Chuck Todd and other political media exposed as gutless tools

If you wonder why the political establishment and reality often seems to be going in two different directions these days, this exchange from Sunday’s episode of “Meet the Press” might give you a good idea.

MTP host Chuck Todd decided to have a roundtable of comedians for this Holiday week, which isn’t a bad idea on the surface, since it’d likely be more interesting and honest than the white male right-wing politicians that dominate these programs. Daily Kos poster Egberto Willies wrote a great summary of this roundtable, and how the always-awesome Lewis Black exposed Todd as a fraud by asking Chuckles why he doesn’t call BS on his guests.

I have watched you and everybody else where somebody comes on," Lewis Black said. "I don't know how you do it. Because I would be barking at them. Because they sit there and go 'glib glib [blah blah]' and you sit there."

Chuck Todd then interjected. "We all sit there because we all know the first time we bark is the last time we do the show," Chuck Todd said. "... All of a sudden, no one will come on your show."

W. Kamau Bell came in with an interesting point. He said that many times the traditional mainstream media uses the comedian's satire to say what they dare not say. In effect comedians get to bark. He points out an interesting exception.

"The weird thing is that Fox News also gets to bark," W. Kamau Bell said "And I think sometimes the left leaning media is afraid of barking."

Yeah, it is kind of weird how right-wing media gets to hammer and demonize their opponents, but lefties don’t. Almost like there’s a double-standard in honesty and decency or something. (and yes, Charlie also has a great post on that today)

As usual, Esquire Magazine’s Charlie Pierce was on point with his summary of Todd’s embarrassing admission.

The problem with MTP never has been the hosts, although they could be better. The problem is that the format is obsolete, which is demonstrated quite clearly by the panels put together on MSNBC's weekend morning shows -- academics, and state politicians, and, occasionally, ordinary citizens who have latched into a cause, all viewpoints that almost never get aired anywhere else, and undeniably fresh ones. Does my man Chuck Todd really go through life concerned that he will lose the 90,763rd interview with John McCain if he points out that McCain really doesn't know fck all about much of anything? This makes me very sad. Kill this program now before it takes you all down with it and we have to escape down the mountain in a Sno-Cat.

As Pierce mentions, the real story is that Chuck Todd is admitting GETTING ACCESS TRUMPS THE TRUTH when it comes to political “reporting” these days. This is the same Chuck Todd who admitted last year that it wasn’t the media’s job to correct GOP lies and present facts regarding what was (and was not) part of the Affordable Care Act. In Chuck Todd’s world, facts take a back to seat to how much two sides can “sell” their side of an issue. Related to that, calling out liars for their BS and giving the record of the results of failed policies can jeopardize a relationship with politicians, so giving a bystanding public the information they need takes a backseat to cozying up to current and future guests.

We see the same situation here in Wisconsin, where the “journalists” at Journal Communications and other state media see a gravy train of opportunity with Scott Walker’s political career, and have consistently decided to play dumb and let this dishonest dimwit throw his statements out in public without a direct challenge. Don’t believe me? Remember how Scotty ended up blubbering on the campaign trail regarding Medicaid expansion when someone did the rare act of asking a follow-up question?



This lack of understanding of a huge health issue should disqualify any candidate in a society that valued competence, honesty, and respect for the common welfare- you know, stuff that public officials are supposed to have and stuff the media is supposed to hold them to account for. But since our state’s media relies on Walker/ WisGOP ad revenue and sources for their broadcasts and “news” stories, they won’t pull this routine too often, even if it destroys our state’s reputation and economy in the process. After all, these “chucktodd”-style journalists work for their corporate bosses, and not the public.

Reducing the state's talent pool- is that the Fitzwalkerstani plan?

Is draining the state of certain Dem-leaning voters a plan of Governor Scott Walker and the Fitzwalkerstanis in control of the State Legislature? That's a theory of James Rowen's in the Political Environment, and I think it has some legitimacy. Take a look at what James has to say, and then I'll add my own analysis of his theory, and the way these things are progressing (or regressing) in Fitzwalkerstan.

