Been tied up with work, family and outside items, so that's why I haven't said much in recent days. But I did get to see Mary Burke in action, and while she can be a bit rehearsed (Mary, you're on our school board, we know who you are), she hit on a surprising number of progressive themes and stands. If she does that, and answers the lies of the right-wing propaganda machine, she could do quite well, indeed.
More to come this weekend, but back to the real world for the short-term.
Thursday, February 13, 2014
Monday, February 10, 2014
It's cold outside, so pay the bills instead of cutting taxes
There have been a couple of interesting updates on the proposed new round of tax cuts and the effects of this awful winter on the state and local budgets.
First of all, as temps are again projected to fall to -20 tonight, we've seen several stories showing the toll this cold and snowy winter is having throughout the state. Salt shortages continue throughout the state, and several places are having to take measures to deal with large amounts of frozen pipes and water main breaks (we had one on our street in Madison last week). This includes Fond du Lac, the cities of Waukesha and West Bend, numerous communities in Western Wisconsin, and in Monona and Reedsburg. This will run up bills for both homeowners and local governments for the water repairs, and also will likely require extra work on the streets for this Spring and Summer.
There are also higher costs coming from huge increases in the costs to heat buildings and homes. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel gave an idea on the level of this hit resulting from this winter.
The recent developments also makes the $43 million proposed for extra road projects nothing more than a token measure that may do little to reduce the needs in the state. That bill is scheduled to be taken up by the full Assembly tomorrow, and while it's nice to accelerate a little road work, it is still slated to be taken out of the Transportation Fund instead of the surplus in the General Fund. That decision means there is even less cushion inside of the Transportation Fund left for this year, and there is still $1 billion in extra Transportation needs unaccounted for in the next budget. That $1 billion was before we figured any emergency funds that might be needed due to the added costs from this winter, by the way.
The Legislature is also still talking about the tax cut package, and there was another development in that today. The Legislative Fiscal Bureau released information on 3 amendments to the package that was passed by the Assembly's Jobs, Economy and Mining Committee (in itself an odd decision by Speaker Robbin' Vos, as the Joint Finance Committee usually takes up budget bills like this). Jason Stein has an article on these provisions and other fiscal bills being taken up (including the $43 million in highway spending), and it looks like the amendments include a targeted giveaway to contractors that do work for non-profits and government buildings. contributor certain party happy. 2. It adds another $40 million to our structural deficit ($20 million less in each of two years), bringing the total deficit near $850 million if all tax cuts and changes were passed.
In addition, the LFB reported today that if all of the tax cuts in the Walker/WisGOP package were to be approved, there would be basically zero breathing room left over the next 17 months of this budget.
Only if you think George W. Bush's Administration's strategy of "cut taxes, run up the deficit, and screw the next one in office" was a good one (this is also known as "starve the beast"). And I thoroughly believe that tying the hands of future (Dem) governors is part of the plan with this puppetmasters of this administration, (whether Governor Walker knows it or not is debatable). This crowd doesn't care how many needs go unmet and what type of condition Wisconsin is left in, as long as they and their campaign contributors got paid first, and got out before the disaster hit.
First of all, as temps are again projected to fall to -20 tonight, we've seen several stories showing the toll this cold and snowy winter is having throughout the state. Salt shortages continue throughout the state, and several places are having to take measures to deal with large amounts of frozen pipes and water main breaks (we had one on our street in Madison last week). This includes Fond du Lac, the cities of Waukesha and West Bend, numerous communities in Western Wisconsin, and in Monona and Reedsburg. This will run up bills for both homeowners and local governments for the water repairs, and also will likely require extra work on the streets for this Spring and Summer.
There are also higher costs coming from huge increases in the costs to heat buildings and homes. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel gave an idea on the level of this hit resulting from this winter.
Frigid January temperatures pushed heating costs for Wisconsin utility customers up by 25% to as much as 40%, depending on the utility.And this was before this latest cold outbreak that could drive those numbers even higher. It would seem prudent to wait to find out how much the increased costs would be, as legislators would look quite foolish if they had to double back and cut something else to pay for these bills later this year.
Back-to-back bitterly cold air masses — those polar vortexes — are to blame for the big run-up in heating costs for customers using natural gas.
Demand for natural gas was so heavy with the frigid weather that We Energies shipped more of the fuel to customers in January than it had done in any other month on record, utility spokesman Brian Manthey said.
The recent developments also makes the $43 million proposed for extra road projects nothing more than a token measure that may do little to reduce the needs in the state. That bill is scheduled to be taken up by the full Assembly tomorrow, and while it's nice to accelerate a little road work, it is still slated to be taken out of the Transportation Fund instead of the surplus in the General Fund. That decision means there is even less cushion inside of the Transportation Fund left for this year, and there is still $1 billion in extra Transportation needs unaccounted for in the next budget. That $1 billion was before we figured any emergency funds that might be needed due to the added costs from this winter, by the way.
The Legislature is also still talking about the tax cut package, and there was another development in that today. The Legislative Fiscal Bureau released information on 3 amendments to the package that was passed by the Assembly's Jobs, Economy and Mining Committee (in itself an odd decision by Speaker Robbin' Vos, as the Joint Finance Committee usually takes up budget bills like this). Jason Stein has an article on these provisions and other fiscal bills being taken up (including the $43 million in highway spending), and it looks like the amendments include a targeted giveaway to contractors that do work for non-profits and government buildings.
