I just posted this at 538.com (tremendous site) in the wake of the PPP poll that has Ron Johnson within 2 points of Russ Feingold.
"Interesting numbers in that PPP poll in Wisconsin that only has Feingold +2. Then you read closer and see why.
On Ron Johnson: "62% have no opinion of him."
Remember Nate (Silver)'s article a couple of months back that indicated a generic Republican does better than a real one? Yup. Too bad Johnson can't win an election hiding from people and only giving interviews to Milwaukee-area angry-man radio.
And 40% conservatives in the pool compared to 19% liberal? Respondents voted 48-47 for MCCAIN in the last election? In a state that went 56-43 Obama. 6% ages 18-29 but 69% ages 46+? MAJOR FAIL.
Last point, Feingold won his race in 2004 by 300,000 voted more than Kerry. You think those 300,000 are going to vote for a millionaire that looks like Mr. Burns? Yeah, riiiiight.
I stick with my pick of Feingold by 10. But if it wastes GOP money on this race and encourages Dems to come out in the Fall and keeps the Governorship and Legslature in Dem hands, I'll take that meme of "Feingold in trouble" for now."
EDIT- And one last great stat from that poll. Feingold's approval/ disapproval is 32-46 for people 30-45. I'm in the 30-45 age range. Most of my friends are in the 30-45 age range. That polling is a JOKE, as most of them approve of Feingold much more than they approve of Obama. They must have been solely calling land lines in the 262 to get that result.
The media is trying so hard to make these elections seem like they're leaning Republican- lot more ratings in close elections with story lines. It'll be fun seeing them have to change their tune by September and October, very similar to how they tried so badly to make Obama-McCain seem competitive, just so you'd keep watching. Always follow the $$$, folks.