September job loss just temporary, but lower trend worth noting

We knew today’s September jobs report would be unusual because it would be affected by the aftermath of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, but it ended up being even weirder than I thought.

The U.S. workforce shrank by 33,000 jobs in September as employment was undercut by hurricanes Harvey and Irma. It was the first contraction in seven years. Economists polled by MarketWatch had predicted a 75,000 increase in nonfarm jobs, but estimates were all over the map because of uncertainty about the effects of the storms. The unemployment rate, which was not impacted by the storms, fell to 4.2% from 4.4%. That's the lowest level since December 2000. Wages increased by 12 cents, or 0.5%, to an average of $26.55 an hour, the government said Friday. Hourly pay increased 2.9% from September 2016 to September 2017, up from 2.7%, but the gain was likely inflated by hurricane effects. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.4 hours. The government raised its estimate of new jobs created in August to 169,000 from 156,000. July's gain was cut to 138,000 from 189,000.

Yeah, that'll change things for a month

And if you dig further into the report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the numbers get even odder. Particularly when you compare the payrolls report for “jobs” and the household survey for “employed/unemployed.”

Payroll jobs, Sept 2017
Total jobs -33,000
Private sector jobs -40,000

Household survey, Sept 2017
Labor Force +575,000
Employed +906,000
Unemployed -331,000

There’s no way both of those numbers can be correct for the month, and this part of the BLS’s “Frequently asked questions” in the report may explain part of the reason why they are so different.

In the establishment survey, the reference period is the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Unusually severe weather is more likely to have an impact on average weekly hours than on employment. Average weekly hours are estimated for paid time during the pay period, including pay for holidays, sick leave, or other time off. The impact of severe weather on hours estimates typically, but not always, results in a reduction in average weekly hours. For example, some employees may be off work for part of the pay period and not receive pay for the time missed, while some workers, such as those dealing with cleanup or repair, may work extra hours.

Typically, it is not possible to precisely quantify the effect of extreme weather on payroll employment estimates. In order for severe weather conditions to reduce employment estimates, employees have to be off work without pay for the entire pay period. Employees who receive pay for any part of the pay period, even 1 hour, are counted in the payroll employment figures….

In the household survey, the reference period is generally the calendar week that includes the 12th of the month. Persons who miss the entire week's work for weather-related events are counted as employed whether or not they are paid for the time off. The household survey collects data on the number of persons who had a job but were not at work due to bad weather. It also provides a measure of the number of persons who usually work full time but had reduced hours due to bad weather.

In other words, employers might have said that no one was working, but someone surveyed in the household report might say that the weather caused him or her not to work, so it would be “0 jobs” but “employed”.

The most obvious “storm effect” on the jobs side seems to have come in Food services and drinking places (aka- bars and restuarants), where 104,700 jobs were lost in September. Take that out of the report, and we gained 72,000 jobs in the month, which seems closer to what we’d expect. This also can help explain the surprise increase in average hourly wages of 12 cents an hour, because the losses were so heavily concentrated in that low-wage sector of the economy, and therefore the average went up.

We also could have seen storm effects with the loss of 6,900 jobs in grocery/liquor stores, and in the GAIN of 5,300 jobs in “Building material and garden supply stores” (those businesses would need to staff up so people could get generators and repair their damage). A couple of other gainers that seem to be storm-related include “insurance carriers” to handle the additional claims (+10,900), and transit/ground passenger transportation for evacuations and relocations (+9,400).

Because of the statistical oddities related to the hurricanes, I can’t really make much of a judgment about where this reports portends for the future. The only thing worth noting if you’re looking for trends is that combined downward revision for July and August, which means that for the 6 months before this “loss” in September we were down to gains of 153,000 a month, and the 12-month average gain was 171,583. That’s the slowest 6-month rate in 5 years, and the worst 12-month rate in 6 years.

Combine that with the low unemployment rate (which was already 4.4% before the “drop” in September), and that indicates an economy that may be maxed out 8 years into the Obama Recovery. Being in a spot of full recovery is a good thing, but unless we get legitimate wage gains that hit people who actually work for a living instead of being funneled up to shareholders and oligarchs, things are not going to get any better than we see today.