AA 4 would extend the exemption from the state sales and use tax to include sales to a construction contractor who makes purchases of tangible personal property and, in fulfillment of a real property construction activity, transfers that property to an exempt entity...provided that the property were to become a component of a facility in Wisconsin that is owned by that exempt entity. For purposes of this exemption, a "facility" would mean any building, shelter, parking lot, parking garage, athletic field, athletic park, storm sewer, or water supply system. "Facility" would not include a highway, street, or road. The proposed exemption would take effect on the day after publication of SS AB 1, and would first apply to contracts entered into on July 1, 2015. The amendment should be modified to also include an effective date of July 1, 2015. Otherwise, the new tax exemption would appear in the statutes for more than one year before it first applies.Two major problems with this 1. You know that amendment is the result of a sketchy situation where some interested party whispered in a legislator's ear (in this case, State Rep. Andre Jacque), and it got thrown in there for no other reason other than making a
In general, construction contractors must pay sales and use taxes on their purchases of taxable goods and services under current law. However, if an entity exempt from the tax purchases property on behalf of the construction contractor, transfers those items to the contractor, and the items become a component of a real property construction in Wisconsin that is owned by the exempt entity, no sales and use tax is collected from the construction contractor under current law. Surveys of construction contractors indicate that many, but not all, local units of government and not-for-profit organizations purchase tax-exempt property to be used by contractors. The Department of Administration's Division of Facilities Development, however, indicates that the state does not purchase taxable property on behalf of state contractors. Based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, state expenditure reports, growth estimates from IHS Global Insight, Inc., and construction contractor surveys, it is estimated that the amendment would reduce state sales and use tax revenues by $20 million, annually, beginning in 2015-16. It should be noted that the estimated reduction in state tax revenue could vary from year to year depending on the number of construction projects authorized and entered into by the tax-exempt entities.
In addition, the LFB reported today that if all of the tax cuts in the Walker/WisGOP package were to be approved, there would be basically zero breathing room left over the next 17 months of this budget.
Recently, the Governor signed into law seven bills dealing with mental health (2013 Acts 126 to 132). For 2013-15, those bills appropriate $4,220,000 from the general fund to various programs. Thus, the transfer to the budget stabilization fund is reduced by that amount to $4,943,800 ($9,163,800 - $4,220,000).It also means that if our revenues fall short of the LFB estimates by even 1%, we will need a significant budget repair bill before the end of June 2015. And by the way, this is before deciding what to do with the state's $93 million Medicaid deficit, or its $43 million W-2 deficit. In addition, the last two months of U.S. job reports have been lackluster, and other reports have shown the economy isn't expanding as fast as predicted. With these factors in mind, and with state and local governments needing funds to take care of expenses resulting from this rough winter, does it make any sense to you to blow a not-yet realized surplus on more tax cuts?
If additional bills are enacted during the current legislative session, the general fund fiscal effect of those bills cannot exceed $4,943,800 if the statutorily required balance of $65 million is to be maintained.
Only if you think George W. Bush's Administration's strategy of "cut taxes, run up the deficit, and screw the next one in office" was a good one (this is also known as "starve the beast"). And I thoroughly believe that tying the hands of future (Dem) governors is part of the plan with this puppetmasters of this administration, (whether Governor Walker knows it or not is debatable). This crowd doesn't care how many needs go unmet and what type of condition Wisconsin is left in, as long as they and their campaign contributors got paid first, and got out before the disaster hit.
Sunday, February 9, 2014
Good Walkergate and voucher scam updates
Two great articles from the Cheddarsphere that you really need to check out.
1. Capper at Cognitive Dissidence had an update on convicted John Doe criminal Kelly Rindfleisch. Seems Kelly was landing ghost jobs with WisGOP connections that went beyond donor (and all-around scumbag) Michael Eisenga.
2. The second update comes from Andy at the Wisconsin Soapbox, and it continues his excellent series on bills that would expand school vouchers and screw over Milwaukee Public Schools. It's a very deep dive, but well worth the read. Here's his summary.
We have to keep doing our reporting, as our "legitimate" media is failing to do their part. Capper and Andy have done great work this weekend.
1. Capper at Cognitive Dissidence had an update on convicted John Doe criminal Kelly Rindfleisch. Seems Kelly was landing ghost jobs with WisGOP connections that went beyond donor (and all-around scumbag) Michael Eisenga.
About a year ago, Rindfleisch got a new gig at a political consulting agency named Cross Rhodes Strategies. The registered agent for this agency is none other than Judith Rhodes Engels. Interestingly, the website that they once had for their agency is no longer to be found. In fact, the only traces my meager Googling skills could find was on a couple of aggregate sites - Find the Company and Bizapedia.Rindfleisch had already been convicted of illegal campaigning by the time Rhodes-Engels' business hired her, which makes it quite the interesting placement, eh? Of course, Rindfleisch was also in the news last week when an Appeals Court judge ordered emails involved in her case to be released to the public. The web involved in John Doe just keeps connecting and expanding with each day. Keep spreading the news, and shame the
Interestingly, sources report that more than a few GOP legislators have Cross Rhodes listed in as an expense in their campaign finance report. Another interesting tidbit is that Engels' husband just received a cushy state job last summer.
