Final "gold standard" jobs checkpoint before election shows Wisconsin still subpar

Today, we got the rest of the information released from the "gold standard" Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). However, the handy QCEW map function hasn’t been updated yet for some reason, so I had to dig into the QCEW data files. to make the comparisons for Wisconsin and other places.

Our 1.12% rate of job growth between March 2017and March 2018 placed Wisconsin 31st in the nation for private sector job growth over this 12-month period, the 27th straight quarter we have been in the bottom half in the country. Aka- every QCEW report since Scott Walker’s first budget was signed into law in June 2011.

While that rate of growth is a little better than the sub-1% depths we were in for much of 2016 and 2017, it's still not back to the higher levels we had in the mid-2010s...or what we had when Scott Walker and WisGOP came to power in early 2011.

That being said, all Midwestern states lagged the US's 1.7% rate of private sector job growth in that time, so Wisconsin ended up in the middle of the pack for our part of the country in this time period.

Private sector job growth Mar 2017-Mar 2018
Mich +1.53%
Ind. +1.35%
Ill. +1.25%
Wis +1.12%
Ohio +1.07%
Minn +0.63%
Iowa +0.56%

By the way, the Minnesota number seems to be a weather-related fluke, since they gained 10,600 raw (non-seasonally-adjusted) jobs in March 2017 but lost nearly 2,000 in March 2018. All other Midwestern states had their typical seasonally-based increase of thousands of jobs for that month, so I'd bet Minnesota goes back above 1% for April and May, like they were in January and February.

Two other bad trends for Wisconsin’s manufacturing continued in this March 2018 report. The first is that Scott Walker’s Department of Workforce Development overstated job growth in manufacturing yet again. Compare the information from Walker’s DWD 4 ½ months ago, and then note the lower growth when the figures are applied to the “gold standard.”

Manufacturing job growth, Mar 2017- Mar 2018
Walker DWD in April +13,200
QCEW in September +7,913

The Walker DWD has overstated manufacturing job growth a lot in recent years. You should probably ask why.



Wisconsin's 12-month job growth rate in manufacturing of 1.72% sounds good, until you realize that the US added manufacturing jobs of 1.85%. And given that Wisconsin is the state with the second-highest proportion of jobs in manufacturing, you’d think they’d be seeing an extra benefit when hiring is going well in manufacturing nationwide.

Also, Wisconsin yet again had the lowest manufacturing wages in the Midwest in March 2018.

Average weekly manufacturing wage, March 2018
Ill. $1,583
Mich $1,414
Ind. $1,347
Minn $1,335
Ohio $1,239
Iowa $1,145
Wis. $1,144

That $1,144 is only a 1.15% increase from March 2017, which is less than half of the 2.4% increase in inflation over the same time period. Is it any wonder why Wisconsin employers keep whining that they can't find workers?

This is the final QCEW report before the November elections, and the Age of Fitzwalkerstan has shown Wisconsin to consistently lag the rest of the nation. What in the world would make you think 4 more years of Scott Walker would break us out of this disappointing mess, especially given that this country is far overdue for a recession?

To go back to an analogy I've used before, you’d never give a coach of the Packers, Badgers or Brewers a 4-year contract extension after 8 years of subpar performance and declining attractiveness (as shown by our declining population growth and in-migration). Why would you want that to continue in the Governor's Office?