And as we saw at the start of 2001 (a good comparison to today), there is the potential for that max-out to become a decline if something more than a regional tropical cyclone starts to mess up the economy. We’re not there yet, but don’t fall into a false sense of security.

More lottery sales = a choice between lower property taxes or less state spendng

Recently the Wisconsin Department of Revenue put in their annual request to set the Lottery tax credit that goes to homeowners, and it featured a couple of surprising figures.

Turns out the Wisconsin Lottery ended up beating the prior (lower) estimates, with instant scratch games ending up $2 million above the predicted amounts for Fiscal Year 2017, and lotto games sold an additional $3.4 million. This, combined with a minor decrease in expenses, means that the projected credit for 2017-18 will be $7.5 million above what was projected in the just-signed state budget.

That may mean your property taxes get a few dollars bumped off of them this winter, but I have a better suggestion for what to do with this extra money.


More than we thought

As part of the GOP’s desperate desire to claim “lower property taxes” ahead of the 2018 elections, they added TAX DOLLARS to pay off retailers (see item number 5 of this rundown from the Legislative Fiscal Bureau), instead of having the Lottery be entirely self-sufficient.

By an interesting coincidence, $8 million of those tax dollars are to be spent in this fiscal year. My suggestion is simple- why not go back to using zero tax dollars, at least for Fiscal Year 2018, and keeping the lottery credit at basically the same level as we were already counting on?

Oh, but then the GOP might not be able to try to take credit for the additional $6.50 you'll "save" on your property taxes in 2 months. Sure, you’ll be paying higher taxes in other areas and/or have fewer services, and it'll get worse next July 1 when that number jumps to $40 million for Fiscal Year 2019. But hey, the GOPs got their talking point to trick a few of the rubes!

If Dems on the Joint Finance Committee wanted to bring this to the public’s attention, they’d object to this request and force the JFC to meet to discuss the Lottery Credit. And if they were really cool, they'd combine that compliant with the inevitably lousy results that will come out of the information that will be released with next week’s audit of the deficit-ridden Veterans Trust Fund (HINT!).

But I figure this shell game will eventually slip by, and $8 million of Wisconsinites’ tax dollars will be funneled into the lottery, despite the fact that better-than-expected sales in 2017 mean that there is no need to spend that money. These are conscious choices by our “representatives”, and voters should question why they’re being made.

So what would be a fairer Wisconsin Assembly map?

This is a bit of a rehash of something I cooked up a couple of months ago, but with today's arguments before SCOTUS about the Wisconsin GOP's redistricting of the State Assembly, I figured I'd take a look at what a fairer map of the 99 districts might look like.

First, let's review what the gerrymandered districts look like today.



Particularly note those Milwaukee-area districts, where the purple-to-blue western and northern parts of the county are overridden by the heavy GOP vote in Ozaukee and Waukesha Counties.

Now let's compare with what I came up with. I went to the outstanding Dave's Redistricting app, and drew up the 99 districts with relatively simple criteria. I tried to keep counties and cities together if possible, but also tried to keep geographically connected areas together if there were wacky city boundaries, such as we see in Madison and Milwaukee.

Other than making sure some majority-minority districts were in place in Milwaukee (really the only place where that applies happen in the state, given that each district is at/near 57,444 people), and that both Hispanic and African-American constituencies had majority districts, I tried to ignore demographic or voting statistics.

The end result was that Republicans have a definite majority of districts, using Dave's Redistricting information from the 2010 GOP wave year, but a majority of districts were also carried by Barack Obama in 2008. So that seems flexible.

It's easier to see what I did by splitting up the state into various regions. I'll go into southern Wisconsin first, so here's that.



Among the major differences outside of the SE Wisconsin and the Madison area is that I gave Sheboygan its own Assembly district (it's currently cut in two by the GOP gerrymander), I created a Columbus/Beaver Dam district which leans Republican, but doesn't dilute E. Dane County like the gerrymander does. I gave the bluer cities of Portage and Baraboo their own districts and connected them to the nearby rural areas, and those districts end up around 50-50, instead of having them as a blue vote sink in the same district.

