I wanted to give the disastrous 2011 revisions its own post and not clutter it with the January 2012 report info as well. So here are my thoughts on that.
Sure enough, the Journal-Sentinel runs with the headline numbers of an increase of 15,700 private sector jobs and the unemployment rate falling to 6.9%, while conveniently ignoring the brutal downward revisions that would have turned January's totals into a job LOSS. But this is not surprising given that they're in bed with Walker and the MMAC, and I think they are starting to recognize the blowback, as Craig Gilbert gave a more evenhanded type of article later today, while still giving the GOP equal time for their one-month uptick.
But let's check out the numbers, as there are definite positives and negatives in them. On the household survey, previous-year revisions show that Wisconsin actually dropped as much as the U.S. unemployment rate did in the last 12 months, from 7.7% to 6.9% (a drop of 0.8%). So at first glance, Walker has broken even, and allowed Wisconsin to keep pace with the Obama Recovery. But the reasons behind the drops are different.
If you look at the U.S. unemployment numbers (a separate survey from the payrolls survey I usually mention) you'll see that that measure shows a jobs increase of more than 2.3 million since January 2011 (1.66%), while Wisconsin's is a paltry 11,700 (0.41%). So how is Wisconsin dropping unemployment by the same rate? Because the survey indicates that 15,000 people have dropped out of the Wisconsin work force. This could be because of the huge increase in retirements for teachers and other public sector employees, who took off to avoid dealing with damage from Walker's policies, as well as people giving up looking for work, or leaving the state entirely.
This becomes even more stark when you separate "out of the work force" for the reasons behind the drop in the unemployment rates for both the U.S. and Wisconsin. How I'm going to do this is to use the January 2011 "labor force" figure, and then compare it to the Jan 2011 and Jan 2012 "employed" figures
Unemployment drops, Jan 2011- Jan 2012
Wisconsin Jan 2011 7.71%, Jan 2012 6.88% (-0.83%). -0.38% due to employment, -0.43% due to out of the work force.
U.S. Jan 2011 9.08%, Jan 2012 8.26% (-0.82%). -1.50% due to employment, +0.68% due to out of the work force.
And there's your difference. While the U.S. labor force has expanded by 1.3 million, limiting the drop in the unemployment rate nationwide, Wisconsin has lost people, and it makes the unemployment rate seem better than it really is. If we had those 15,000 back in the work force, we'd be at 7.3%. If our labor force grew like the rest of America's, we'd be at 8.0%! So why are Reggie Newson and Scott Walker bragging so much about Wisconsin's low unemployment rate? The biggest reason it's grown is because they've driven people away!
Also, I took a look at the non-farm payrolls number in the other survey, and on a seasonally-adjusted basis, it's pretty impressive. 12,500 jobs created overall, and 15,700 in the private sector. Even better, 4,200 of the gains were in Construction and another 3,700 in Manufacturing, in line with the nationwide increase of 21,000 in Construction and 50,000 in Manufacturing.
But that doesn't mean more people were actually working in Wiscosin in January. In fact, the DWD report's NON-seasonal adjustment shows that 62,000 jobs were lost in January, and 46,400 in the private sector. But then how can there be a disaparity with the seasonally-adjusted jobs? Simple, in Janaury you have lots of retail jobs cut people after the Holidays, a new calendar year means changes and cuts in local governments (with their new fiscal year) and cold weather usually means less outdoor work and need for related types of manufacturing. It's the flip side of the Summertime seasonal adjustment, when we get a lot more jobs due to construction and tourism, and we have to adjust it down to give a real idea if we're growing or falling behind.
This definitely held for a number of sectors in Wisconsin in January
1-month seasonally adjusted change vs. non-seasonal change, January 2012
Construction +4,200 seasonal, -8,100 actual
Manufacturing +3,700 seasonal, -1,000 actual
Retail trade +2,200 seasonal, -13,800 actual
Hotel/food serv. +2,400 seasonal, -5,400 actual
Local government +800 seasonal, -6,500 actual
You can see where this makes a big difference. It also explains why there was a massive drop in government jobs in August, as that's when school districts often hire new teachers for the year. Given that many retirements were not replaced, this is where you saw the difference (also explains why August got revised down and Sept. up in those sectors, the non-hirings were moved to August on further review).
So it's really a case of "we didn't lose as many jobs as we usually did" in January as opposed to real job growth caused by hiring. And that explains how January revenues were down nearly 2% vs. last year in a huge job-growth month. The revenues were so low and the job market so bad in previous months that it convinced the LFB to project a $208 million Walker budget shortfall due to the low revenues.
Obviously, the right-wing lie machine won't give you this level of analysis and reality on the January jobs numbers, as they'll stick to the top-line numbers and try to convince you that it's finally starting to turn around for Scott Walker in Wisconsin. It's not, and we won't really know until the Summer to see if we're making any progress in the 53,000-job deficit that Walker has put us in, as the seasonal adjustments and depatures from the work force will stop skewing the numbers above what they should be. And even then, much more of the growth would be due to the Obama recovery (watch for another 200,000 jobs to be announced in tomorrow's Feb. jobs report).
So now you know the real story. Will you use it to counter the cynical bullshit the righties are going to try to pull? You'd better, because the media won't have the brains or the guts to do so.
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