With bad June jobs report, Wisconsin completes worst 6 months (so far) under Walker

With the June Wisconsin jobs report looming for release today, I wondered if that was playing a role in Scott Walker's sudden desire to deflect and distract the media with lame anti-Mary Burke ads that are now being called false by Trek's president, and constant (taxpayer-funded) trips to campaign contributors to announce "future expansions." And it turns out I was right to be suspicious.

Turns out that the state lost 1,200 private sector jobs in June, and May was revised to show an extra 500 jobs lost in that month. This now means Wisconsin has lost private sector jobs in 4 of the 6 months of 2014- a time period that the US as a whole GAINED 1.33 MILLION private sector jobs. The only reason Wisconsin's unemployment stayed even at 5.7% was because 7,400 people dropped out of the workforce, and now Wisconsin is only 0.4% below the US rate of 6.1% (it was 1.4% below when Walker took office in January 2011).

With the bad June report coming while the rest of the country was thriving (263,000 private sector jobs added, and 288,000 overall), the Walker jobs gap has jumped quite a bit higher. Wisconsin is now nearly 66,000 private sector jobs below what we'd have if we'd kept up with the US pace, and 56,000 jobs in the hole overall.





Remarkably, while most of the rest of the country seems to be adding jobs at the best pace in years, Wisconsin is getting worse the longer Walker stays in office. The paltry 8,500 private sector jobs added in the first 6 months of 2014 is the lowest half-year total in Scotty's 3 1/2 years in office, and it shows that the strong end of 2013 numbers were a fluke that didn't break the state out of its Walker-led doldrums.



It's also worth mentioning that this 2014 job failure has come in a year where two rounds of income tax cuts have taken effect. Do you need any more proof you need that tax cuts don't create jobs, and that Scott Walker's corporate cronysim and "austerity for those outside of the inner circle" policy isn't the way to go? Well, it shouldn't, but I supposed it won't stop some paid-off hacks and gutless fools from claiming "the jury is still out."

Soryy guys, the jury's back, and this debate doesn't take too long among honest folks. The trickle-down, anti-education Fitzwalkerstanis have failed, and I bet tomorrow's state-by-state jobs report will make them look even worse, if possible.

DHS finally releases Obamacare numbers, and it magnifies the #Walkerfail

1. After weeks of delay, the Wisconsin Department of Health Services finally released numbers showing what happened to the near-poverty group that was thrown off Badgercare as part of Gov Walker's 2013 decision to try to avoid complying with the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare). And contrary to what the Walker Administration claimed last year, most of these people didn't end up getting medical coverage from the exchanges.

The data match that the Department completed with data received from CMS determined how many BadgerCare Plus members who needed to transition into the federal Health Insurance Marketplace because they no longer met program rules as of April 1, 2014 chose to select a qualified health plan through the Marketplace for their private health insurance coverage and were eligible to receive an Advanced Premium Tax Credit.

When CMS and the Department of Health Services finalized Wisconsin’s approach to operationalizing the Affordable Care Act in December 2013, both agencies agreed to establish a way to track the number of people who made the transition to securing coverage through the federal Health Insurance Marketplace. This data match fulfills this requirement.

Below is a summary of the 62,776 transitioning BadgerCare Plus members included in the data match:

24,660 selected a qualified health plan through the Marketplace as of June 13, 2014 or are now eligible for BadgerCare Plus or Medicaid.

18,801 selected a qualified health plan through the Marketplace.

4,867 are on BadgerCare Plus or Medicaid.

992 were flagged as being on BadgerCare Plus/Medicaid and selecting a qualified health plan.

In other words, more than 60% of those parents and caretakers that were kicked off of Badgercare did not get covered by Medicaid or the Obamacare exchanges. That's not a good ratio, if you ask me.

In the AP story on the Medicaid numbers, DHS Secretary Kitty Rhoades and Deputy Secretary Kevin Moore mention that many of the 38,000 others may not be uninsured, but instead could have ended up on other health insurance coverage through work and/or a spouse, and there's some truth to that statement. It's why I'm going to be very interested in the Census Bureau's annual release of uninsured figures, which usually happens around September. Those figures only run through the end of December 2013, so it won't account for the full effect of receiving coverage in 2014 under Obamacare, but we can at least see how we were shaping up before then.