I also blew up a goofy gerrymander in western Wisconsin (Assembly District 70) and kept all of Monroe County together. I also kept a Beloit-based district in Rock County instead of dragging it into Dane County, and created a stateline district west of that.

In the Milwaukee area, I tried to have districts end at or near the Milwaukee County line to break up the GOP gerrymanders that dilute suburbs like Wauwatosa, Brown Deer, and West Allis. I also took care to have 4 majority African-American districts (a 5th is majority-minority with African-Americans having a plurality of the population) along with 2 majority Hispanic districts in the city.



In Waukesha County, I tried to stick with geography, creating a Brookfield/Elm Grove district, a Waukesha district, a Menomonee Falls/Germantown district, and a Sussex/Pewaukee/Hartland district.

In the Madison area, I stuck with geography, even if it meant that it crossed city lines. For example, Middleton and west side Madison share a district, and Verona and SW Madison are in the same district. I also broke Eastern Dane County free of the GOP gerrymander that currently has them being "represented" by Bagger GOPs from Watertown and Oconomowoc.



And in the SE corner of the state, I tried to split up the districts to rural vs. suburban in Kenosha and Racine Counties. This is different from the current gerrymanders, which are intended to segregate the larger city from both the suburbs and the rural areas. This makes for more flippable districts on both sides.



A fun sidelight of this map is that Robbin' Vos stops representing suburban Racine, and his district ends up going north into Milwaukee exurbs like Mukwonago and Big Bend.

Now we move to the Appleton-Green Bay area, and I tried to tighten this up compared to the current gerrymander, and kept to geographic compactness. What I ended up with were a lot of districts that both voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and for Scott Walker in 2010, with many swings of 15-20 points between those elections.



Lastly, we move to Northern Wisconsin. And let's go back to the current gerrymander to help compare.



Now look at my districts of Northern Wisconsin.



You'll see that many of these districts are more compact than the sprawling, uneven ones that are part of the GOP gerrymander. I kept the Wausau-area seat compact and connected to the closest suburbs, and split up most of the rest of Marathon County north-south. I kept Dunn County in Western Wisconsin together instead of combining it with the Twin Cities exurbs, and tried to keep the Northwoods separate from both Wausau and the Green Bay exurbs.

Obviously, your maps can vary, but the point is that it wouldn't take much to turn Wisconsin's Assembly map into a fair one where both parties would have to work to stay in power in many more areas of the state, and where citizens would have a better chance of being listened to.

So if any of you SCOTUS justices or legislators want to rectify this mess, feel free to borrow as much as you want from this post. I promise I won't ask for (many) billing hours. :P

WisGOP can't justify their gerrymander, and they deserve to pay a price

You may heard that Wisconsin is the centerpiece of a huge case involving redistricting that had its hearing at the Supreme Court today. I wanted to focus in on the Wisconsin GOP’s desperation in their attempts to justify their power-grab, as it seems to speak volumes about the weakness of their case, and how this can cost them dearly, even if they “win” the case.

One of the arguments of the Wisconsin Department of “Justice” and other Republicans gave to SCOTUS is that increased bunching of Democrats into urban areas is a main reason behind the efficiency gap, and that there is little point in undoing the maps as a result. Better known as the “big sort” theory, the Wisconsin DOJ pointed to a study by University of Michigan researcher Jowei Chen which indicated that the geographic mix of Democratic vs Republican voters would give an edge to the GOP in the State Assembly even in a 50-50 election year.

Chen responded to the Wisconsin DOJ’s brief by writing an article in Time magazine titled “Wisconsin Is Misusing My Research to Defend Gerrymandering”. Chen points out that the study actually said that WisGOP’s map was so ridiculous and one-sided that the “big sort” theory could NOT explain it away.

…Of the 200 computer-drawn plans, 144 produced a very small efficiency gap (within three percentage points of zero), indicating the plans gave no substantial advantage to either Democrats or Republicans. The remaining 56 simulated plans exhibited an efficiency gap of between -5.8% and 3%; a negative efficiency gap indicates bias in favor of Republicans. This shows that Wisconsin’s natural political geography skews not all that much overall, but very modestly in favor of Republicans. This natural skew is modest enough that most computer-simulated plans produce nearly zero bias in Wisconsin.

