It's not just the answers in the Marquette Poll, it's also who answers them

Wisconsin's political media will no doubt be transfixed by the toplines of the poll Charles Franklin will do at the Marquette Law School tomorrow. But the bigger factor in whoever "leads" may be the electorate that Franklin constructs for the poll. Chris Hayes' show on MSNBC yesterday had a segment with Obama pollster Cornell Belcher and 538 poll analyst Nate Silver, and both noted that who is voting goes a long way toward deciding who wins elections these days.

With that in mind, let me remind you how Walker "closed the gap" vs Evers in the last Marquette Poll.

Party ID with Leaners – likely voters
September Marquette Poll (Evers +4)
Dem 47.1%
GOP 45.9%
Indy 7.0%

October Marquette Poll (Walker +1)
Dem 44.9% (-2.2%)
GOP 47.6% (+1.7%, GOP +3.9% net change)
Indy/Other 7.5%

A main reason was simply that Charles Franklin put more Republicasn in survey, claiming "Golly gee willikers, that's who was answering the phone."

I noted at the time that the crosstabs of that poll were not telling such good news for Walker. And the best example was that Scotty was doing even worse in,the October poll among self-described "moderates."

Moderates, Marquette Law Poll
September
Evers 53-32

October
Evers 56-30

But there were fewer moderates in October's poll, and well below the typical exit poll total for a November. Let's see if that changes tomorrow.

There were also some interesting moves among the age groups in the last two polls. Younger people slanted more toward Evers, but older people slanted more toward Walker, and since older voters were more of the electorate, it allowed Walker to "gain".

Age, Marquette Law Poll
18-29
October
Evers 52-38

September
Evers 44-38

30-44
October
Evers 47-38

September
Evers 45-42

45-59
October
Walker 58-39

September
Walker 52-41

Again, let's see where that goes, and how much Franklin thinks young voters will be part of the electorate.

And here's one other crosstab I'm going to pay attention to out of that poll and any others that come out soon.

GB/Appleton media market
October
Walker 60-31

September
Evers 47-45

Layer those Marquette poll results on top of this poll that was revealed yesterday.

WI-06 (n=525)

Glenn Grothman (R) 50
Dan Kohl @DanKohlWI (D) 48

Movement: 15 points to D (was Trump+17)

In WI-06, even splits:
- Trump is 48% favorable, 47% unfavorable
- Grothman is 33% favorable, 35% unfavorable
- US Senate race, Gov race, and the this race within 2 points.

— Change Research (@ChangePolls) October 30, 2018

Wisconsin's 6th district includes a sizable amount of the Green Bay/Appleton media market and is a district that Trump won by 17 points in 2016 and Romney won by 7 in 2012 - or about 14-16 points more Republican than the state. If the statewide races are near even there, TURN OUT THE LIGHTS, it's a Dem landslide on the way.

So my advice for tomorrow, if you choose to pay attention to the Marquette Poll at all, is this. Din't fall for the big headlines from the sheep-like media on the Marquette Poll. Dig into the crosstabs and get the real story that Chucky Franklin's bosses at the Bradley Foundation isn't allowed to admit to.