We became familiar with Rhodes Engels during the original Walkergate investigations. She is the favorite fundraiser (and really, really special friend) of Senator Scott Fitzgerald. Rhodes Engels is also known for her past caucus scandal involvement and her Harley riding skills. And despite her rub-ins with the law, Rhodes Engels is either a slow learner or just indifferent and got caught getting involved with the gerrymandering scandal, although she should not be involved in governmental business at all.
2. The second update comes from Andy at the Wisconsin Soapbox, and it continues his excellent series on bills that would expand school vouchers and screw over Milwaukee Public Schools. It's a very deep dive, but well worth the read. Here's his summary.
Seriously, if this is the "compromise" that has been put together for this session, still count me out.Looks like there's a hearing in an Assembly Committee this week, and the goofballs in the Robin Vos-run lower house want to push some kind of voucher giveaway so they can grab election-year donations from Scooter Jensen and other lobbyists. Stay vigilant with these guys, as it is not in ALEC's interest to keep Wisconsin's K-12 public education system functioning well- not enough profit in that.
It's not nearly as bad as Sen. Olsen's dead-giveaway to charter operators, but it still does nothing to actually address the problems that our lowest achieving schools have. It also does nothing to give them support to help them improve and do right by our students. It's like they somehow magically think that all the "failing" schools that exist right now have always been failing schools and the people who are there are the same people who've always been there.
Have these people ever spoken to a teacher at one of these schools? Have they ever spoken with a principal at one of these schools? Here's an even better idea, have they ever spoken with or held a public hearing in a neighborhood that sends their children to these schools?
We have to keep doing our reporting, as our "legitimate" media is failing to do their part. Capper and Andy have done great work this weekend.
Redistricting- Waukesha County shouldn't be legislating for Milwaukee and Dane
In the wake of gutless inaction by the GOP-run Legislature, retiring State Senators David Cullen and Dale Schultz are going to have their own hearings on Monday discussing how to install non-partisan redistricting in Wisconsin. In addition to the hearings, Sens. Schultz and Cullen got the LRB to draw up maps under their proposal. Here's an example of the Assembly districts that were produced as a result.
Now compare that to the GOP-drawn maps that we're currently under in Wisconsin.
So how did we end up with the gerrymandered maps looking as they did? Well you start with partisan voting patterns, and distribute accordingly. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's Craig Gilbert wrote a piece this last week showing the divide between Milwaukee County, and the three counties to its west and north- Waukesha, Washington and Ozaukee. The redder a place is on this map, the more Republican it votes, and the bluer a place is, the more Democratic it votes.
Note in particular the purple areas in western Milwaukee County, which are basically the cities of Wauwatosa and West Allis. Those areas used to be split off into their own separate legislative districts before the 2011 redistricting, but aren't anymore, which leads to distortions and more partisanship in the Legislature.
That's because when the Republicans did their secret redistricting, they set up numerous state legislative districts to involve parts of Milwaukee County, but also allowed those purple parts to be drowned out by obnoxious righties in Waukesha County. It's worthy to look into the Daily Kos's index of Wisconsin's 2012 vote in the Baldwin vs. Thompson Senate race by each Assembly and Senate district to see how this works. Baldwin won this race 51.47-45.91%, so a Baldwin (a Dem) winning by 5.54% would be the baseline for the state. All of these seats are "represented" by Republicans, by the way.
5th Senate District (Vukmir)
Milwaukee Co. 49.37% Baldwin, 48.54% Thompson (Dem +0.83%)
Waukesha Co. 32.12% Baldwin, 66.07% Thompson (GOP +33.95%)
13th Assembly District (Hutton)
Milwaukee Co. 47.79% Baldwin, 50.11% Thompson (GOP +2.32%)
Waukesha Co. 31.95% Baldwin, 66.34% Thompson (GOP +34.39%)
14th Assembly District (Kooyenga)
Milwaukee Co. 50.95% Baldwin, 47.32% Thompson (Dem +3.63%)
Waukesha Co. 29.40% Baldwin, 69.12% Thompson (GOP +39.72%)
15th Assembly District (San Felippo)
Milwaukee Co. Baldwin 49.33%, Thompson 48.23% (Dem +1.10%)
Waukesha Co. 35.95% Baldwin, 61.75% Thompson (GOP +25.80%)
The populations of these districts are such that you can nearly create 2 Assembly districts entirely in Milwaukee County and 1 in Waukesha County instead of spreading them all out into both counties, and the Milwaukee County territory would still be slightly GOP-leaning compared to the rest of the state. But doing so wouldn't have helped the GOP grab these seats, which is why they set it up as they did. In every one of these districts, Milwaukee County had slightly more votes than Waukesha County, but it's the stubborn Republicanism of Waukesha County that put each of these legislators over the top, so they legislate like they're from the 262 instead of the 414. If you look at some of the most heinous, anti-Milwaukee legislation that's come up in this session, including the anti-MPS voucher expansion bill and the recent proposal to have an appointed state board oversee Milwaukee's mental health services, you'll notice it often sponsored by legislators such as Vukmir, Kooyenga, San Felippo, Darling, and Lazich, who represent parts of Milwaukee County, but owe their allegiance to the 262. And Milwaukee County is losing out on representation that cares about their interests as a result.