And in Wisconsin, Wrong-Way Walker has cut some poor people's take-home pay by raising their taxes - - breaking a promise to raise no taxes - - and he intends to further degrade those with the least through a mandatory, guilt-assumed drug test before releasing federal food stamp assistance he has also failed to fully expand.

I've said here that Walker is following a southern strategy of sorts to win what Capital Times editor Paul Fanlund brilliantly called the base GOP resentment vote, and I'm not kidding when I say Walker's ultimate goal is to use state power to force the poor - - and others - - to leave the state by any means possible so the GOP can seal control of the state's electoral votes....

Throw in forward-looking millennials, entrepreneurs, families and seniors who can choose to work, vacation or retire to states without government-sponsored hostility towards voting rights, pay equity for women, and health care for low-income residents, particularly females, unions and collective bargaining, public schools, same-sex marriage, transit, environmental protection, Native American culture and clean energy and you can see why people are beginning to call our one-party state Wississippi.

Sadly, this hypothesis makes some sense to me, especially on the higher-end of the spectrum. If you encourage people who value a high quality of life to seek it elsewhere, then look at what remains.

1. A state filled with pissed-off white guys who are too tied down or scared to move on to better places (go look at the reddening of Northeastern Wisconsin to see how this has worked over the last 20 years)

2. Mediocre middle managers and CEOs and other oligarchs with "big fish, small pond" syndrome that fear up-and-comers who might threaten their current place in society (which defines the Scott Walker fan club in the 262. It also describes the weak-mindedness that has driven many young people with talent to go into the cities of Madison and Milwaukee, if not out of the state entirely).

Don't believe there's correlation in voting between places who value education and produce educated, high-income workers, and those that places who don't? Let's compare the 3-year Census estimates for 2011-2013 for both median household income, and the percentage of the population with at least a bachelor's degree. And let's see which states fall into the top 16 for both categories, and the bottom 16, to represent the top third of the country, then cross-check them with whether these states voted Dem or Republican for president in 2012.

Top third for both income and education
Massachusetts - blue
Colorado - blue
Connecticut- blue
New Jersey- blue
Maryland- blue
Virginia- blue
New Hampshire- blue
Utah-red
Washington - blue
Rhode Island- blue
Minnesota- blue
California- blue

Pretty clear correlation there, and Utah's difference in voting can be drawn directly to the Mormonism of the area (it's a standout for red states in many "quality of life" statistics). Also note the one Midwestern state in this group are our friends across the St. Croix- who have been kicking our ass fiscally and economically for the last four years.

Bottom third for both income and education
West Virginia - red
Mississippi- red
Arkansas- red
Louisiana- red
Kentucky- red
Nevada- blue
Alabama- red
Indiana- red
Oklahoma- red
Tennessee- red
South Carolina- red

A whole lot of Confederacy here, with only Nevada as the exception (as sort of the amoral bizarro world of Utah). Also note the one state in this group from the Midwest- Indiana, which is sort of the "red middle finger" into the Midwest when you look at the red-and-blue map from 2012.

So where's Wisconsin in this list? 31st for education and 19th for income. So if you were Scott Walker and you wanted to carry out the dream of your top donors of becoming a "completely red state", it seems like you'd be OK with pushing down incomes and education levels, to make us more like Indiana and Mississippi than Minnesota or Massachusetts.

What does that mean for policy? It means degrading of the quality of life and having racial tension piss off open-minded people, and drive them out of the area to more tolerant places. It also includes de-emphasizing entrepreneurship and high-skill jobs so those types of people choose to move elsewhere (Colorado and Virginia's turns toward blue-voting are great examples of places that have benefitted from this), which keeps the current set of business oligarchs in control. And it also means driving down the wages of those who do stay, so they're more destitute and resentful of "others" instead of demanding a better wage and life for themselves.