That being said, even if those parents and caretakers were able to get coverage through their work or spouse, it doesn't mention the added out-of-pocket costs that will result from kicking them off of BadgerCare, and the extra strain and reduced spending that causes to other parts of the state's economy.

And the Rhoades and Moore claim that they parents and caretakers with incomes between 133-200% of poverty HAD to be thrown off of BadgerCare isn't quite true. If you look at the Legislative Fiscal Bureau's paper from February 2013 that described options available to the state for health insurance under the ACA, you'll notice that BadgerCare Plus (which most parents and caretakers were covered under) was not affected by the ACA, only the BadgerCare Plus CORE plan, which is for childless adults with incomes between 100-200% of the poverty line- it's a separate program.

The BadgerCare Plus plan was just fine under the ACA, as long as the state chose to pay their share of it. In fact, the LFB paper shows the state would have spent less money if they would have taken the expanded Medicaid funding in the ACA, and continued to cover the 133-200% group of caretakers under BadgerCare Plus, compared to the costs of Walker's plan. Let's use the LFB projections that were made in February 2013, and use Option 4B as the base, because that assumed the highest number of people being covered under the ACA, and therefore the highest state costs for maintaining BadgerCare Plus.

Comparative state costs of Medicaid plans

Option 1- Take expanded Medicaid, cover parents/ caretakers with incomes 133-200% of poverty

FY 2014 $15.5 million
FY 2015 $32.3 million
FY 2016 $33.6 million
FY 2017 $35.1 million

Option 2- Walker plan, don't take expanded Medicaid, don't cover parents/caretakers with incomes 133-200% of poverty

FY 2014 $2.0 million (a low estimate, as we found out)
FY 2015 $56.2 million
FY 2016 $70.6 million
FY 2017 $73.3 million

Difference in costs of taking Option 2 vs Option 1
FY 2014 -$13.5 million
FY 2015 +$23.9 million
FY 2016 +$37.0 million
FY 2017 +$38.2 million
TOTAL +$85.6 million more expensive under Walker plan

So we would have been covering many more people for a lower cost to Wisconsin taxpayers, and without those individuals having to go through the disruption of being kicked off of BadgerCare and having to search for insurance through other means. It is yet more proof that Walker's decision to TeaBag Obamacare is a massive failure on both a fiscal and humanitarian basis, and reason enough to remove this guy from power this November (leaving out all the corruption and the "worst job growth in the Midwest" thing).

Back from up North

Naturally, the day we left Vilas County is the day the clouds started clearing and the temps started to climb above 60, but it's still great to get away for a few days and see some family along with the scenery. Here are a few thoughts.

1. The bad weather probably was a boon to the local businesses on Monday and Tuesday, because people weren't in the mood for outdoor activities. For example, we had to wait 45 minutes for breakfast on Monday at the Wolf Pack Cafe in Saint Germain (I highly recommend it if you're in the area), but today we were able to come right in and get a table. Same held on Tuesday when we were in Minocqua, as the line outside of Paul Bunyan's was nearly out the door by 9:15 am, and Dan's Minocqua Fudge was also packed later that afternoon. The weather may have kept a handful of people from coming up on those days, but I bet that economic loss was more than offset by the captive visitors who headed to the shops.

2. And this area could use the economic help, as they've had a slow start when it comes to the real estate market in 2014. Recently-released numbers from the Wisconsin Realtors Association shows that this area lagged behind the 2013 numbers for Springtime when it comes to home sales. Especially Vilas County.

Home sales, 2nd Quarter 2014 vs. 2013
Oneida County, Q2 2013- 173 sales
Oneida County Q2 2014- 154 sales (-11.0%)

Vilas County Q2 2013- 125 sales
Vilas County Q2 2014- 107 sales (-14.4%)

Oneida County, 1st Half 2014 -3.5% vs 1st Half 2014
Vilas County, 1st Half 2014 -25.1% vs 1st Half 2014

And given the fact that these counties are looking at huge property tax increases because many of the area's school districts are facing significant cuts in state aid for the next year (Northland Pines, Lakeland and Rhinelander are all being cut more than 15%), I have a hard time believing the real estate market will snap back there in the near future.