The same phenomenom is true in Dane County, where Republican legislators Joel Kleefisch and John Jagler represent sizable amounts of South Central Wisconsin, despite being former Milwaukee "news" personalities, and despite roundly rejected by South Central Wisconsin in their own races in November 2012.
37th Assembly District (Jagler)
Dane County- Jagler 34.90%, Arnold 65.06% (Jagler -30.16%)
Columbia Co.- Jagler 41.15%, Arnold 58.73% (Jagler (-17.58%)
Jefferson Co.- Jagler 61.84%, Arnold 38.08% (Jagler +23.76%)
Dodge County- Jagler 62.09%, Arnold 37.28% (Jagler +24.81%)
38th Assembly District (Jagler)
Dane County- Kleefisch 36.04%, Michalak 61.30% (Kleefisch -25.26%)
Jefferson Co.- Kleefisch 54.26%, Michalak 43.00% (Kleefisch +11.26%)
Waukesha Co.- Kleefisch 70.39%, Michalak 27.43% (Kleefisch +42.96%)
And the Dane County parts that each of these guys lost by more than 25% aren't insignificant- they accounted for more than 1/5 of the votes in each race. But Jagler and Kleefisch ignore this sizable part of their district because they owe their victory to the counties that extend to the Milwaukee media market, so they vote in favor policies based out of the Milwaukee-based Bradley Foundation and their front men and women on AM radio instead of caring about what many of their constituents think. And so the county that added more people than any other in Wisconsin is basically ignored by some of its "representatives."
No wonder why these unpopular policies are being pushed by GOP legislators. They got elected by the non-Milwaukee and Dane County parts of their constituency, and decide that this makes it their right to make laws for those other places. Even if those places didn't ask for them, and don't support at their local levels of government. And it's also no wonder why the State Senate is backing off a lot of bills like the anti-Milwaukee voucher giveaway, because many of the districts up for re-election include districts closer to a 50-50 split with less Milwaukee influence. These Senators that would be vulnerable include Allan Lasee (1), Mike Ellis (19), Terry Moulton (23), Jerry Petrowski (29), and Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (13, which includes Kleefisch's and Jagler's districts).
Looking at the maps helps to explain the outsized power that the 262 area code has in this legislature (and in WisGOP in general), and it's why so many of these policies seem to be out of step with what the vast majority of the state. Because it's well-documented that politicians from the 262 area code are generated from a Bullshit Mountain of bubble-world that relies on Faux News and AM Milwaukee radio for its "facts", and the Bradley Foundation and ALEC for its policy formation, and as a result, the rest of us all lose. So not only is independent redistricting a good thing to do from a "clean government" standpoint, it's also something that would seem to lead to better public policy as well.
Now compare that to the GOP-drawn maps that we're currently under in Wisconsin.
So how did we end up with the gerrymandered maps looking as they did? Well you start with partisan voting patterns, and distribute accordingly. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's Craig Gilbert wrote a piece this last week showing the divide between Milwaukee County, and the three counties to its west and north- Waukesha, Washington and Ozaukee. The redder a place is on this map, the more Republican it votes, and the bluer a place is, the more Democratic it votes.
Note in particular the purple areas in western Milwaukee County, which are basically the cities of Wauwatosa and West Allis. Those areas used to be split off into their own separate legislative districts before the 2011 redistricting, but aren't anymore, which leads to distortions and more partisanship in the Legislature.
That's because when the Republicans did their secret redistricting, they set up numerous state legislative districts to involve parts of Milwaukee County, but also allowed those purple parts to be drowned out by obnoxious righties in Waukesha County. It's worthy to look into the Daily Kos's index of Wisconsin's 2012 vote in the Baldwin vs. Thompson Senate race by each Assembly and Senate district to see how this works. Baldwin won this race 51.47-45.91%, so a Baldwin (a Dem) winning by 5.54% would be the baseline for the state. All of these seats are "represented" by Republicans, by the way.
5th Senate District (Vukmir)
Milwaukee Co. 49.37% Baldwin, 48.54% Thompson (Dem +0.83%)
Waukesha Co. 32.12% Baldwin, 66.07% Thompson (GOP +33.95%)
13th Assembly District (Hutton)
Milwaukee Co. 47.79% Baldwin, 50.11% Thompson (GOP +2.32%)
Waukesha Co. 31.95% Baldwin, 66.34% Thompson (GOP +34.39%)
14th Assembly District (Kooyenga)
Milwaukee Co. 50.95% Baldwin, 47.32% Thompson (Dem +3.63%)
Waukesha Co. 29.40% Baldwin, 69.12% Thompson (GOP +39.72%)
15th Assembly District (San Felippo)
Milwaukee Co. Baldwin 49.33%, Thompson 48.23% (Dem +1.10%)
Waukesha Co. 35.95% Baldwin, 61.75% Thompson (GOP +25.80%)
The populations of these districts are such that you can nearly create 2 Assembly districts entirely in Milwaukee County and 1 in Waukesha County instead of spreading them all out into both counties, and the Milwaukee County territory would still be slightly GOP-leaning compared to the rest of the state. But doing so wouldn't have helped the GOP grab these seats, which is why they set it up as they did. In every one of these districts, Milwaukee County had slightly more votes than Waukesha County, but it's the stubborn Republicanism of Waukesha County that put each of these legislators over the top, so they legislate like they're from the 262 instead of the 414. If you look at some of the most heinous, anti-Milwaukee legislation that's come up in this session, including the anti-MPS voucher expansion bill and the recent proposal to have an appointed state board oversee Milwaukee's mental health services, you'll notice it often sponsored by legislators such as Vukmir, Kooyenga, San Felippo, Darling, and Lazich, who represent parts of Milwaukee County, but owe their allegiance to the 262. And Milwaukee County is losing out on representation that cares about their interests as a result.