This is where I differ with Rowen's declaration that Walker wants the poor to leave Wisconsin - he and WisGOP needs them as a distracting scapegoat for mediocre whites to get angry at for "being lazy takers," and to allow those same whites not to ask questions about their own losing lot in life. And as long as angry, dumb white people continue to fall for it, the Fitzwalkerstanis can continue these regressive policies that throw more money and power to the rich and well-connected. They'd just better hope there aren't a lot of thinkers among the working-class that wake up one day and realize they're being duped and driven down, because I bet they'll be none too happy with how they and the rest of the state has fallen.

Big-picture economy rolling right along

Right before Christmas, we got more indications that the U.S. economy is closing out on a high note for 2014. The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised up the nation's growth in Gross Domestic Product in the 3rd Quarter of 2014, from 3.5% up to 5.0%. Increased amounts of inventories and other business spending raised the number to this high level, and when combined with the 4.6% growth in Q2, it now makes 3% GDP growth for 2014 a real possibility, even with the polar vortex causing a temporary cutback in Q1. It now puts the Obama Recovery back on its track, and you can see the growth picking up over the last two quarters.





This week also gave new indications of good income growth (up 0.4% in November), and a good rise in real disposable income (up 0.5% for that month). These numbers reflect not only increases in money coming in, but also the drop in gas prices causing slight deflation for November. with the decline in price levels over the last couple of months (especially in gasoline). Combine that with the DOW closing over 18,000 for the first time ever (if you're lucky enough to own the right stocks), and it seems like good times nationwide.

Yes, there are still serious inequality issues and a long way to go before it seems like the 1990s anywhere but Wall Street, and let's not lose sight of that. But 2014's economic performance has definitely killed the idea that newly-installed higher capital gains taxes would lead to people to pull out of the stock market. And it also proves that the first year of Obamacare insurance exchanges haven't exactly been the economy-killer that the Tea Party crowd kept telling us it would. In fact, there's strong evidence coming in that the number of people getting insurance through those exchanges for next year is significantly higher than what the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services predicted.

So why would we ever listen to policy advice from the trickle-down dimwits and anti-Obamacare TeaBags that have gotten it all wrong for the last five years?

P.S. Here's UW Professor Menzie Chinn's take on the strong GDP numbers from the Econbrowser blog.

Hidden revenue report shows Wisconsin still in the budget ditch

With the acquittal in the killing of Dontre Hamilton taking up a lot of the interest of the media in Wisconsin’s largest media market, it allowed the Walker Administration to drop the report of the state’s November tax revenues on Monday. And as I figured, the reason they were hiding the numbers are because they're not good, as overall tax collections were down even more in November, and for the fiscal year as a whole. We’ll use the adjusted figures from the Department of Revenue, as they reflect end-of-the-month money that was earned in November, but wasn’t counted until December due to the 30th being over a weekend.

Wisconsin Gen. Fund Tax Revenues, FY 2014 vs FY 2015, YTD
FY2014 $5.258 billion
FY2015 $5.113 billion (-2.8%)

Income taxes have been really off, down 7.3% in November 2014, and 6.3% for the first 5 months of Fiscal Year 2015. That being said, some of that can be explained due to the decrease in withholdings that was done to "show" people the effect of the Koo-Koo tax cuts from 2013, along with other gimmicks. Based on LFB projections, this means that $55 million a month is not being taken out at this time in FY2015 vs FY2014, so we should add that to the income tax totals to get a true idea on how things look (it's also fair to adjust upwards because tax refunds will be less in early 2015 to make up for the lower withholdings. Cool, huh?).

When you add $275 million in income taxes to the total, it turns that number to a positive, but not by much (2.3%). This is well behind the 6.21% increase in income taxes for 2014-15 that the DOR projected in its estimates last month. That report still projected a $132 million shortfall between now and June 30, even with the rosy revenue figures.