These levels of natural bias completely pale in comparison to the much more extreme partisan bias in the districting plan the legislature approved and is presently using. The actual map has an efficiency gap of -15.1%, meaning a Republican bias several times that of most simulated plans and over twice as large as even the most Republican-favoring map among the 200 simulations. Given these results, it’s statistically extremely unlikely that a neutral districting process, following traditional districting criteria, could have produced a plan exhibiting as much electoral bias as the Wisconsin Legislature’s plan.

Colleagues of mine have conducted a different simulation that looked at more than a trillion election outcomes. They found that there was less than a 1 in 1,000 chance that a random map could be as biased as the Wisconsin Assembly map. From these simulations, it is obvious: Wisconsin’s legislature could easily have produced a map with little to no partisan bias.

While there is some small natural advantage to Republicans based on residential patterns of Republicans and Democrats, natural geography can explain only a small portion of why the Wisconsin Assembly maps have such an overwhelming partisan bias. And the legislature’s efforts to create 10 to 15 additional Republican districts came at the expense of traditional districting principles, splitting apart far more counties and municipalities than were necessary and producing unnaturally-shaped districts.

It’s not surprising that a Wisconsin DOJ run by GOP partisan hack Brad Schimel would say anything to allow the Republicans to hold onto their ill-gotten gains (a defense that cost Wisconsin taxpayers $256,000 through the end of July). But the underlying point in Chen’s article reiterates one of my sayings: “If you’re lying, you’re losing.” And boy are the WisGOP hacks lying to try to make their gerrymanders seem OK.

The dishonesty may not matter with this Supreme Court. I’ve grown quite cynical of the right-wingers on that bench since their absurd rulings of “superPACs are independent” in Citizens United and “protections against racist voter suppression aren’t needed any more” in Shelby County v. Holder. The reality of WisGOP rigging Wisconsin’s maps so badly that they can ignore the will of the typical Wisconsin voter may not make a big difference to this crew.

But regardless of legality, everyday people don’t like gerrymandering. A national poll released last month from DC’s Celinda Lake’s polling firm said that 71% of 1,000 voters agreed that the Supreme Court should put together new, specific rules on redistricting, with sizable majorities across all parties. And they especially hated the concept that one party would be favored in redistricting. It;s noteworthy that Republican politicians such as Ohio Governor John Kasich and former GOP presidential candidate Bob Dole filed briefs asking for Wisconsin's gerrymander to go. And this former governor also joined in.

“We must terminate gerrymandering.” #FairMaps pic.twitter.com/0raHwxhm5D

— Rock the Vote (@RockTheVote) October 3, 2017

Which means that no matter what the outcome of Gill v. Whitford is, if I ran the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, I would be saying the words “gerrymander” in every public speech. Any Wisconsin Dem with guts should make the Republicans defend their act (whether found to be unconstitutional or not) and promise to outlaw gerrymandering if they are put into power (and unlike 2009, DO IT if they get chance). Such a strategy is a political winner because the average person knows that what the GOP to rig the maps has done is bullshit, and in their gut they know gerrymandering is a reason why politicians don’t seem to listen to or care about them.

And I maintain enough faith that enough Wisconsinites aren’t gutless Pom-Pom wavers and ultimately want good, responsive government regardless of party. Dumping gerrymandering would be a great start toward regaining that good government, either through SCOTUS action, or through removing all Republicans in 2018 so they can’t do it again.

Whether it's Vegas or Bama or Wisconsin, gutless politics has consequences

NOTE FROM JAKE- Tom Petty's heart attack and some reflection has led me to water this down a bit. I hope the point still gets across.

The recent victory in the GOP primary by American Taliban member Roy Moore led Esquire political columnist Charlie Pierce to write an outstanding article calling out the failure of voters and the media for allowing such a wackjob to be in position for taking a spot in the US Senate.

Pierce’s column is fittingly titled “I’m Out of Empathy. I’m Out of Pity. I’m Out of Patience.”

