker +23.2% (+14.1%)
Brown County- Walker +13.6% to Walker +20.0% (+6.4%).
Waupaca County- Walker +19.6% to Walker +30.0% (+10.4%)
Marathon County- Walker +17,2% to Walker +24.9% (+7.7%)
Trempealeau, Buffalo and Pepin Co's combined- Walker +3.4% to Walker +18.0% (Walker +14.6%).
I have to think those are the places where the money advantage played a big role, as Walker used ads to convince people of a reality that generally didn't exist (because there wasn't a lot of direct appearance of Walker's damage other than some staffing changes at school districts). Also, as John Nichols accurately pointed out, this was an area where Walker's Milwaukee-bashing might have hit home. Those types of swings made a major difference in keeping Barrett's turnout-based larger leads in Dane and Milwaukee Counties at bay (Barrett won those 2 counties by a combined 205,000 votes, or another 42,000 above his 2010 advantage).
There were a few places who swung towards Barrett. Dane County swung 1.7% to Barrett for a 15% springback to '08, and Milwaukee County swung 3.1% to Barrett for a springback of about 24%. Note some other main counties that swung toward Barrett yesterday,
Major swings to Barrett, 2012 vs. 2010
Rock County- Barrett +6.9% to Barrett +12.3% (+5.4%), 24% springback.
Racine County- Walker +13.1% to Walker +6.2% (+5.9%), 29% springback.
Kenosha County- Walker +3.7% to Barrett +1.2% (+4.9%), 21% springback.
Douglas, Bayfield and Ashland Co's Combined- Barrett 18.1% to Barrett +25.8% (+7.7%) 40% springback.
Note that Rock, Racine and Kenosha are all blue collar counties with an industrial heritage. You don't think Walker's union-bashing played a role in them moving to Barrett (and putting Lehman in the Senate over Wangaard)? Paul Ryan should take notice of that, too, since all 3 counties are in the heart of his district. And Douglas, Bayfield and Ashland are in the area where the Mining Bill was written for. Guess it tells you Walker didn't exactly have the support of the locals with that one, did it?
And that does seem to be a pattern. The more you were directly affected by Act 10 and other Walker policies, the more you didn't like the guy. Meanwhile out in the sticks, the damage of Fitzwalkerstan hasn't been easy to see, except for the mill closings around Wausau - I don't know what the hell those people are thinking by standing with Walker, other than showing resentment of people whose lives haven't taken the hits.
The pro-Walker media propaganda and the lack of firsthand experience of Walker's damage probably helped lead to these answers from the New York Times exit poll.
When are recall elections appropriate?
For any reason 27%
Onlt for official misconduct 60%
Never 10%
And since Walker hadn't been charged by John Doe yet, it seems a vast majority of voters were casting ballots in an election that they felt shouldn't happen. If only 3.5% of voters changed their vote from Barrett to Walker on the basis of it being a recall vs. general election, that's the difference in the election right there. I'm thinking that's probably the case.
So this is why Walker hardly has a "mandate" for action or is vindicated in any way- it is likely that a strong reason for his victory is the reluctance of certain voters to remove elected officials before their term is up. All I can say is that I bet a lot of those people will regret that way of thinking within the next 12 months, to all of our detriment.
The other lesson to be learned from the vote swings- the Dems need to become a 72-county party. They have lost the Hwy. 29 corridor and the Northeastern part of the state. The DPW already is good at getting the boots on the ground and voters out in Milwaukee and Madison, but they need to take that same attitude to the rest of the state to get back a lot of the voters they have lost in those areas since 2008.
And it starts with going face-to-face with a strong message of values explaining why we invest in education, respect our environment and demand a chance at an improved life for all Wisconsin citizens, not just the rich and the corporate. What people forget about the recalll movement is that when the Uprising began, a lot of it had a core message of "We do not do business this way in Wisconsin, we're better than this." The Dems need to capture this message and use it positively as a contrast to the constant negativity and division that WisGOP tries to sow. Because if they do, I have a feeling they will stand to make major gains in the next 29 months as the damage of the Fitzwalkerstanis becomes obvious.
So yes, last night was a setback, but it was not a killer. We will fight on, hold these guys accountable, stop and reverse the destruction to the Wisconsin institutions that we hold dear, and restore this state to the great place that we know it to be.
So what went wrong that turned what seemed to be a close race into a near-7 point win for Walker? The map tells part of the story, and especially as you look to the north and west in the state. As you'll see, in recent years, Western and Central Wisconsin had trended blue, but that didn't happen yesterday.