Let’s plug in the adjusted year-to-date 2.3% increase in income taxes along with the strong 4.94% increase in sales taxes (this is the one good part of the revenue report), and assume corporate taxes get out of its current 5.9% hole and wind up being even with 2014’s figures. With excise and other taxes largely barely below predictions (I'd estimate them to be $20 million above last year's total, which would be $4.1 million short of the DOR estimates in total), here’s what revenues end up being in comparison with the DOR estimates.

Income tax -$276.0 million
Sales tax +37.2 million
Corporate tax -$41.1 million
Excise and al other taxes -4.1 million
TOTAL SHORTFALL $284.0 million

Add that $284 million shortfall on top of the $132 million we're already short, and that number becomes a $416 million hole that must be made up in the next 6 1/2 months. It also leaves us further in the ditch for the next budget, above the $2 billion in deficits that I estimated at the end of last week.



Can't say we didn't try to warn you when it happened, and when the election campaign was going on. But apparently too many people were paid off to tell the truth, and too many others were too gutless to ask when the bill was going to come due from these Election-based tax cut stunts. And now we're all going to suffer the consequences for this fiscal recklessness.

Kareem and Jon Stewart say it better on cops

Today’s news about a Milwaukee police officer getting off without charges for killing the unarmed Dontre Hamilton in downtown Milwaukee have made an already sad year seem even dimmer. I could say a lot on the recent spate of uprisings against police violence and the right-wing reaction to the sickening murders of two police officers in New York City subject (and did some on Saturday), but others often sum up thoughts better than I can.

One of those is NBA great Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s piece in Time today, where he gives his usual deep thoughts into an issue that is more complex than the “protestors hate all police” confrontation that our corporate media wants to simplify it down to. It’s also of note that Kareem was raised in New York City, and has a family background that gives him added insight above many others running their mouths today.

The recent brutal murder of two Brooklyn police officers, Rafael Ramos and Wenjian Liu, is a national tragedy that should inspire nationwide mourning. Both my grandfather and father were police officers, so I appreciate what a difficult and dangerous profession law enforcement is. We need to value and celebrate the many officers dedicated to protecting the public and nourishing our justice system. It’s a job most of us don’t have the courage to do.

At the same time, however, we need to understand that their deaths are in no way related to the massive protests against systemic abuses of the justice system as symbolized by the recent deaths—also national tragedies—of Eric Garner, Akai Gurley, and Michael Brown. Ismaaiyl Brinsley, the suicidal killer, wasn’t an impassioned activist expressing political frustration, he was a troubled man who had shot his girlfriend earlier that same day. He even Instagrammed warnings of his violent intentions. None of this is the behavior of a sane man or rational activist. The protests are no more to blame for his actions than The Catcher in the Rye was for the murder of John Lennon or the movie Taxi Driver for the attempted assassination of Ronald Reagan. Crazy has its own twisted logic and it is in no way related to the rational cause-and-effect world the rest of us attempt to create.

Those who are trying to connect the murders of the officers with the thousands of articulate and peaceful protestors across America are being deliberately misleading in a cynical and selfish effort to turn public sentiment against the protestors. This is the same strategy used when trying to lump in the violence and looting with the legitimate protestors, who have disavowed that behavior. They hope to misdirect public attention and emotion in order to stop the protests and the progressive changes that have already resulted. Shaming and blaming is a lot easier than addressing legitimate claims….

In a Dec. 21, 2014 article about the shooting, the Los Angeles Times referred to the New York City protests as “anti-police marches,” which is grossly inaccurate and illustrates the problem of perception the protestors are battling. The marches are meant to raise awareness of double standards, lack of adequate police candidate screening, and insufficient training that have resulted in unnecessary killings. Police are not under attack, institutionalized racism is. Trying to remove sexually abusive priests is not an attack on Catholicism, nor is removing ineffective teachers an attack on education. Bad apples, bad training, and bad officials who blindly protect them, are the enemy. And any institution worth saving should want to eliminate them, too.