The same phenomenom is true in Dane County, where Republican legislators Joel Kleefisch and John Jagler represent sizable amounts of South Central Wisconsin, despite being former Milwaukee "news" personalities, and despite roundly rejected by South Central Wisconsin in their own races in November 2012.
37th Assembly District (Jagler)
Dane County- Jagler 34.90%, Arnold 65.06% (Jagler -30.16%)
Columbia Co.- Jagler 41.15%, Arnold 58.73% (Jagler (-17.58%)
Jefferson Co.- Jagler 61.84%, Arnold 38.08% (Jagler +23.76%)
Dodge County- Jagler 62.09%, Arnold 37.28% (Jagler +24.81%)
38th Assembly District (Jagler)
Dane County- Kleefisch 36.04%, Michalak 61.30% (Kleefisch -25.26%)
Jefferson Co.- Kleefisch 54.26%, Michalak 43.00% (Kleefisch +11.26%)
Waukesha Co.- Kleefisch 70.39%, Michalak 27.43% (Kleefisch +42.96%)
And the Dane County parts that each of these guys lost by more than 25% aren't insignificant- they accounted for more than 1/5 of the votes in each race. But Jagler and Kleefisch ignore this sizable part of their district because they owe their victory to the counties that extend to the Milwaukee media market, so they vote in favor policies based out of the Milwaukee-based Bradley Foundation and their front men and women on AM radio instead of caring about what many of their constituents think. And so the county that added more people than any other in Wisconsin is basically ignored by some of its "representatives."
No wonder why these unpopular policies are being pushed by GOP legislators. They got elected by the non-Milwaukee and Dane County parts of their constituency, and decide that this makes it their right to make laws for those other places. Even if those places didn't ask for them, and don't support at their local levels of government. And it's also no wonder why the State Senate is backing off a lot of bills like the anti-Milwaukee voucher giveaway, because many of the districts up for re-election include districts closer to a 50-50 split with less Milwaukee influence. These Senators that would be vulnerable include Allan Lasee (1), Mike Ellis (19), Terry Moulton (23), Jerry Petrowski (29), and Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (13, which includes Kleefisch's and Jagler's districts).
Looking at the maps helps to explain the outsized power that the 262 area code has in this legislature (and in WisGOP in general), and it's why so many of these policies seem to be out of step with what the vast majority of the state. Because it's well-documented that politicians from the 262 area code are generated from a Bullshit Mountain of bubble-world that relies on Faux News and AM Milwaukee radio for its "facts", and the Bradley Foundation and ALEC for its policy formation, and as a result, the rest of us all lose. So not only is independent redistricting a good thing to do from a "clean government" standpoint, it's also something that would seem to lead to better public policy as well.
Saturday, February 8, 2014
Obamacare's Bullsh*t Mountain is a symptom of the problem
There's a reason I find Jon Stewart to be the most trusted news man in America, and it's for clips like these. Jon demolishes the GOP talking points on this week's CBO report regarding Obamacare which adds onto what I talked about earlier this week in posts like this one, as well as this one. Strangely, the Daily Show online splits the opening segment into 3 smaller ones, but they're all good, and as an extra bonus Jon calls out Wisconsin's own Lyin' Ryan for his complete contradiction on this subject between 2009 and today.
The fact that GOPs can say such obvious lies and display clear contradictions on Bullshit Mountain goes to a deeper problem, one illustrated by poll released last week by Public Policy Polling. It shows that when nothing but bullshit goes out to certain people, they don't recognize it as bullshit.
Trust Fox News? January 2014
Very conservative 76% yes, 12% no
Somewhat conservative 64% yes, 15% no
Moderate 28% yes, 51% no
Somewhat liberal 18% yes, 73% no
Very liberal 24% yes 70% no
Age 18-29 36% yes, 46% no
Age 30-45 40% yes, 45% no
Age 46-65 42% yes, 43% no
Age over 65 55% yes, 31% no
White 48% yes, 39% no
Hispanic 26% yes, 45% no
African-American 28% yes, 57% no
You look at those numbers, and there's an opportunity for Dems and other candidates to destroy the Republicans on in 2014 and 2016. Everyone other than the pale and stale knows that Fox and other right-wing outlets are lying, but yet far too many Dem candidates succumb to Fox framing and fears of the right-wing noise machine. It would do Dems a lot of good to realize you can't fix the willfully stupid and misinformed, and that the only thing they'll understand is defeat and humiliation. So the best way to make those things happen is to come out strong against these paid liars, which will get the vast majority of the other 65% or so of voters on your side, and wake up a lot of bystanders to just how wrong many of their allegedly "politically aware" conservative associates truly are.