3. Which makes me think that the Towns of Minocqua and Saint Germain may be good candidates to join other tourist-related Wisconsin communities that can levy a premier resort tax. This is an extra sales tax that can be put onto products sold in these communities, and the Vilas County City of Eagle River has already put a 0.5% premier resort tax in place to transfer some of the tax burden from the local property tax owners onto the tourists. From a quick observation of the area, it would seem that both Minocqua and Saint Germain (and perhaps even the Town of Woodruff) could qualify.

Which municipalities may adopt the premier resort area tax?

A sponsoring municipality or other political subdivision that has at least 40% of its equalized assessed property values used by tourism-related retailers (see the business codes listed in Question 3) may enact an ordinance which puts this tax into effect.
Exception: The cities of Bayfield and Eagle River and the villages of Ephraim, Sister Bay, and Stockholm may, by ordinance, impose the 0.5% premier resort area tax even if less than 40% of the equalized assessed value of the taxable property within those cities or villages is used by tourism-related retailers.

Lake Delton and Wisconsin Dells (the original communities that levied this extra sales tax in 1998) just increased their tax from 1.0% to 1.25% at the start of this month, and the Pepin County village of Stockholm will become the 5th Wisconsin community that will add the premier resort tax on October 1. Given the increased cuts to local schools and government in the age of Fitzwalkerstan, local taxes and fees have become a more common solution to solve the budget issues that result, and with a slow state economy not allowing for the tax base to grow, expect this issue to come up in many places this Fall as communities and districts try to keep their property tax rates from going through the roof for 2015.

So now I'm back in the Mad City and getting back to the world of work tomorrow. But it's always illuminating to take the 4-hour trip North, reduce my scanning of the sources such as the Wheeler Report and Wisconsin newspapers and documents, and see what life looks like outside of the big town. Given the headlines from the last couple of days, it sure appears that a lot of issues are in the process of blowing up in the coming days and weeks that I have to read up on.

Greetings from Fall in the Northwoods!

Current temperature- 52 and rainy, just like yesterday. I'll be back to writing when I'm back in the big city and it's back to being Summer. The only economic positive of this is that the line was out the door at Paul Bunyan's in Minocqua today, because people aren't hitting the lakes this morning.

Killing zombie lies before I head up North

Heading up North tomorrow to Vilas County for a 3-day family reunion....just in time for the Summer Polar Vortex to hit (strangely, this may help some tourist places up there, since hanging at the lake will get replaced by going to bars, shopping and buying stuff).

But before I go, I wanted to show this excellent New Rule from Bill Maher, especially the ender (which starts at 2:12). While Maher wrongfully tries to take credit with coining the term "zombie lies" (I've heard Krugman use this and similar phrases for years), he rightfully points out that pretty much all Republicans have these days are chanting lies that have been disproven outside of right-wing bubble world. Maher focuses on Obamacare, but it also goes into the fallacies of trickle-down economics and similar GOP faith-based garbage that should get them kicked out of any legitimate Green Room, but for some reason does not.



I had a Twitter exchange with some idiot TeaBag from the 262 today who claimed that Minnesota's surplus (noted in this previous post) was proof that they "were taxing too much" and that tax cuts were the solution to this "problem." After slamming my head on my desk, I reminded the person that this approach of blowing surpluses on tax cuts has been tried (examples include Bush 2001, Walker 2013-14), and it has failed miserably, resulting in subpar job growth and budget deficits, and that perhaps saving funds for a rainy day was a wiser choice.

But somehow these idiots keep beLIEving that if taxes get cut, somehow their lottery ticket will come in, or that they'll be chosen to become part of the "inner circle", and they'll live happily ever after. And they cling to those zombie lies and fantasies despite nearly 35 years of proof that cutting taxes on the rich and corporate just encourages hoarding of profits and productivity, and has been a main driver of the Gilded Age-levels of inequality that we see today. What a bunch of suckers.

Meanwhile, across the Saint Croix

Interesting tidbit from Minnesota at the end of this week, and I didn't see this news make its way too far east.

MINNEAPOLIS — State tax collections beat expectations for the final three months of the fiscal year, and Minnesota is now expected to finish the fiscal year with $168 million more in revenues than projected in February, state finance officials said Thursday...

According to the quarterly update, state revenues for April, May and June were $235 million more than forecast. That followed a few months of disappointing figures.