Any report about Roy Moore that doesn’t specifically refer to him as a right-wing extremist is not worth your time. No more “firebrand.” No more impotent yap about his “controversial views.” Roy Moore is an extremist or the word no longer has meaning. If, as appears likely, he gets elected to the Senate from Alabama, then a majority of Alabama voters are extremists, too. If he gets elected, then the Republican Party ever more should be referred to as an extremist party. That, of course, is if we’re being honest about what’s really going on in this country in 2017.

And, no, when it comes to the people who voted for Moore, I don’t have to “respect their beliefs.” I don’t have to “understand where they’re coming from.” I don’t have to “see it from their side.” These people are preparing to make a lawless theocratic lunatic one of 100 United States Senators, and that means these people are about to inflict him and his medievalism on me, too. If you think that Roy Moore belongs in the Senate, then you are a half-bright goober whose understanding of American government and basic civics probably stops at the left side of your AM radio dial. You have no concept of the national interest and very little concept of your own, unless, as I suspect, you’ve made your own fears, and hating people and hawking loogies in all directions, the sum total of your involvement in self-government. You are killing democracy and you don’t know it or care. If you had any real Christian charity in your hearts, you’d keep Roy Moore in the locked ward of your local politics and not loose him on a nation that deserves so much better than him.

Why do I not have to “respect their beliefs,” besides the fact that most of those beliefs belong in a cage? I don’t have to “respect their beliefs” because the U.S. Senate to which they are preparing to send him is in the process of screwing them with their pants on and they could care less….

I’m out of empathy for this stuff. I’m out of pity. I’m out of patience. And, not for nothing, but Moore’s opponent is a guy named Douglas Jones. In 2001, Jones convicted two men for the bombing of the 16th Street Baptist Church in Birmingham in 1963, one of the iconic white supremacist terrorist acts of that period. One of those bastards already died in prison and the other keeps getting denied parole. If you’d rather be represented in the Senate by a lawless theocratic lunatic, rather than a guy that finally got justice for four murdered little girls, well, you deserve anything that goddamn happens to you.

Very statesman-like

But dimwits in Alabama are only the latest group to earn this derision. One of the reasons for my anger at last night’s record mass shooting in Las Vegas (in addition to my affinity for Vegas) is that it is a predictable outcome of the National Rifle Association’s outsized influence in our politics in a majority of states and the US Congress.


In the NRA's America, this will happen.

The NRA has bought GOP elected officials, and allowed increasingly powerful guns and ammunition to proliferate without regard to the number of people killed or the increase of fear to our society (disgustingly, they thrive on that). But the real infuriating part of that reality is that NRA’s control wouldn’t be possible if it wasn’t for scared, gutless fools voting GOP because of “gun rights”.
Hey rubes, the ability to legally own a FUCKING MACHINE GUN ON THE 32ND FLOOR OF MANDALAY BAY has nothing to do with your ability to own a rifle to shoot deer in the woods. And amazingly, it is legal to carry a machine gun into the Manadalay Bay hotel.

Nevada law does not require firearms owners to have licenses, register their weapons, or limits the number of firearms an individual posses. Automatic assault weapons and machine guns are also legal in the state as long as they are registered and are possessed in adherence to federal law, according to the National Rifle Association.

Nevada does not prohibit the transfer or possession of assault weapons, 50 caliber rifles or large capacity ammunition magazines. Local law enforcement issues concealed handgun licenses. Open carry is legal without a permit.

Let me also state that walking around strapped with an AK-47 has nothing to do with having a pistol in your house if you are a law-abiding, sane person. If you can’t understand that difference, or if you think “a well-regulated militia” allows you act like an arrogant, armed jackass no matter how it affects anyone else, go fuck yourself.

My same request applies to the people that are hiding behind “the flag” and “the troops” when they see NFL players of color protest 2nd-class treatment of their fellow Americans. And our Governor disgustingly pandered to this mentality yesterday.

Find a different way to protest. Stand for the National Anthem & 🇺🇸. We're land of free because of the brave. Thank you military & veterans!

— Scott Walker (@ScottWalker) October 1, 2017

The race-baiting sentiment is bad enough, but that a-hole is NOT the person to be playing the "thank you veterans" card.

