Friday, July 22, 2011

Wisconsin not the only state with odd jobs numbers

As a follow-up to yesterday's analysis of Wisconsin's interesting jobs report, I wanted to look into the BLS' state-by-state report, which came out today. And it turns out that we're not the only one with unusual job numbers.

Page 10 gives the unemployment rates, and Page 12 gives the seasonally-adjusted nonfarm payroll numbers. And it turns out that a number of other states allegedly added more than Wisconsin's "50% of the nation's total" of 9,500 last month. They include:

Texass- 32,000
California- 28,800
Michigan- 18,000
Minnesota- (!) 13,200
Ohio- 10,600
Massachusetts- 10,400

So right there you have 113,000 jobs added. Throw in Wisconsin and it's 122,500. So why was June's jobs report so lousy for the country, at 18,000 net jobs? Last month's losers will give you an idea.

Tennessee- -16,900
Missouri- -15,700
Virginia- -14,600
North Carolina- -9,500
Arizona- -8,200

So that's 64,900 jobs lost in those 5 states alone. I understand that employment growth is different from state to state (heck, check out North Dakota the last 4 years), but those are some huge swings from place to place.

There's also plenty of states that matched Wisconsin's odd combination of "jobs and unemployment both go up" in June, which makes me wonder if there's some kind of sampling issues (intentional or otherwise). In addition to Wisconsin's "+0.3% jobs, +0.2% unemployment" performance, check out:

Minnesota- +0.5% jobs, +0.1% UE
Michigan- +0.5% jobs, +0.2% UE
Ohio- +0.2%Jobs, +0.2% UE
S. Carolina- +0.5% jobs ( if you believe them) , +0.5% UE

And even more interestingly, all of the Midwestern states in the group (including Wisconsin) had their labor force numbers go DOWN in the household survey, and "unemployed" go up. South Carolina was not much different, with "unemployed" going up 11,200 and the labor force only increasing by 2,800 for a net of -8,400. Just like as in Wisconsin, the households and businesses are telling two very different stories. INNNNTERESTING, EH?

Oh, and a follow-up to the surplus-having Mitch Daniels (i.e. the preview of the future Wisconsin under Scott Walker). Indiana has:

1. Lost 12,600 jobs in the last 2 months. All other Midwestern states have done better by at least 10,000.
2. Lost 7,300 jobs in the last 12 months. The next closest Midwestern state (Iowa) is 19,700 better than Indiana, the next closest after that is better than MitchWorld by nearly 30,000.
3. Unemployment is "down" to 8.3% in Indiana, but that's only because appoximately 33,000 dropped out of the work force- or else it would be 9.2%.

Yeah, we don't need that crap here. Be it Mitch Daniels or Tom Crean.

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