Minnesota Management and Budget said the state raised $181 million more in individual income taxes than expected during the quarter. Most of that was because Minnesotans paid more in 2013 income taxes than expected, and tax refunds were below estimates.

Sales tax revenues also exceeded forecasts. While corporate tax collections were $53 million less than expected, officials say big swings in corporate taxes are not unusual.

By contrast, us in Wisconsin didn't get surging income tax revenues, and are now around $200 million in the hole, with a real possiblity of that number growing higher (if blog groupie GeoffT's numbers bear out).

Of course, Minnesota also didn't blow their 2013 budget surplus on Koo-Koo tax cuts, and it let them remain fiscally sound through a polar vortex winter and the country's decline in 1st Quarter GDP. By comparison, us in Wisconsin have $2 billion in deficits projected for 2015, and a few hundred million that'll likely have to be filled just to pay the bills early next year. But we apparently do have enough around to triple the amount of money spent on our "Unintimidated" Governor's security detail and have Walker cronies get jobs they have no formal experience in, and get paid 31% above the previous person that had the job.

Minnesota is run entirely by Dems, and Wisconsin is run entirely by Republicans. Any questions?

Journal-Sentinel covers up WEDC story to curry right-wing business favor, $$$

A bombshell of a story broke this week involving the increasingly failed and sketchy Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation (WEDC). We'll let WKOW Channel 27 in Madison give you the details with the video below. Basically it shows that not only have WEDC tax credits been handed out like candy while the state has the worst job record in the Midwest over the last 3 years, but in some cases, those companies end up outsourcing jobs from Wisconsin, while keeping the tax write-offs.



WKOW later added information showing executives from Plexus had given significant donations to the Walker campaign in recent years, with Eaton being less involved in the quid pro quo .

Members of the board of directors for two companies that outsourced Wisconsin jobs after accepting financial incentives from the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation have donated close to $20,000 to Gov. Scott Walker's campaigns since 2005.

Wisconsin campaign finance records show Plexus Corp. board members David Drury and Ralf Boer have each made donations to Walker's campaign. Boer, an attorney and partner in the Foley and Lardner law firm in Milwaukee, has donated a total of $2,300 to the Walker campaign since 2006. Drury, the CEO of Poblocki Sign Company in Milwaukee, has donated $15,800 to Walker's campaign since 2005.

One board member for the Eaton Corp., Gregory Page, an executive with Cargill in Minnesota, made a single donation of $1,000 to the Governor's campaign in 2013.

Amazingly, while the Minneapolis Star-Tribune and several smaller Wisconsin community newspapers have carried the story, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel and Madison.com have yet to say a word on it, despite it being nearly 2 full days since WKOW in Madison went on the air with this revelation.

And there’s an extra layer to this sickening story, with added relevance due to the events of this week. In May 2012, 3 weeks before he faced the voters in a recall election, Governor Walker made an appearance at Plexus Corporation to announce that the company was going to add jobs in the Neenah area, with the help of WEDC tax credits. Doubly interesting is the fact that the Walker website has been scrubbed of this announcement, but Blogging Blue still has their post from 2012 about it, as well as the failure to add those jobs later on.

Plexus Corp., Neenah, is planning to create up to 350 jobs related to the company’s decision to establish a state-of-the-art manufacturing facility in Neenah. The company is eligible for $15 million in enterprise zone tax credits through the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation (WEDC).

“This is a tremendous job creation investment being made by Plexus Corp. with the support of the state and city of Neenah," said Governor Scott Walker. “The decision by Plexus to do this major expansion and cement its operations in Neenah reflects the positive direction Wisconsin is heading.”

Plexus Corp.’s proposed 410,000 square foot manufacturing facility will be the showcase for U.S. operations and provide for the increased space needed for future manufacturing requirements. The facility will cement the Fox Cities as the company’s Americas Epicenter.

Well, it didn’t quite work out that way, now did it? Also worth noting, the July 2012 J-S story about Plexus’s layoffs didn’t mention the Walker visit or the WEDC tax credits, but it had no problem running the lie of “Plexus is creating jobs” before the election. So that move ended up being a “win” for Team Walker as well as for the Plexus stockholders and executives who got $4.7 million of those tax credits. But it’s a massive loss for everyone else.

As for the other outsourcer, Eaton Corp was back this February playing the same game, throwing out a press release and media event, complete with quotes by Walker and WEDC CEO Reed Hall, claiming that business was booming with WEDC’s help.

