tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post8216027990848351297..comments2024-02-20T19:58:27.733-06:00Comments on Jake's Wisconsin Funhouse: Again, DWD tries to take credit for Obama recoveryUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-39021081633375373952015-01-09T23:08:14.013-06:002015-01-09T23:08:14.013-06:00The Obama recovery? WTF?
You mean the Republican R...The Obama recovery? WTF?<br />You mean the Republican Recovery, which started after they took control of Congress in 2010 and ended the failed runaway deficit spending of the Democrats by enacting the Budget Control Act of 2011 and creating the Oil Shale Boom. <br /><br />Obama & the Dems get credit for 3 years of 10% unemployment and sinking Social Security into the red 5 years ahead of schedule by not collecting 1/2 of the Payroll taxes for two years in the single worst economic policy of the 21st century. <br /><br />Obama = failure. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-11725575321381818812013-08-23T14:18:50.842-05:002013-08-23T14:18:50.842-05:00I don't think the divergence between the annua...I don't think the divergence between the annual changes in seasonally unadjusted vs seasonally adjusted numbers is that significant: the 2012 CES numbers have all been benchmarked, but the 2013 ones haven't yet and are subject to a (slightly) different set of <a href="http://www.bls.gov/ces/cestn.htm#section5e" rel="nofollow">seasonal adjustment specs</a>. So that July 2013 figures are adjusted downwards by a different amount than July 2012's is to be expected.GeoffThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17317722272565026078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-48008863703998694352013-08-23T12:17:31.196-05:002013-08-23T12:17:31.196-05:00Another tipoff about the seasonal nature of the jo... Another tipoff about the seasonal nature of the jobs is the fact that the <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/laus.pdf" rel="nofollow"> last state-by-state jobs report </a> shows that Wisconsin has gained 25,800 jobs in 1 year on a "seasonally adjusted" basis, but 41,500 overall. So it tells a large amount of those jobs are in seasonal industries (which is why the number is deflated).<br /><br /> The confirmation for that would be if we see big increases in unemployment claims over the next 2 months. Stay tuned.<br /> Jake formerly of the LPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15660401299391001751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-22603766202009483392013-08-23T01:37:37.526-05:002013-08-23T01:37:37.526-05:00In the last 12 months, CES says that Wisconsin is ...In the last 12 months, CES says that Wisconsin is <a href="http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMS55000000500000001" rel="nofollow">up 28,100 private sector jobs</a>. Given the preliminary QCEW annual figures for March this year of 24,124 and the meh Q2 tax receipts even vs 2012 it's probably not far wrong.<br /><br />CES also says that of those 28,100, fully <a href="http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMS55000007000000001" rel="nofollow">16,000 are in the leisure & hospitality sector</a> above and beyond normal seasonal expectations. It's hard to imagine that many of these are all-year jobs rather than just due to a bigger summer peak than normal.<br /><br />If they really are principally just summer jobs, that bodes ill for the Q3 QCEW report, even compared to the unusually poor 2012Q3. Replacing the really poor 2012Q3 with an average 2013Q3 is key to making the last annual QCEW figures before next year's election (those for March 2014) look respectable (from a certain $2,000 a plate dinner-sponsored angle, that is).GeoffThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17317722272565026078noreply@blogger.com