Of course, this can be a bit harder to do in a market like Milwaukee where 95% of the daytime talk radio is dominated by right-wing propaganda. So this is where billboards, rallies, and ads calling out the Sykeses, Bellings, and McKennas need to be done by Democrats and other organizations that give a crap about the future of this state. But when these people are allowed to say the garbage they do, and not have it challenged because there is no Wisconsin equivalent of Jon Stewart, then those false ideas are allowed to fester, along with the bad public policies that generate from those false premises. It has to be ended NOW, and done so forcefully, because Bullshit Mountain has already done more than enough damage to our country over the last 13 years.
The fact that GOPs can say such obvious lies and display clear contradictions on Bullshit Mountain goes to a deeper problem, one illustrated by poll released last week by Public Policy Polling. It shows that when nothing but bullshit goes out to certain people, they don't recognize it as bullshit.
35% of Americans say they trust Fox News more than any other TV news outlet, followed by 14% for PBS, 11% for ABC, 10% for CNN, 9% for CBS, 6% each for Comedy Central and MSNBC, and 3% for NBC. It leads the way because of its continuing near total support among Republicans as the place to go for news- 69% of Republicans say it's their most trusted source with nothing else polling above 7%. Meanwhile Democrats are split between a lot of different outlets when it comes to who they have the most faith in- PBS at 21%, CNN and ABC at 18%, and CBS and MSNBC at 12% all poll in double digits. It's interesting that while Fox News and MSNBC are often thought of as equivalent, Fox News is by far and away the most trusted source of GOP voters while MSNBC is only tied for 4th among Democrats.The numbers are even more striking when you go into the crosstabs, which shows that old, white righties are truly living in a Fox-generated bubble that's separate from the rest of us. Even moderates know that Faux is bullshit.
Fox News also leads the 'least trusted' list in our annual poll. 33% give it that designation to 19% for MSNBC, 14% for Comedy Central, 11% for CNN, 5% for ABC, 4% for CBS, and 2% each for NBC and PBS. That's largely because 57% of Democrats give it their least trusted designation, with only Comedy Central at 18% also hitting double digits with them. MSNBC leads the way among Republicans at 38%, but CNN at 17% and Comedy Central at 13% both hit double digits as well. It's interesting to note that Republicans seem to hate MSNBC more than Democrats like it.
Trust Fox News? January 2014
Very conservative 76% yes, 12% no
Somewhat conservative 64% yes, 15% no
Moderate 28% yes, 51% no
Somewhat liberal 18% yes, 73% no
Very liberal 24% yes 70% no
Age 18-29 36% yes, 46% no
Age 30-45 40% yes, 45% no
Age 46-65 42% yes, 43% no
Age over 65 55% yes, 31% no
White 48% yes, 39% no
Hispanic 26% yes, 45% no
African-American 28% yes, 57% no
You look at those numbers, and there's an opportunity for Dems and other candidates to destroy the Republicans on in 2014 and 2016. Everyone other than the pale and stale knows that Fox and other right-wing outlets are lying, but yet far too many Dem candidates succumb to Fox framing and fears of the right-wing noise machine. It would do Dems a lot of good to realize you can't fix the willfully stupid and misinformed, and that the only thing they'll understand is defeat and humiliation. So the best way to make those things happen is to come out strong against these paid liars, which will get the vast majority of the other 65% or so of voters on your side, and wake up a lot of bystanders to just how wrong many of their allegedly "politically aware" conservative associates truly are.
Of course, this can be a bit harder to do in a market like Milwaukee where 95% of the daytime talk radio is dominated by right-wing propaganda. So this is where billboards, rallies, and ads calling out the Sykeses, Bellings, and McKennas need to be done by Democrats and other organizations that give a crap about the future of this state. But when these people are allowed to say the garbage they do, and not have it challenged because there is no Wisconsin equivalent of Jon Stewart, then those false ideas are allowed to fester, along with the bad public policies that generate from those false premises. It has to be ended NOW, and done so forcefully, because Bullshit Mountain has already done more than enough damage to our country over the last 13 years.
Friday, February 7, 2014
January jobs- no disaster, just keep your eyes peeled
Today was a jobs Friday, and it was a somewhat blah one, with only 113,000 total jobs added in January, although the private sector had a decent gain of 142,000. Also noteworthy is that December's tame job gains were barely revised up (by 1,000, to 75,000), so it makes for two lower-than-trend months of job growth. Weather wasn't named as a major factor in the lower job gains, and in fact, some jobs you'd associate with warmer weather had big gains.
Job gains, January 2013, seasonally adjusted
Construction +48,000
Manufacturing +21,000
Food services and drinking places +14,800
Granted, these "gains" reflect lower-than-normal January layoffs, but it's still worth pointing out, as manufacturing in particular has had a very good run-up in the last four months (82,000 jobs added). Given how manufacturing-heavy Wisconsin is, you'd think this would translate into better gains here (and for the last quarter of 2013, it did).
On the flip side, the household survey had a huge increase (638,000 more listed as "employed" compared to December), which helped drive the unemployment rate down to 6.6%, the lowest it's been since late 2008. The employment-population ratio also jumped up 0.2%, to 58.8%, which is the highest it's been since August 2009.
Also important is this report is that January features the annual benchmarking of jobs numbers, as the BLS adjusts numbers based on additional data that has come in over time. Unlike previous years, the new benchmarks didn't change the story of overall growth for 2013.