You also raided tens of millions of dollars for Veterans' Homes to hide your budget holes https://t.co/QhJfZheshs #resist #wiunion #wiright

— JakeEdwards (@JakeMadtown) October 1, 2017

For any of you who might think Walker had a point with his tweet- do you not recognizes that this is not about the anthem or the flag, but is about deficiencies in this country that need to be brought to the average person’s attention? No one is accusing you of being racist or an oppressor because you have white privilege, and if you think it does, then that speaks a lot about YOU, and not the people kneeling or raising their fists.

For you to hide behind the flag and the troops to ignore these legitimate issues, and to support the GOP out of symbolic bullcrap is what allows these political atrocities to continue, and continues this country’s downward spiral. So here’s my memo to low-info, sheltered white America. Do you duty as a citizen, LISTEN, and LEARN, give a damn about OUTCOMES and not symbols, and try to make this a better society instead of caring about your own precious feelings. Take some responsibility for your vote, act like decent adults, demand that politicians do the same, and recognize that the world does not end at the tip of your nose.

You have allowed yourself to be exploited by selfish interests that do not give a damn about the future of this country, or about your well-being. You can stop this self-defeating cycle the following way- by learning from events and history, and dealing with reality to improve things for the future, instead of clinging to how you wish things would be. Your previous bad choices in the voting booth are hurting all of us in this country, and our democracy can’t continue to go on if you continue to be this self-centered and idiotic every other November.

Like Charlie Pierce, I am done with this situation. What’s most infuriating is that there’s only so much I can do about it, because it seems the only way we as a state and a society can improve is if some people learn a lesson and/or feel consequence from the mess that they allowed to have happen. You in the low-info, single-issue voter world are down to your last chance, and your Bubble needs to be broken.

I'd prefer it if you put on the Big Boy and Big Girl pants, and did it yourself.

A few reflections on Tom Petty's brilliant simplicity

I had one topic all ready to go, but then this came out in the afternoon, and it's hitting me right now.

Tom Petty was put on life support Monday (Oct. 2) after suffering cardiac arrest, and conflicting reports now say that he has died at the age of 66. CBS News' breaking news tweet citing LAPD has since been deleted. The LAPD later tweeted out an apology: "The LAPD has no information about the passing of singer Tom Petty. Initial information was inadvertantly [sic] provided to some media sources. However, the LAPD has no investigative role in this matter. We apologize for any inconvenience in this reporting."

Earlier in the day, Petty was found in his Malibu home in full cardiac arrest, not breathing. Authorities told The Hollywood Reporter they did respond to a Malibu home around 10:52 a.m. for a man who suffered a heart attack, but they could not confirm it was Petty. Emergency responders were able to get a pulse back, but the man is in critical condition. He was then rushed to the hospital.

Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers just wrapped their 40th anniversary tour at the Hollywood Bowl last week.

My wife and I saw Petty on this tour at Summerfest 3 months ago, and in addition to the great performance, it was very cool to see Petty act as a bandleader on the stage with the Heartbreakers and work out some new arrangements of the old hits. And now he is likely gone? It's hard to take.

Wisconsin native Steven Hyden retweeted this article he wrote on Petty for the now-defunct Grantland site in 2014. It goes through Petty's career output, putting extra focus on the two peaks in his career (late '70s to early '80s and then late '80s to mid-'90s), along with other down/odd times. These paragraphs hit home the most for me.

Full Moon Fever is my favorite Petty record — this is about as far from #tompettyhottakes as you can get, but some opinions are unoriginal for a good reason. Full Moon Fever is the one with “Free Fallin’” and “I Won’t Back Down” and “Runnin’ Down a Dream” and nine other songs that weren’t hits but seem like it. Every other Petty album has at least some filler, but Full Moon Fever has zero percent body fat. (I will not entertain any argument that says “A Mind With a Heart of Its Own” is filler.)

One of the more amazing things about Full Moon Fever is how well it works on a completely superficial level — the songs are instantly likable, they are produced in such a way as to maximize their immediacy, and Petty sings and plays them in an agreeably laid-back way. Full Moon Fever might be the least challenging Great Album in rock history. (The only person who hates Full Moon Fever is original Heartbreakers drummer Stan Lynch, and that’s because he wasn’t asked to play on it.) Only recently have I noticed that the ineffable sorrow at the heart of Petty’s persona exists even on an ostensibly happy record like Fever. “Gonna leave this world for a while,” Petty sings at the end of “Free Fallin,’” a sneaky-sad number about pining after the girl who got away (and, more broadly, the emptiness of nostalgia). Right away, Petty announces that he’s checking out; you can have his songs, conveniently delivered via that inimitable cotton-mouthed drawl, but his heart and mind are already making their getaway on a solitary trip down Ventura Boulevard.

