tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post5389564928185102088..comments2024-02-20T19:58:27.733-06:00Comments on Jake's Wisconsin Funhouse: A few thoughts on the budget releaseUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-31993087562231305142014-10-17T13:39:23.098-05:002014-10-17T13:39:23.098-05:00Ok, so the oneoff general fund transfer to the tra...Ok, so the oneoff general fund transfer to the transportation fund for FY14+FY15 was meant to be <a href="http://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/2013/related/acts/20/9245" rel="nofollow">$133,293,200</a>, of which as far as I can tell the LFB reckoned on $25,707,000 being in FY14 in addition to the <a href="http://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/statutes/statutes/16/III/5185" rel="nofollow">$35,127,000</a> already specified for a total of <a href="http://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/2013/related/acts/20.pdf" rel="nofollow">$60,877,000</a>, while footnote D <a href="http://www.doa.state.wi.us/Documents/DEBF/Financial%20Reporting/AFR/WI%20AFR%202014%20Appendix.pdf" rel="nofollow">on page 5 of the appendix (page 7 of pdf)</a> indicates the total transfer was $35.1 million.<br /><br />So the general fund balance has been inflated by a little over $25 million by this shenanigans.<br /><br />On the other hand, we should also note that <a href="http://www.doa.state.wi.us/Documents/DEBF/CapitalFinance/pdf_files/2014AFR.pdf" rel="nofollow">page 17 of the AFR (page 19 of the pdf)</a> indicates that $23,704,000 of anticipated Indian Gaming Revenue did not materialize. That might not materialize in FY15 either, or FY14's might materialize in FY15, depending on how many games Walker is willing to play with the Kenosha casino decision.<br /><br />~<br /><br />Also, did you notice that FY15Q1 <a href="http://www.revenue.wi.gov/news/2014/20141014_01.pdf" rel="nofollow">tax collection data</a> is out? I have it on the authority of the Department of Revenue that the impact of the withholding table changes for the 2 1/2 months of the quarter was $123 million, so adjusting for that the total tax revenue growth would be up 2.1% year-on-year.<br /><br />That would suggest that (given the net impact of the withholding table changes is ultimately nigh-identical last FY and this) FY15 is on course to end with about $14,237m of tax revenue, down $207m from the LFB's vanilla take on the impact of the lower FY14 base and down $488m on their May estimate following the GOP's bonanza of giving away money the state didn't have.<br /><br />Given that net appropriations for FY15 are projected to be <a href="http://legis.wisconsin.gov/lfb/publications/Miscellaneous/Documents/2014_05_22%20WI%20Leg%20Structural%20Deficit.pdf" rel="nofollow">$15,843</a> and considering the transportation fund non-transfer and lack of casino revenue a wash, we'd end FY15 some $530m in the hole, thus having to make up $595m before June 30th next year.<br /><br />For the 2015-17 structural deficit calculation from that May LFB memo, the FY15 base revenues would instead be $14,796m and so the structural deficit $1,618m, making the total needed to be made up from somewhere over the next 2 1/2 years some $2.213 billion. The impact of the GOP's profligacy in the January special session for was <a href="http://legis.wisconsin.gov/lfb/publications/Miscellaneous/Documents/2014_01_28%20January%202014%20SS%20Bills.pdf" rel="nofollow">$278m in FY14 and $698m in the fully-impacted FY15</a> and accounting for the one-time nature of the fiscal impact of the withholding table changes, so the total impact of Act 145 through FY17 is about $2,041m. In other words, this fiscal hole is entirely the fault of Governor Walker and his Legislative allies.<br /><br />Plus, as ever, the $1 billion Transportation Fund hole for 2015-17...GeoffThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17317722272565026078noreply@blogger.com