This last part sticks with me the most. I’m all for union protections and solidarity with your fellow worker, but there needs to be an understanding that one person doing injury to the profession is doing injury to all in the profession. And these bad cops have made all cops (including the vast majority of them that do their jobs with honor and dignity) into people now viewed with suspicion and mistrust by a sizable amount of the public.

Instead of standing behind the blue line, they need to be speaking out and removing these cancers that cannot handle the responsibilities of the job of being a law enforcement officer, and urging their union not to reflexively support these bad cops. Everyday officers certainly shouldn’t be cool with letting cynical opportunists fan the flames of anger higher with outlandish public statements about how Mayor DeBlasio or President Obama have “blood on their hands.” Those irresponsible (and wrong) statements will only lead to more good cops being put in danger, which I have a hard time believing is something in the best interests of police officers.

Lastly, I’ll leave with an excellent quote given out by another New Yorker, and a rare member of the media who still believes in getting to the heart of a story over providing two sides of spin. Remarkably, the comment was made a couple of weeks prior to this weekend.



Why are comedians and basketball players the ones saying the most sensible things these days? Where is similar level-headedness, leadership, honesty from most of “legitimate” our media figures? Does money and ratings trump all resemblance of decency and to avoid making sour society even angrier and more divided than it already is? 

Yes, we should make people uncomfortable with what's going on

I see some people who are sympathetic to the "Black Lives Matter" movement against police brutality are still upset by any outward disruption that puts these protests in front of them. A good example is the whining from many white people about the dozens of people arrested after blocking I-43 northbound in Milwaukee last night to complain about the lack of charges against officers who killed the unarmed Dontre Hamilton in April. Another example include the numerous die-ins and other protests that took place at shopping malls on the last Saturday before Christmas, including a huge one that shut down the Mall of America in Minnesota for a spell. This no doubt annoyed shoppers who were trying to complete their lists, and maybe angered a few that didn't want to deal with the issue.

But there's a part of me that kinda likes that these people are made uncomfortable. People need to see and feel the reality in front of them, because the inability to empathize to others is one of this country's biggest failures today, and if these people end up having to think about the issue and go through a bit of annoyance in the process, that's not necessarily a bad thing. Once you're directly affected and forced to have some kind of skin in the game, no matter how fleeting, it can keep those issues aware in your mind, and makes discussion and action more likely.

And to those with hurt fee-fees from having to deal with these issues, and are unhappy about their day-to-day being disrupted? I note this passage from Dr. Martin Luther King's "Letter from a Birmingham Jail", in April 1963.

...I must confess that over the past few years I have been gravely disappointed with the white moderate. I have almost reached the regrettable conclusion that the Negro's great stumbling block in his stride toward freedom is not the White Citizen's Counciler or the Ku Klux Klanner, but the white moderate, who is more devoted to "order" than to justice; who prefers a negative peace which is the absence of tension to a positive peace which is the presence of justice; who constantly says: "I agree with you in the goal you seek, but I cannot agree with your methods of direct action"; who paternalistically believes he can set the timetable for another man's freedom; who lives by a mythical concept of time and who constantly advises the Negro to wait for a "more convenient season." Shallow understanding from people of good will is more frustrating than absolute misunderstanding from people of ill will. Lukewarm acceptance is much more bewildering than outright rejection.

I had hoped that the white moderate would understand that law and order exist for the purpose of establishing justice and that when they fail in this purpose they become the dangerously structured dams that block the flow of social progress. I had hoped that the white moderate would understand that the present tension in the South is a necessary phase of the transition from an obnoxious negative peace, in which the Negro passively accepted his unjust plight, to a substantive and positive peace, in which all men will respect the dignity and worth of human personality. Actually, we who engage in nonviolent direct action are not the creators of tension. We merely bring to the surface the hidden tension that is already alive. We bring it out in the open, where it can be seen and dealt with. Like a boil that can never be cured so long as it is covered up but must be opened with all its ugliness to the natural medicines of air and light, injustice must be exposed, with all the tension its exposure creates, to the light of human conscience and the air of national opinion before it can be cured. ...