I’m not saying Petty’s music is itself superficial or devoid of emotion, just that tapping into Petty’s emotional core isn’t essential to enjoying Full Moon Fever. For most people this record is merely a tuneful amalgam of easy chords and easier smiles. Then 25 years pass, and Full Moon Fever is woven into the fabric of your life, and “Free Fallin’” somehow turns into a song about you. Petty has a lot of songs like that. He works the long game.

Rick Rubin was one of those people who got into Petty because of Fever. It made him want to produce 1994’s Wildflowers, my second-favorite Petty record. This one has “You Don’t Know How It Feels” and “You Wreck Me” and “Time to Move On,” which is the first song I think of when I try to explain to non-fans Petty’s ability to write really simple songs that seem OK the first time you hear them and incredible after the 100th time.

That last part about Petty's simplicity is the best description of Petty's genius that I've heard, and you really notice it when he plays on stage. There aren't many lyrics or instruments in this tune, but the few elements that exist are perfect.

But Petty could also open it up and still rock it. So I'll end this with three of my personal favorites. The first is a relatively easy one from that first peak album, Damn the Torpedoes, which has all members of the Heartbreakers getting a chance to show what they are made of. It's got the trademark short verses, and it still kicks the hell out 99% of what you'll hear today.

The next one is the ultimate "fuck you" breakup song, which Hyden describes as "about how young men preoccupied with demonstrating masculinity are transparently weak," and it's probably why my sexually frustrated self loved this song even more as I got into my teens.

And lastly, I'll end with another Wildflowers song. Also brilliant in its simplicity, with a serious edge hiding underneath. And how many other artists could have the self-deprecating half-verse of "Think of me what you will, I got a little space to fill"?

I hope that there's a miracle in that LA hospital, but I'm not getting my hopes up. It infuriates me that so much brilliance has been taken from us in the last 2 years- Bowie, Prince, Cornell, and now likely Petty. Even throw in ones like Glenn Campbell and Glenn Frey and Lemmy. Meanwhile, 71-year-old Donny Two Scoops is still standing and wrecking this country? It's just not right.

Forbes writer- GOP has already screwed up "tax reform" in Congress

Wanted to go a bit further on the US ""tax reform" package that will be sure to be an item of great discussion in the coming months. I encourage you to take a look at this article from Forbes' magazine contributor and Georgetown professor Stan Collender, who is a must-read on subjects of Federal taxes and budget (his Twitter Feed of TheBudgetGuy is also a good follow)

As Collender notes, there is no real economic reason for a taxes to be cut, since the Obama Recovery of the last 8 years has left the country with steady growth and near-full employment.

One of the key reasons is that no one has yet made a convincing case that this tax cut is needed to help the economy. With unemployment already low and GDP growth now approaching 3 percent, the kind of demand for a federal government-provided stimulus that would exist if there were a downturn or recession just doesn't exist. (Jake's note- I'd disagree on the growth part. I think we're still in the same 2% growth we've been in for the last few years. But we're also not in any kind of major slowdown...yet)

This lack of an economic imperative is extremely important for how the proposed tax cut will be treated politically. Trump and his allies on Capital Hill seem to be assuming that skeptical Republicans and at least some Democrats will agree to a bill that hurts voters in their district or state because he says a tax cut is needed to goose the economy. With that pretext removed, the parochial reelection concerns of each representative and senator rather than an amorphous appeal to "the economy" will be the primary consideration and even Republican support cannot be taken for granted.

