tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post538436447347133133..comments2024-02-20T19:58:27.733-06:00Comments on Jake's Wisconsin Funhouse: March jobs- DWD can't hide the failUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-77501785655206234892013-04-18T19:18:01.644-05:002013-04-18T19:18:01.644-05:00It's not just the FitzWalkerstanis who are los...It's not just the FitzWalkerstanis who are losing when it comes to job creation in Wisconsin - it's all other Wisconsinites as well.<br /><br />I don't usually mind the front-page spin of the DWD releases so much - after all, it's a normal part of selling the state as a place where you might get a job or there might be demand for your business' products. But this month the spinners are clearly just trying too hard and it shows: they should have at least mentioned the impact of the much later winter than last year.<br /><br />One thing that the non-seasonally adjusted page 2 data show you is the year-on-year change: +8,600 in the private sector. The reason that differs from your +14,800 figure is the March 2013 seasonal adjustment was 6,200 greater than March 2012's, a magnitude of change that hasn't stood up historically to later revisions.<br /><br />Alternatively, we have the data to add the March 2012 - September 2012 (not seasonally adjusted) QCEW change to the not-seasonally-adjusted September 2012 - March 2013 CES change, in which case we get +14,166.<br /><br />That can be compared to the +20,479/yr that gave us 44th place for the QCEW September 2011 - September 2012, or the +62,500/yr that were needed from the start of 2011 to reach Walker's promise, or the +110,700/yr that are currently required between now and December 2014 to get there.<br /><br />We're not going to move out of the 40s in the QCEW rankings any time soon. Here's hoping for better numbers this summer.GeoffThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17317722272565026078noreply@blogger.com