You speak of our activity in Birmingham as extreme. At first I was rather disappointed that fellow clergymen would see my nonviolent efforts as those of an extremist. I began thinking about the fact that I stand in the middle of two opposing forces in the Negro community. One is a force of complacency, made up in part of Negroes who, as a result of long years of oppression, are so drained of self respect and a sense of "somebodiness" that they have adjusted to segregation; and in part of a few middle-class Negroes who, because of a degree of academic and economic security and because in some ways they profit by segregation, have become insensitive to the problems of the masses. The other force is one of bitterness and hatred, and it comes perilously close to advocating violence. It is expressed in the various black nationalist groups that are springing up across the nation, the largest and best known being Elijah Muhammad's Muslim movement. Nourished by the Negro's frustration over the continued existence of racial discrimination, this movement is made up of people who have lost faith in America, who have absolutely repudiated Christianity, and who have concluded that the white man is an incorrigible "devil."

I have tried to stand between these two forces, saying that we need emulate neither the "do nothingism" of the complacent nor the hatred and despair of the black nationalist. For there is the more excellent way of love and nonviolent protest. I am grateful to God that, through the influence of the Negro church, the way of nonviolence became an integral part of our struggle. If this philosophy had not emerged, by now many streets of the South would, I am convinced, be flowing with blood. And I am further convinced that if our white brothers dismiss as "rabble rousers" and "outside agitators" those of us who employ nonviolent direct action, and if they refuse to support our nonviolent efforts, millions of Negroes will, out of frustration and despair, seek solace and security in black nationalist ideologies--a development that would inevitably lead to a frightening racial nightmare.

I fear that if the bad cops are not brought to justice, and that the overwhelming advantages to those connected to power continue, then some people will feel they have no choice but to be destructive as opposed to work toward the hope of improving the situation through legal means. This happened in New York City today, where a homicidal maniac used the lack of prosecution in the death of unarmed Eric Garner as a reason to go over the edge, and he executed two innocent police officers in their squad cars today.

The lack of trust in our legal system and our law enforcement officers is a problem for ALL OF US, and it endangers the many good cops that work within their community and do the right thing in their very tough circumstances. Protecting the bad guys (be they in law enforcement, on Wall Street, or in our politics) is leading to a situation that is intolerable for many of us, and not reversing this trend will lead to some people to decide to do bad things that go well beyond a peaceful protest. I hope that we can de-escalate this tinderbox of anger and mistrust from igniting into something worse, but I fear too many in power and too many in our media benefit from that division for them to do the right thing, and too many white moderates that are willing to condone any response from those in power (no matter how destructive or regressive) because they don't want to face the serious issues that we must confront and try to solve.

No, the Wisconsin deficit isn't shrinking

We got another look at the State of Wisconsin's fiscal picture in the last couple of days, but I think many are confused over the different numbers being thrown around.

When you look at the Wisconsin Legislative Fiscal Bureau’s cost-to-continue estimates, which were released on Thursday, they are based on no new laws or programs being changed, which means this is the basic “keep the lights on” estimate.

Revenues. The attached condition statement incorporates the administration's estimates included in its November 20, 2014, report. This includes both the tax collection and departmental revenue estimates contained in the November 20 report. This [LFB] office will prepare its tax collection estimates for 2014-15 and 2015-17 in January, 2015.

Net Appropriations. Net appropriation amounts incorporate: the 2014-15 adjusted base; 2015-17 standard budget adjustments; commitments enacted in the current legislative session; and amounts to reflect caseload and population changes. Included in the net appropriation figures are compensation reserve and lapse amounts contained in the November 20 report.

Gross Balances. Based upon the assumptions shown above, the condition statement reflects that the gross ending balance for the 2015-17 biennium would be -$824 million.

