tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post6918773540372007279..comments2024-02-20T19:58:27.733-06:00Comments on Jake's Wisconsin Funhouse: MU Law Poll- tight races, if the young and the moderate don't voteUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-72914634682500813062016-10-15T08:48:16.785-05:002016-10-15T08:48:16.785-05:00And had Thompson up 1 on Baldwin at this point a...And <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_thompson_vs_baldwin-2711.html#polls%22" rel="nofollow"> had Thompson up 1 on Baldwin at this point </a> and also had <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html#polls" rel="nofollow"> Obama +1 over Romney. </a> <br /><br /> Then in MU's last poll in 2012, it shifted to Baldwin +4 and Obama +8- pretty close to the final results. Same thing happened in 2014 with a magic shift towards Walker (although Franklin hedged by it being only Walker +1 with "registered" voters). <br /><br /> This is why I dig into the crosstabs, and why I will not be surprised if/when Clinton and Feingold lead by relatively comfortable margins in the final MU Pol in 2-3 weeks. <br /><br /> Polls are media-driven (especially the MU Poll, which has some partnerships with Milwaukee media that wants the click and ads), and are often used as psy-ops to drive up or down turnout and enthusiasm. KNOW THIS. Jake formerly of the LPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15660401299391001751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-72344833166278001302016-10-15T08:21:30.129-05:002016-10-15T08:21:30.129-05:00MU had Burke and Walker tied at this point. lol.MU had Burke and Walker tied at this point. lol.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-52685108443024884532016-10-13T17:27:47.814-05:002016-10-13T17:27:47.814-05:00Geoff- I didn't know about the "first res...Geoff- I didn't know about the "first response/recontact" thing, and that adds up to me, since old white folks will be more likely to be around and pick up. <br /><br /> I also question the tightness of that likely voter screen, because "yeah, probably" doesn't qualify as a likely voter as it's defined today. But they will be likely to cast to a vote, and I question the demos accordingly. <br /><br /> Yes, statistical flukes happen. But Charles Franklin and Company also get more hits if the race is interesting. And the media companies that prop them up (and the Bradleys....?) get more cash if certain results come in. <br /><br /> I also expect an "interesting" adjusting to the last poll that more accurately reflects the electorate. Jake formerly of the LPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15660401299391001751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-13882216887975946872016-10-12T21:36:44.715-05:002016-10-12T21:36:44.715-05:00MLSP properly recontact phone numbers that didn...MLSP properly recontact phone numbers that didn't answer before; since the field period was Thursday through Sunday, the Thursday interviewees will tend towards those who are in a position to pick up their phones on a Thursday. Naturally that tends towards retirees (who are disproportionately Republican), so it shouldn't be too surprising that the state of the race has a dependence on the day within the fielding period.<br /><br />If you go back to the <a href="https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/MLSP13_Toplines_Likely.pdf" rel="nofollow">early October 2012 poll</a>, the Obama-Biden ticket was winning by 1 point, Baldwin was losing by 1, and the party ID was D+3 (D+1 with leaners). In the end the Obama-Biden ticket won by 7 points, Baldwin by 6, and exit poll party ID was D+5 as you mentioned.<br /><br />Either there was a shift in the last month of the campaign, or Marquette's likely voter screen ("I am certain to vote") doesn't accurately capture all the people who will actually vote in the election: perhaps those generally inclined towards Democratic candidates only become sure they will vote as the election gets very near (in the late October 2012 poll, MLSP had Obama+8, Baldwin+4, and a party ID of D+5 with or without leaners).<br /><br />Anyway, that's just a working hypothesis. And sometimes you just get statistical flukes - if there weren't ever any, something would be wrong.GeoffThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17317722272565026078noreply@blogger.com