Numbers show Walker would lose Pt. 2- the I-94 connection

In the previous post, I pointed out that many of the rural areas that this month's recall elections were fought show that the Republicans have lost much of the support they gained in 2010, and that shift would give the Dems a great chance at winning a recall election if those numbers held. Let's add onto that by looking at the "Big 5" base counties in Wisconsin that make up both the Dem and GOP bases in the Milwaukee and Madison areas.

Craig Gilbert has done an excellent job illustrating how the Pasch-Darling recall race and the Supreme Court race this Spring illustrate that voters in Milwaukee and Dane Counties are in different electoral worlds compared to the ones in Waukesha, Washington, and Ozaukee Counties (or as I referenced earlier Wauzaukington County, an area every bit out of touch with Wisconsin that Madison allegedly is).

Traditionally, these 5 counties make up a large amount of the Wisconsin electorate, from 37.5% in the 2008 presidential election, to over 40% in the Supreme Court race this Spring. And if you view these 5 counties as a block, you can see that the numbers favor Democrats in total, with some shifts, but not as huge a shift as you saw in Central and Western Wisconsin. For these comparisons, I will assume Kloppenburg as the "Dem" in the 2011 S.C. race, and Prosser the "GOP" because, well, they are, and we'll run the same numbers as in the last post, using the 2006 and 2010 guv elections, with the Dem vs. GOP (non-3rd party) vote compared

2006 Gov. - Dem 55.9 - GOP 44.1
2010 Gov. - Dem 52.0 - GOP 48.0 (GOP swing +7.8)
2011 S.C. - Dem 51.8 - GOP 48.2 (GOP swing +0.4)

The last number is interesting, because this 5-county area actually swung slightly to the GOP while the rest of the state was swinging significantly to the Dem side (remember, Walker won by 5.7% while Prosser won by less than 0.5%). Sort of proves how much Walker was lying when he said the Kloppenburg support was from a "few agitators in Madison," doesn't it?

And the Kloppenburg election has another factor that should make the Sykes/Belling/Walker contingent tremble. Milwaukee County had a 10.7% shift TO THE GOP in that race, because Barrett hammered Walker by approximately 62-38 in 2010, while Prosser was with 13 points of Kloppenburg in April. Does anyone in their right mind think Scott Walker would gain votes in Milwaukee County after his policies have helped lead to major layoffs at MPS and probable cutbacks in transit and other social services? The Pasch-Darling race certainly doesn't indicate that, as Gilbert points out that Pasch beat Darling 62-38 in Milwaukee County, and that district left out about 95% of the City of Milwaukee. Bottom line- if Kloppenburg would have won Milwaukee County by the same margin Barrett did, she would have won the election by 19,000 votes- well out of the Kathy Nickolaus range. Uh oh, Scotty.

There's another problem Walker is facing when you look at these big counties for a recall- he's probably maxed himself out in support in Wauzaukington County, as those places have shifted GOP both times, especially between 2006 and 2010, so a shift back toward the 2006 results would make him toast. At the same time, Walker and the GOPs can certainly still lose ground in Dane County. Let's go over the 3 Walker counties and Dane County, and you'll see the changes.

Dem win (loss) 2006 Gov 2010 Gov. 2011 S.C.
Dane +42.7, +37.0 (+ 5.7 GOP), +46.6 (+9.6 Dem)
Waukesha -28.8, -43.5 (+14.7 GOP), -47.6 (+4.2 GOP)
Ozaukee -24.8, -38.4 (+13.6 GOP), -43.0 (+4.6 GOP)
Washington -33.8, -40.8 (+7.0 GOP), -51.2 (+10.4 GOP)

So if the Kloppenburg vote totals hold in Dane County, and Walker loses even half the shift that's gone on from 2006-2011, it's a relatively easy Dem win. And when you realize that Pasch lost to Darling by 38 points vs. Darling in a district that features Ozaukee and Washington Counties, that would be around half of that 5-year shift.

Well, maybe the suburb boys will outvote the Dane and Milwaukee Dems? That's certainly the plan behind Voter ID and similar suppression measures. Unfortunately, that might not work as well as they think. In fact, this is another place where the Dems have room to gain vs. the 2010 election while Scotty and company do not. In the 2011 Supreme Court election, all 4 Milwaukee area counties had fewer votes by around the same rate, but Dane County had very little dropoff at all.

2011 vote dropoff vs. 2010 guv race
Waukesha Co. 33.5%
Ozaukee Co. 32.8%
Milwaukee Co. 32.8%
Washington Co. 31.9%
Dane County 17.2%

There were lots of Madisonians who didn't know all that much about Walker this time last year, and many were indifferent on the gubernatiorial election. They sure weren't that way by April and they sure aren't now, not after Walker has constantly demonized the city and the people who work there, and cut their wages for no reason other than posing and greed. Then you combine it with a UW school-year election? You think there'd be high turnout in Madison in 2012? And if it's a heated, high-turnout election with presidential-level turnout, it hurts the GOP even more, because Dane and Milwaukee voters were more likely to stay home in 2010 vs. the Wauzaukington County ones.

2008 vote dropoff vs. 2010 guv race
Ozaukee Co. 18.7%
Waukesha Co. 19.2%
Washington Co. 20.7%
Dane County 22.2%
Milwaukee Co. 28.2%

So you have a more fired-up and anti-Walker Dane Co. contingent vs. 2010, a maxed-out contingent in the 262 Circle of Ignorance, and a Milwaukee Co. outcome that will likely yield a lot more Dem votes than the Supreme Court election did. Now the Dems are making noises about delaying any Walker recall to November 2012, and the dropoff in Milwaukee County votes in 2010 illustrates why they're thinking it could work. But I'd argue that the strong intensity and shift in Dane County show the time to strike is AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. By the time Spring 2012 rolls around, people will stop being tired of the recall elections (I did sense some fatigue by August, which I think helped the GOP), and they will then be ready to throw these bums to the street.

Now add these outcomes in 40% of the state to the 14 point swing you saw in votes from areas with recall elections, and it shows the recall is not only viable, but would be a winner. We got a few months to enjoy the Brewer season, but when the snow starts to fly, then it's time to GET TO WORK, and end this disastrous era before it causes even more damage than it has.