In fact, I'd go the other direction and argue that a tax cut so heavily slanted to the rich and to corporations will make the biggest problem in our economy - low wages by everyday workers - even worse. As we've seen over the last 40 years, lower taxes on the rich and corporate encourage even more profit-hoarding and gambling on Wall Street, at least until the Federal Reserve has to raise interest rates to stop the cocaine party and causes asset bubbles to pop. I can't think that those blue-collars who voted for Trump to "drain the swamp" and see their dead-end lives improve are going to like seeing the nation's crippling inequality get even worse.

In addition, with a budget deficit likely to end up around $700 billion for the 2017 Fiscal Year, a tax cut along with the added costs of rebuilding from storms and other needs is going to turn that figure even higher. If the GOPs who cried crocodile tears about "$20 trillion debt" are legitimately concerned about owing even more, it's going to be very hard to get them to go along with such a tax cut without major decreases in spending- spending cut proposals that were a big reason behind the rejection of the GOP's prior attempts to get rid of Obamacare.

So what are the Trumps and the Ryans trying to say in order for this regressive pile to pass? They bring back the same voodoo BS that hasn't been true for my entire 43-year-old lifetime, where somehow there will be an economic boom which doesn't cause the deficit to blow wide open. Collender doesn't think this will fly.

This claim of rapid and steep GDP growth is also critical for the White House's insistence that, in the face of all credible evidence to the contrary, its tax cut will not increase the budget deficit or national debt. But by the end of last week, others with far more veracity on the federal budget than the Trump administration were reporting that the tax cut would spike the deficit and debt by between $2.2 trillion and $2.4 trillion over the next 10 years. Even the budget resolution produced last week by the GOP-controlled Senate Budget Committee to accelerate the debate on the Trump tax cut assumed it would increase the deficit by $1.5 trillion.

A deficit and debt increase of this magnitude proposed by Democrats would have immediately sent congressional Republicans into a tweet storm frenzy and been the prime topic on Fox News this weekend. But because it came from Trump, the impact of the deficit/debt increase will be far more subtle; a few GOP representatives and senators who are opposed to the tax cut for other reasons will use it to justify their opposition.

That will be a big problem for the Republican House and Senate leadership. While they say they expect that some Democrats will support the tax cut, the decision to exclude them from the planning process -- the Big Six consisted of four congressional Republicans and two members of the Trump administration -- means that it is anything but bipartisan. Because of that, and given the lack of any economic imperative and the substantive problems with the proposed tax cut (especially that it would harm taxpayers in blue states), House and Senate Democrats are far less likely to support the plan in its current incarnation than Trump, Ryan and McConnell are hoping.

Funny how the GOP mentality of "we have a slight majority so fuck the rest of you" continues to bite them in the backside when it comes to trying to get anything done other than autocratic power grabs.

And good luck selling this tax package when it will likely raise the taxes on a lot of the middle and upper middle-class homeowners in the burbs due to the end of the SALT (state and local taxes) deduction. These suburba-GOPs have looked the other way at the racism and the regressive fundie BS because they still cling to a mistaken 1980s-era belief that Republicans improve the economy and lower their taxes. If they haven't already jumped off the Trump Train, raising their taxes and stagnating the economy would likely do the trick for enough of them (and fire up casual onlookers who lean Dem).

That would be another reason to expect a flip in the House in 2018 and the loss of a lot of governorships (and 2020 gerrymandering) in purple states like Wisconsin. So please GOPs, use your remaining political capital on this "tax reform" garbage. If this absurd plan somehow becomes law, there won't be enough Koch money in the world to convince the average dope they aren't being screwed and that the benefits of their hard work are being funneled away to idle, rich a-holes.

As for the Dems at the Capitol, their strategy should be simple.

1. The only "tax reform" package that gets any votes is one that forces millionaires to pay the same tax rate into Social Security as the average working stiff. Currently everyone making over $127,200 gets a back-door tax cut from this provision, with the richest Amercians getting the biggest benefit. Not only would "scrapping the cap" shore up Social Security for the next several decades (and possibly allow for it to be expanded to people 55 and over, which would be a major benefit to the economy and peoples' well-being), but it increases tax fairness on the income tax that Americans are most likely to pay.

2. No votes to allow anything to proceed until we see Trump's taxes for the last 10 years. It only seems fair to make sure this guy isn't self-dealing before he gets to sign anything. I'm sure all you "good-government" conservatives would agree.