So that's what I want to discuss- the swings. Remember, I said that Barrett needed a lot of "springbacks" from the 2010 election back toward Obama's win total in 2008 in order to take this race. Well, that generally didn't happen, and the interactive map shows Walker expanded his lead in several major counties, particularly near Appleton, Green Bay, Wausau and Western Wisconsin.
Major swings to Walker, 2012 vs. 2010
Outagamie Co.- Walker +9.1% to Walker +23.2% (+14.1%)
Brown County- Walker +13.6% to Walker +20.0% (+6.4%).
Waupaca County- Walker +19.6% to Walker +30.0% (+10.4%)
Marathon County- Walker +17,2% to Walker +24.9% (+7.7%)
Trempealeau, Buffalo and Pepin Co's combined- Walker +3.4% to Walker +18.0% (Walker +14.6%).
I have to think those are the places where the money advantage played a big role, as Walker used ads to convince people of a reality that generally didn't exist (because there wasn't a lot of direct appearance of Walker's damage other than some staffing changes at school districts). Also, as John Nichols accurately pointed out, this was an area where Walker's Milwaukee-bashing might have hit home. Those types of swings made a major difference in keeping Barrett's turnout-based larger leads in Dane and Milwaukee Counties at bay (Barrett won those 2 counties by a combined 205,000 votes, or another 42,000 above his 2010 advantage).
There were a few places who swung towards Barrett. Dane County swung 1.7% to Barrett for a 15% springback to '08, and Milwaukee County swung 3.1% to Barrett for a springback of about 24%. Note some other main counties that swung toward Barrett yesterday,
Major swings to Barrett, 2012 vs. 2010
Rock County- Barrett +6.9% to Barrett +12.3% (+5.4%), 24% springback.
Racine County- Walker +13.1% to Walker +6.2% (+5.9%), 29% springback.
Kenosha County- Walker +3.7% to Barrett +1.2% (+4.9%), 21% springback.
Douglas, Bayfield and Ashland Co's Combined- Barrett 18.1% to Barrett +25.8% (+7.7%) 40% springback.
Note that Rock, Racine and Kenosha are all blue collar counties with an industrial heritage. You don't think Walker's union-bashing played a role in them moving to Barrett (and putting Lehman in the Senate over Wangaard)? Paul Ryan should take notice of that, too, since all 3 counties are in the heart of his district. And Douglas, Bayfield and Ashland are in the area where the Mining Bill was written for. Guess it tells you Walker didn't exactly have the support of the locals with that one, did it?
And that does seem to be a pattern. The more you were directly affected by Act 10 and other Walker policies, the more you didn't like the guy. Meanwhile out in the sticks, the damage of Fitzwalkerstan hasn't been easy to see, except for the mill closings around Wausau - I don't know what the hell those people are thinking by standing with Walker, other than showing resentment of people whose lives haven't taken the hits.
The pro-Walker media propaganda and the lack of firsthand experience of Walker's damage probably helped lead to these answers from the New York Times exit poll.
When are recall elections appropriate?
For any reason 27%
Onlt for official misconduct 60%
Never 10%
And since Walker hadn't been charged by John Doe yet, it seems a vast majority of voters were casting ballots in an election that they felt shouldn't happen. If only 3.5% of voters changed their vote from Barrett to Walker on the basis of it being a recall vs. general election, that's the difference in the election right there. I'm thinking that's probably the case.
So this is why Walker hardly has a "mandate" for action or is vindicated in any way- it is likely that a strong reason for his victory is the reluctance of certain voters to remove elected officials before their term is up. All I can say is that I bet a lot of those people will regret that way of thinking within the next 12 months, to all of our detriment.
The other lesson to be learned from the vote swings- the Dems need to become a 72-county party. They have lost the Hwy. 29 corridor and the Northeastern part of the state. The DPW already is good at getting the boots on the ground and voters out in Milwaukee and Madison, but they need to take that same attitude to the rest of the state to get back a lot of the voters they have lost in those areas since 2008.
And it starts with going face-to-face with a strong message of values explaining why we invest in education, respect our environment and demand a chance at an improved life for all Wisconsin citizens, not just the rich and the corporate. What people forget about the recalll movement is that when the Uprising began, a lot of it had a core message of "We do not do business this way in Wisconsin, we're better than this." The Dems need to capture this message and use it positively as a contrast to the constant negativity and division that WisGOP tries to sow. Because if they do, I have a feeling they will stand to make major gains in the next 29 months as the damage of the Fitzwalkerstanis becomes obvious.
So yes, last night was a setback, but it was not a killer. We will fight on, hold these guys accountable, stop and reverse the destruction to the Wisconsin institutions that we hold dear, and restore this state to the great place that we know it to be.
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