MADISON, WI. February 10, 2014 – Power management company Eaton today announced a $54 million investment in its Waukesha-based Cooper Power Systems business. The project, which calls for expanding one facility and renovating two others, will help Eaton meet growing demand for its utility, commercial and industrial power distribution products and solutions.

The Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation (WEDC) is providing up to $1.36 million in tax credits for the project that could create as many as 200 jobs in the region over the next two years.

“There is no question that energy is a vital and growing component of Wisconsin’s economy, and power management is an important part of that sector,” said Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. “This project not only solidifies Eaton’s commitment to Wisconsin, but also is an indication that the company is continuing to look toward the future.”

Hmmm, given that Eaton sent Wisconsin jobs to Mexico after getting its last round of tax credits ($190,000, according to WKOW), I guess we can count on the next outsourcing to be around 2015 or 2016? Or will they just add no one after the video cameras have gone away and the votes have been cast?

The actions of Eaton and Plexus makes me extremely skeptical about Briggs and Stratton’s announcement this week that they were planning to add as many as 370 jobs at their plant in Wauwatosa. I’m especially cynical about this because Todd Teske, Briggs and Stratton’s CEO, just ended a two-year tenure as the Chairman of the Board of Directors at Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce (aka one of the biggest front groups for Scott Walker and WisGOP). Add in the fact that Briggs and Stratton employees have overwhelmingly given to Republicans over the years, including over $30,000 to Scott Walker, and you can’t help but think these guys might want to claim they’ll create jobs ahead of an election in order to help out Walker’s flailing campaign.

And what has the flailing governor promised Briggs and Stratton in return? Looks like we might find out shortly, as the Milwaukee Business Journal is now reporting that maybe there are a few tax breaks coming the company’s way. In fact, Briggs and Stratton officials are basically admitting they’ll be getting some kind of write-off, and went out of their way to claim Walker tax giveaways as a reason they’ll shift jobs from right-to-work Georgia.

“We’ve been part of the Milwaukee community for 106 years and we had the capacity to move the production to Wauwatosa,” [VP of Corporate Communications and Public Affairs Laura] Timm said. “We also saw an improved business climate. We don’t want to go into a lot of details about it, but from a tax, business climate and employee base -- it made sense to bring the work here."

A portion of the 475 employee-workforce from the Georgia facility are moving to the Wauwatosa plant, Timm said.

Company officials are also in preliminary discussions with the Wisconsin Economic Development Corp. and the city of Wauwatosa to see what financial incentives Briggs might be able to receive in connection with the move.

If they’re actually going to move the jobs to Wisconsin (and it's a big “if”), I bet those discussions are not “preliminary”. More like “decided, but we don’t want to let you know how much taxpayers will have to pick up.”

Of course, the J-S part of JournalComm ignored that issue entirely, dutifully running the Briggs and Stratton job announcement, burying the tax credit talk well down into the article, and never asking if the jobs would actually ever appear. They just blasted the “jobs are coming” headline within hours of the Briggs and Stratton announcement, and used a quote from Dan Ariens of Ariens Manufacturing, without mentioning that Ariens had just succeeded Teske as WMC’s Chairman of the Board. At the same, (coincidentally I’m sure), the J-S is still failing to mention the outsourcing scandals and empty promises from previous WEDC recipients Plexus and Eaton Corp., and asking WEDC CEO Reed Hall if any type of safeguards might be included to keep the same thing from happening at Briggs and Stratton.

I was able to put together this information in a matter of a couple of hours using the Internet and the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign's database, so why can't reporters with a background in this stuff not do the same? I fear it has a whole lot to do with the J-S seeing the $7.6 million cash on hand that Walker has, and wanting to make sure their company gets a sizable portion of that money. Which means they have a natural conflict of interest when it comes to how they cover Walker and his business allies at places like Briggs and Stratton.

Which is why we must keep drawing attention to the failures of the J-S and their fellow media outlets, exposing those failures to the public, and we must make these people and the corporations they work for pay a high price for their dereliction of duty. Because these jobs stories (and the type of coverage they do or do not get) have shown yet again that JournalComm cannot be expected to play it straight when it comes to telling the full story about the corruption and subpar results of their boy Scotty.

Angry yet?