tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post95451571294798456..comments2024-02-20T19:58:27.733-06:00Comments on Jake's Wisconsin Funhouse: Not saying the Wisconsin budget is blown, but.....Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-73561921840475397702014-08-30T16:16:27.215-05:002014-08-30T16:16:27.215-05:00Apparently we'll find out soon enough- unless ...Apparently we'll find out soon enough- unless we kick em out in 2 months. <br /><br /> http://m.jsonline.com/business/mge-wisconsin-energy-create-joint-venture-will-consider-bidding-for-state-owned-power-plants-b993413-273250191.htmlJake formerly of the LPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15660401299391001751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-32044462209189300862014-08-21T10:55:36.883-05:002014-08-21T10:55:36.883-05:00And what has this fiscal mess done to the state...And what has this fiscal mess done to the state's bond rating, I wonder. Is that why the dorms will not be built at outlying campuses? In addition to being the chair of WEDC, Walker is of course chair of the State Building Commission. I look forward to the day that someone who understands finance is in those positions, and Walker is finally on the outside looking on.JBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03075256737290432403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-74189216181564243972014-08-21T10:51:42.132-05:002014-08-21T10:51:42.132-05:00Thus the sell off of state properties. How much wo...Thus the sell off of state properties. How much would MG&E pay for two newly-renovated power plants on the UW-Madison campus? (The one near the hospital is still under construction.JBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03075256737290432403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-20281537975610919022014-08-21T07:37:16.749-05:002014-08-21T07:37:16.749-05:00Oh, and add more to that structural deficit, as th...Oh, and add more to that structural deficit, as the UW System says <a href="http://hosted2.ap.org/WIEAU/d908e50184c54ebab806c00d0fb25d6c/Article_2014-08-20-WI--UW%20Budget/id-42ec41f198d14495ac786c94af97970a" rel="nofollow"> they need $95 million in order to pay for the initiatives that Walker and business leaders want for the next 2 years. </a> And if you won't raise that money through tuition, it's gotta come from us.Jake formerly of the LPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15660401299391001751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-45916040035865576072014-08-21T06:40:44.808-05:002014-08-21T06:40:44.808-05:00You're misreading "total receipts" f...You're misreading "total receipts" for Gen Fund taxes. If you want to get super nerdy, you can go to the state 'a bond sales documents, and it'll show this. They're related measures, but different.<br /> <br /> As mentioned, this is not a perfect comparison by any means, but it does give an indication what the reports in the next couple of months say. Jake formerly of the LPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15660401299391001751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-8298254568935976422014-08-21T03:46:46.357-05:002014-08-21T03:46:46.357-05:00(cont'd)
So we're looking at FY14 values ...(cont'd)<br /><br />So we're looking at FY14 values that are $200m too low in the revenue area and $15m too high in the appropriations area. So we'll probably lose $250m of FY14's starting balance of $759m when the reports come out in a few weeks and close with a balance of $509m.<br /><br />FY15 anticipated a net loss of $559m, but starting from a revenue base $200m smaller than anticipated and with the other $78m of unanticipated Medicaid expenditures, stands to lose $837m. So we'll probably limp into 2015 before needing a budget repair bill lest the general fund balance drop to $-278m.<br /><br />The structural deficit for 2015-17 was last estimated at $642m, but add to that two years of a revenue base $200m under projections and Medicaid expenses $150m over projections and you get a structural deficit of $1,192m.<br /><br />So before the end of June 2017 we'll need another $278m + $1,192m + <a href="http://jakehasablog.blogspot.com/2014/01/its-1-billion-surplusand-11-billion.html" rel="nofollow">$1,100m</a> (for the Transportation Fund) = $2,570m.<br /><br />Transportation Fund revenue isn't likely to go anywhere but down; GPR, if it reflects FY12 & FY13 growth rates (about 4.5%), could provide about $2,000m of that. But <a href="http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/2014/qgsp0814.htm" rel="nofollow">with the economy chugging in 2013H2</a> (n.b. new BLS prototype statistic), just how likely is that anyway? There's a hole and no realistic prospect of filling it with economic growth.GeoffThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17317722272565026078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3426800777521979578.post-19386565606655078492014-08-21T03:46:26.187-05:002014-08-21T03:46:26.187-05:00Well, the Koo-Koo tax cuts were a part of the 2013...Well, the Koo-Koo tax cuts were a part of the 2013-15 budget from the get-go in 2013, so there's no way that it wouldn't have been accounted for in these estimates. I <i>would</i> have suggested that the spend-the-surplus-we-don't-have-yet Act 145 might be in some way responsible (having retroactive tax credits) because it <a href="http://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/2013/related/acts/145" rel="nofollow">became law on March 25th</a>, 8 days after the first DoA memo you point to. But Act 145 <a href="http://legis.wisconsin.gov/lfb/publications/Miscellaneous/Documents/2014_01_28%20Structural%20Deficit%20Jan%202014%20SS.pdf" rel="nofollow">was only meant to cut revenue by $170m in FY14</a>, and almost all of that through roughly-evenly-distributed-across-April/May/June withholding rate changes.<br /><br />But I don't think this should be read as being too significant: the DoR <a href="http://www.revenue.wi.gov/news/2014/20140523_01.pdf" rel="nofollow">reported that GPR collections in April were $1,201.9m</a>, not the $2,768m reported in the JFC memo. <a href="http://www.doa.state.wi.us/Documents/April%202014.pdf" rel="nofollow">The April monthly statement</a> makes it clear that that the $2,768m figure includes $985.9m of receipts by transfer from other funds. Maybe the rest is a payout from the <a href="http://www.swib.state.wi.us/SIF.aspx" rel="nofollow">State Investment Fund</a>, perhaps?<br /><br />In any case, I think you're at risk here of conflating the ins and outs of the General Fund with revenues and appropriations.<br /><br />What we do know there is that unless May and June were something special in the corporate tax revenue front and/or particularly wealthy people started projecting themselves to have higher incomes than first thought, we're going to come in about $200 million under the revenue projected in the May 22nd LFB memo.<br /><br />As <a href="http://jakehasablog.blogspot.com/2014/07/underfunding-veterans-means-budget.html" rel="nofollow">you've pointed out already</a>, Medicaid GPR expenditures are projected to be <a href="http://legis.wisconsin.gov/lfb/jfc/reports/Documents/2014_06_27_DHS%20overall%20condition%20of%20Medicaid%20Budget.pdf" rel="nofollow">$93 million higher than budgeted</a> by the end of June 2015, from that June 27th DHS memo. That assumed that childless adult enrollment would reach 135,000 by that point, <a href="https://www.forwardhealth.wi.gov/WIPortal/Tab/42/icscontent/Member/caseloads/enrollment/MonthlyEnrollment.pdf.spage" rel="nofollow">but it's already at 119,900 in July 2014</a> and not showing any signs of slowing down yet.<br /><br />Even if the 135,000 ultimate enrollment is accurate, and its growth is uniform from April 1st, 2014 (when childless adults became eligible) through to July 1st, 2015, that represents 15 months of the biennium but it'll represent 24 of the next one. So we're looking at at least $93m x 24 / 15 = $150m of unanticipated costs in 2015-17. "At least" because $93m covers a ramp-up, but 2015-17 should be steady-state at the higher value. If you correct for this, then we're looking at $165m additional GPR expenditures for 2015-17.<br />GeoffThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17317722272565026078noreply@blogger.com