Not out of the Woods

Am I the only one who isn't exactly thrilled to see the panic go away from our current situation. Oh, I believe the crazy freefall has stopped and that we aren't heading for ruin. But I still don't see enough stabilization in the banks, because while they are being propped up for the time being, the lack of borrowing capaibilities and bank balances still seem to be around. And while the drops may be slowing, the rebounds aren't happening, and so we're crawling around on the floor.

Yes, we've gone a in a good way from where we were at the start of this year, but half-measures and flatline numbers won't get people their jobs abck. And we're not even adding the mess that state and local finances will still have after this one-time assistance from the stimulus package. If national health care, entitlement reform, or some other big change in handling future liabilities is not addressed, this will continue to be a big albatross for government and allocation of tax resources. It's worth keeping an eye on.

And I see no reason for any near-term growth in the real world until job losses drop to something less than 300- 400,000 a month, and fewer than 100,000 mew jobless claims being filed a day. That hasn't come close to happening yet. And until it does, don't fall for the irrational exuberance, and keep playing it safe and smart.

At least you got 70-degree weather coming by the end of the week, so I'll be taking the small victories when I can, and taking advantage of that $2 "any beer you want" Happy Hour at Bar Louie.