So the overall change isn't very different, but let's plug in the new numbers from 2009 forward, and it'll show the slow but steady job growth in the U.S. over the last 4 years.
Dec 2009- Dec 2010- 1.058 million total jobs, 1.277 private sector
Dec 2010- Dec 2011- 2.083 million total jobs, 2.400 private sector
Dec 2011- Dec 2012- 2.236 million total jobs, 2.294 private sector
Dec 2012- Dec 2013- 2.312 million total jobs, 2.368 private sector
On a related note, Wisconsin and the other states will also be benchmarked at the next jobs state report, which we should see in about a month. As I mentioned in an earlier post, if the QCEW is an indication of what Wisconsin's new benchmark should be, this shouldn't change much when we see the update next month (if anything, it'd go down a small amount). And if true, this would keep the Walker jobs gap through the end of 2013 at nearly 43,000 total jobs, and over 52,000 in the private sector.
Looking ahead, I'm starting to fear that we're in a soft patch with the economy, and if wages don't pick up, our growth for earliy 2014 may not be as hot as a lot of the experts were saying. Of course, maybe it's all of these below zero nights that are bringing down my mood, and the underlying economy seems to be bumping along OK. With the state's surplus being projected in no small part due to a strong economic outlook and a booming stock market, it indicates to me that maybe we shouldn't count on all those dollars before they actually come in, and we certainly shouldn't be blowing tax cuts on revenue and job growth that might not necessarily happen.
Job gains, January 2013, seasonally adjusted
Construction +48,000
Manufacturing +21,000
Food services and drinking places +14,800
Granted, these "gains" reflect lower-than-normal January layoffs, but it's still worth pointing out, as manufacturing in particular has had a very good run-up in the last four months (82,000 jobs added). Given how manufacturing-heavy Wisconsin is, you'd think this would translate into better gains here (and for the last quarter of 2013, it did).
On the flip side, the household survey had a huge increase (638,000 more listed as "employed" compared to December), which helped drive the unemployment rate down to 6.6%, the lowest it's been since late 2008. The employment-population ratio also jumped up 0.2%, to 58.8%, which is the highest it's been since August 2009.
Also important is this report is that January features the annual benchmarking of jobs numbers, as the BLS adjusts numbers based on additional data that has come in over time. Unlike previous years, the new benchmarks didn't change the story of overall growth for 2013.
These counts are derived principally from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which enumerates jobs covered by the UI tax system. The benchmark process results in revisions to not seasonally adjusted data from April 2012 forward. Seasonally adjusted data from January 2009 forward are subject to revision. In addition, data for some series prior to 2009, both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, incorporate revisions.
The total nonfarm employment level for March 2013 was revised upward by 369,000 (+347,000 on a not seasonally adjusted basis, or 0.3 percent). The average benchmark revision over the past 10 years was plus or minus 0.3 percent.
This revision incorporates the reclassification of jobs in the QCEW. Private household employment is out of scope for the establishment survey. The QCEW reclassified some private household employment into an industry that is in scope for the establishment survey—services for the elderly and persons with disabilities. This reclassification accounted for an increase of 466,000 jobs in the establishment survey. This increase of 466,000 associated with reclassification was offset by survey error of -119,000 for a total net benchmark revision of +347,000 on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Historical time series have been reconstructed to incorporate these revisions.
The effect of these revisions on the underlying trend in nonfarm payroll employment was minor. For example, the over-the-year change in total nonfarm employment for 2013 was revised from 2,186,000 to 2,322,000 seasonally adjusted.
So the overall change isn't very different, but let's plug in the new numbers from 2009 forward, and it'll show the slow but steady job growth in the U.S. over the last 4 years.
Dec 2009- Dec 2010- 1.058 million total jobs, 1.277 private sector
Dec 2010- Dec 2011- 2.083 million total jobs, 2.400 private sector
Dec 2011- Dec 2012- 2.236 million total jobs, 2.294 private sector
Dec 2012- Dec 2013- 2.312 million total jobs, 2.368 private sector
On a related note, Wisconsin and the other states will also be benchmarked at the next jobs state report, which we should see in about a month. As I mentioned in an earlier post, if the QCEW is an indication of what Wisconsin's new benchmark should be, this shouldn't change much when we see the update next month (if anything, it'd go down a small amount). And if true, this would keep the Walker jobs gap through the end of 2013 at nearly 43,000 total jobs, and over 52,000 in the private sector.
Looking ahead, I'm starting to fear that we're in a soft patch with the economy, and if wages don't pick up, our growth for earliy 2014 may not be as hot as a lot of the experts were saying. Of course, maybe it's all of these below zero nights that are bringing down my mood, and the underlying economy seems to be bumping along OK. With the state's surplus being projected in no small part due to a strong economic outlook and a booming stock market, it indicates to me that maybe we shouldn't count on all those dollars before they actually come in, and we certainly shouldn't be blowing tax cuts on revenue and job growth that might not necessarily happen.
Wednesday, February 5, 2014
Whole lotta Cheeseheads were hanging with the Kochs
Great work from Mother Jones, who has an article out today where they tell you who attended the Koch Brothers' retreat in Palm Springs California last week. Like with most things in the Koch cabal, they try to keep a lid on who's showing up and who's doing these oligarchs' bidding (this is one of the items that John Doe Deux is working on, since they launder these funds), so this is a very big deal. And yes, Peyton Manning' favorite pizza maker is on the list.