The breakdown of the figures shows the following:

Cost-to-continue Revenues vs expenses
FY 2015-16 -$619 million
FY 2016-17 -$205 million
TOTAL DEFICITS $824 million

At first glance, this seems to be, if anything, an improvement, as last month the Walker Administration estimated there would be a total deficit of $2.2 billion for the next budget. But there are a whole lot of added details in that DOA document that make the larger figure the one more likely to have to be closed.

For example, I’ll point to two items in the Department of Transportation’s budget request that give examples as to why the real deficit is much bigger. These proposals were not included in the cost-to-continue paper, but will cause cuts in the DOT’s funding if they’re not carried out.

In that budget request, along with the $751 million in proposed added taxes and fees that would go straight into the Transportation Fund, there are two sizable new uses of General Fund money that would go into that fund. First, $225.6 million in General Fund money was projected to be provided as state aids to local communities to help them operate their transit systems, as opposed to the Transportation Fund money that pays for these aids today. So you either add this amount to the cost-to-continue deficit, or you have $225 millon + that is in a new deficit for the Transportation Fund. The same goes for a proposed $225.2 million in extra transfers from the General Fund for the next budget. This higher transfer is not accounted for in the cost-to-continue deficit, so either add that number to the Gen Fund deficit, or find $225 million more to cut at the DOT.

So if we assume that those proposals are adopted, and that this $450.8 million will be used to fund DOT items, we now have $1.27 billion to make up for. Now add in the fact that the LFB’s cost-to-continue estimates include the Department of Revenue’s projections for taxes for the next budget. As I’ve mentioned in the past, these assumptions seem quite rosy, as current-year revenues look to be on pace to fall short of the DOR’s figures for Fiscal Year 2015. (Interestingly, the November revenues numbers were supposed to be out from the DOR yesterday, and they are nowhere to be found. I'm guessing they wouldn't be doing that if the news was good).

The LFB’s cost-to-continue paper assumed that this fiscal year’s $132 million deficit would be made up through extra lapses and other means, but if revenues fall short, it’ll take a whole lot more money to balance the budget over the next 6 months. A revenue shortfall for FY 2014-15 would be a chain-reaction that would drive the deficit for the next budget higher, because the state would start off from a lower base, and need to make up even more revenues to close the gap not only for that year, but in the following budget. For example, let’s assume Wisconsin only grows revenues by 2.5% for the 2014-15 fiscal year, and then the 2015-17 budget has the same percentage increases in revenue growth as projected by the DOR. Here’s what you get.

If 2.5% revenue increase for 2014-15
2014-15 revenue shortfall $346.5 million
2015-16 revenue shortfall $355.8 million
2016-17 revenue shortfall $370.0 million

2014-15 deficit $478.6 million
2015-16 deficit $974.8 million
2016-17 deficit- additional $575 million
TOTAL DEFICITS TO BE MADE UP $2.028 BILLION.

Now add back the $450 million in funding that would have to be found for the Transportation Fund uses of General Fund money that I mentioned earlier, and the deficit will be back near $2.5 billion.

Remember, this is merely to keep things running as is- without adding in the effects of inflation on costs, or any additional state services beyond what we have, or more aids to local government, or using those aids to reduce roperty taxes. This means you shouldn’t count on a repeat of the $406 million in “property tax relief” that Gov Walker keeps touting, because that gimmick has not been paid for, and makes up $812 million of the deficit in the coming budget.

So don’t be fooled by any spin about the budget picture “improving” in Wisconsin after the release of the Cost-to-Continue document. There are already a laundry list of unmet needs that exist due to the first four years of the Age of Fitzwalkerstan, and a whole lot of bills that need to be paid but aren’t accounted for. Combine that with the likelihood that state revenues will come in below the already-slumping estimates, and you have a formula for a budget crisis that goes far beyond when Scott Walker claimed the state was “broke” in 2011. Forget tax cuts, we’ll be lucky to keep the lights on.