tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post3524508943496611405..comments2024-02-20T19:58:27.733-06:00Comments on Jake's Wisconsin Funhouse: Very odd Wisconsin revenue numbersUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-11091342627673987122013-04-13T09:39:26.821-05:002013-04-13T09:39:26.821-05:00Walker and the GOP LOVE to gamble with other peopl...Walker and the GOP LOVE to gamble with other people's money, seems to me. I have absolutely no faith in revenue estimates emanating from a Walker-administration DOA or DOR.JBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03075256737290432403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-52302161259212259942013-04-12T23:13:32.212-05:002013-04-12T23:13:32.212-05:00Correction to what I wrote before: QCEW reports ca...Correction to what I wrote before: QCEW reports calendar 2012Q2 total wages as having grown by 2.7% year-on-year (I had been looking at private sector only).<br /><br />I just think that a numeric fubar is more likely than an economic one (at least when it comes to calendar 2012Q2) because the growing number from the DoR lines up with QCEW data while the Census report (which brings data from the DoR) does not.<br /><br />Calendar 2012Q3, on the other hand, gives me some pause for thought now that I look at it. DoR reports say that personal income tax revenue was up by 4.9% (http://www.dor.state.wi.us/news/20121019_01.pdf), census.gov also saying it was up by 4.4% (its source being the DoR of course). However - as you are of course well aware - QCEW reported 2012Q3 total wages as being *down* by 1.8%.<br /><br />Both stories could be true I suppose, if for instance 2012Q3 saw an amazing leap in income inequality such that even with less total income, more of it was shifted from the low tax brackets of lower-income folk to the higher tax brackets of higher-income folk. It's also possible that there are significant lurches in non-wage income sufficient to overcome the effect of the drop in total wages.<br /><br />What I'm looking for but haven't found yet is Federal individual income tax revenue by quarter in Wisconsin. That should be able to provide a relatively independent confirmation or denial of the DoR's story.GeoffThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17317722272565026078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-68362902795384163442013-04-12T20:59:59.759-05:002013-04-12T20:59:59.759-05:00Thanks Geoff. So in other words, you think the DOA...Thanks Geoff. So in other words, you think the DOA people gave the wrong numbers to the Census folks. Could well be true, but with these guys, I don't trust anything.<br /><br /> Even so, the Census report indicates we'd still have some of the worst revenue growth in the Midwest, and Walker and WisGOP are doing a big gamble in banking on growth for balancing the 2013-2015 budgetJake formerly of the LPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15660401299391001751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-86723494798130626902013-04-12T13:34:33.858-05:002013-04-12T13:34:33.858-05:00The Census Bureau breaks out tax and fee revenue b...The Census Bureau breaks out tax and fee revenue by quarter at http://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/dbsearch?program=QTAX&startYear=1992&endYear=2013&categories=QTAXCAT3&dataType=T40&geoLevel=WI&notAdjusted=1&submit=GET+DATA<br /><br />It's pretty obvious that 2012Q2 is out of line with prior years while the other quarters of FY2012 are not so much. QCEW job gains in that quarter aren't wildly different to those in 2011 or 2010 and total wages were up 3.9% between 2011Q2 and 2012Q2.<br /><br />So it seems that a bureaucratic boo-boo is the most likely explanation for the drop in the Census-reported FY11 and FY12 income tax figures.<br /><br />That would not account for the discrepancy between Census Bureau and DoR reports of income tax revenue. However, these have a history of discrepancy of this magnitude ($248m in FY09, $297m in FY10 http://www.dor.state.wi.us/news/DORrevenueFY2010.pdf).GeoffThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17317722272565026078noreply@blogger.com