Come on out for world domination and drinks in the desert!
And this shouldn't surprise a lot of us in Wisconsin, but we do get an idea on just "who is AFP."
But as Mother Jones shows with the list, Hilgemann isn't the only Koch whore with Wisconsin connections that was at the Palm Springs blowout. Here are some of the others.
And that's why it's sickly ironic that these two guys get fined and convicted in federal court for messing up (Koch-owned) Angel Soft's computer server in 2011, but the Kochs can help to launder hundreds of millions of dollars to political causes and duck the taxes they and their fellow oligarchs should owe, and claim "free speech". I think we got the "lawbreakers" and the "good guys" mixed up here.
Attendees of these summits are warned that the seminars, where the Kochs and their allies hatch strategies for electing Republicans and advancing conservative initiatives on the state and national levels, are strictly confidential; they are cautioned to keep a close eye on their meeting notes and materials. But last week, following the Kochs' first donor gathering of 2014, one attendee left behind a sensitive document at the Renaissance Esmeralda resort outside of Palm Springs, California, where the Kochs and their comrades had spent three days focused on winning the 2014 midterm elections and more. The document lists VIP donors— including John Schnatter, the founder of the Papa John's pizza chain— who were scheduled for one-on-one meetings with representatives of the political, corporate, and philanthropic wings of Kochworld. The one-page document, provided to Mother Jones by a hotel guest who discovered it, offers a fascinating glimpse into the Kochs' political machine and shows how closely intertwined it is with Koch Industries, their $115 billion conglomerate.
The more than 40 donors courted by the Kochs include hedge fund and private-equity billionaires, real estate tycoons, and executives of top corporations, including Jockey International and TRT Holdings, owner of Omni Hotels and Gold's Gym. A number of them have never been identified as members of the Koch donor network, including Schnatter, one of the more prominent names on the list.
Come on out for world domination and drinks in the desert!
And this shouldn't surprise a lot of us in Wisconsin, but we do get an idea on just "who is AFP."
At least half of the one-on-one sessions involved representatives of Americans for Prosperity, the political advocacy group founded by the Koch brothers and their top political adviser and strategist, Richard Fink, a Koch Industries executive vice president and board member. The AFP officials called to duty for these discussions included AFP's president Tim Phillips, chief operating officer Luke Hilgemann, vice president for state operations Teresa Oelke, and vice president for development Chris Fink (Richard Fink's son). The state directors for AFP's Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida chapters were also slated for tête-à -têtes during the Koch summit. (AFP spokesman Levi Russell declined to comment on the meeting document.)Ah yes, Luke Hilgemann, a former Chief of Staff for slimeball State Rep. Scott Suder (who's back in the news for using campaign funds to do some partying of his own). He also used to be a board member at the sketchy United Sportsmen of Wisconsin, and famously boasted "BRING IT!" in relation to the sliminess becoming public. These guys were so "Unintimidated" that United Sportsmen's state grant was rescinded, Suder resigned his seat in the Assembly and Hilgemann high-tailed it to D.C. to work at the AFP corporate offices soon after.
In the past, Koch Industries has distanced itself from AFP and its political activities. The company has said the group is just one of "hundreds of organizations" that receive funding from the Kochs and that it operates "independently" of Koch Industries. But the document suggests a close collaboration between officials of Koch Industries, AFP, and Freedom Partners, whose staff and board are stacked with numerous current and former Koch Industries employees. Michael Lanzara and Jeff Noble, who transitioned over to Freedom Partners from Koch Companies Public Sector—the company's legal, lobbying, and public affairs branch—were scheduled to meet with donors alongside AFP staffers. The Koch brothers and Richard Fink were also listed as taking part in some of these sessions. (Fink, a man of many hats within the Koch firmament, is also an AFP board member; David Koch chairs the board of the Americans for Prosperity Foundation.)
But as Mother Jones shows with the list, Hilgemann isn't the only Koch whore with Wisconsin connections that was at the Palm Springs blowout. Here are some of the others.
DonorsIs it any wonder why Scott Walker was so quick to take that phone call 3 years ago, and asked "David Koch" for help during the Uprising? He knows his owners as well as anyone. And if we don't stop these sickos, we'll be owned by them as well. It's these oligarchs' ultimate end game.
Bob and Steve Fettig: The Fettigs run the metal fabrication company Tankcraft, based in Darien, Wisconsin. Steve is the company's CFO; Bob is CEO.
Debra Waller: Since 2001, she's been the chairman and CEO of [Kenosha-headquartered] Jockey International Inc.
"Players" (read: Koch front men and women)
David Fladeboe: He's the state director for Americans for Prosperity-Wisconsin.
Luke Hilgemann: He's Americans for Prosperity's chief operating officer.
And that's why it's sickly ironic that these two guys get fined and convicted in federal court for messing up (Koch-owned) Angel Soft's computer server in 2011, but the Kochs can help to launder hundreds of millions of dollars to political causes and duck the taxes they and their fellow oligarchs should owe, and claim "free speech". I think we got the "lawbreakers" and the "good guys" mixed up here.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)