Monday, January 27, 2020

Yes gerrymandering is failing Wisconsin, and GOPs' excuses are getting weaker

On Monday, Governor Evers put out an Executive Order to try to go around any gerrymandering after the 2020 elections. And it'll be done by organizing a group of people, mostly in local commmunities, to discuss the map-making process and coming up with their own proposal for legislative and Congressional districts.
The order, which Evers first announced in his State of the State address last week, creates the "People’s Maps Commission" to draw a new set of legislative maps for Wisconsin following the 2020 U.S. Census.

The order mandates no elected officials, public officials, lobbyists or political party officials can be members of the commission. Instead, it will be made up of experts in nonpartisan redistricting, members from "communities of interest" and residents of each of the state’s eight congressional districts.

"People should be able to choose their elected officials, not the other way around," Evers said at a Capitol press conference.

I have no illusions that the product of the "Peoples Maps Commission" will be accepted as-is by a gerrymandered GOP Legislature, if the GOPs stay in power after 2020. But that's part of the bigger picture, as Evers rightfully identified that the ability to entrench a majority in the Legislature has meant that Republicans can ignore policies that are favored by the overwheliming majority of Wisconsinites.
The governor said the Republican-controlled Legislature's choice to not move forward on issues like medical marijuana and expanding background checks on gun sales is proof lawmakers aren't accountable to voters. He pointed to strong public support for those measures, according to statewide polling from Marquette University Law School.

"When 80 percent of our state supports medical marijuana, and 80 percent of our state supports universal background checks, and also (extreme) risk protection orders, (and) 70 percent want Medicaid expansion, and elected officials can ignore those numbers and say, 'Go jump in a lake,' something’s wrong," Evers said.
That last part distills it well. In addition to having a Legislature which doesn’t reflect the wishes of the state as a whole, gerrymandering skews the incentives that legislators have, and the people who they have to care about. The politicians fear being tripped up in a low-turnout primary more than they fear their gerrymandered constituency as a whole, and so they listen to self-interested activists over the everyday person who won’t say or do anything because they’ve got other interests in life.

This incentive system also makes it easier for these “public servants” to be kept in line when Robbin’ Vos and other GOP puppetmasters threaten to send resources away from those legislators (and into possible primary challenges). Which is why so many GOPs blindly sign off on things that they have to know will hurt their communities, because it’s more important to serve the donors and bosses vs the people.

It's really not that hard to draw the maps and have them be sensibly connect with communities of interest. Here's what I did for the 33-member State Senate using 2016 census blocks, courtesy of the Dave's Redistricting app.

Here's what it looks like statewide


Milwaukee area

GB-Appleton-Oshkosh

Dane County

You can also tell Evers has the upper hand here because the “logic” that Republicans give to try to justify the continuance of gerrymandering is increasingly silly. Check out this take from former Assembly GOP and Twitter tough guy Adam Jarchow.


The chart in Jarchow’s tweet illustrates the problem. Before the maps were drawn in 2011, there were fluctuations with each election, and never more than 60 Republicans in the 99-member Assembly. But since the 2011 gerrymander was installed, they’ve never had less than 60 seats, and haven’t been below 63 since 2014. That's despite years like 2012 when Dems Barack Obama and Tammy Baldwin won statewide by in the mid-to-high single digits, and in 2018, when all Dems won every statewide races with margins that ranged between 17,000 and 288,000 votes.

WHICH IS THE WHOLE POINT OF GERRYMANDERING - to make it not matter when the will of the voters changes 5-10%. But that stupid take probably helps explain why Jarchow got drilled 2 years ago in a district that favored Donald Trump by 17 points.

Frankly, if Republicans really believed that they were the choice of most places in Wisconsin, they’d welcome fair maps. Wouldn’t you want to be seen as legitimately earning your power instead of having an increasing number of people see you as illegitimate due to your self-interested gerrymandering? The fact that these big-talking GOPs aren’t saying “BRING IT ON” when it comes to ending gerrymandering is yet another example of a party that has no interest in winning public arguments or acting in the best interests of the state (or has given up trying). Instead, they rely on tactics, RW media propaganda, and lies without regard to consent of the governed.

Which is why it’s a good move for Evers to have this group talk to the public and draw up their own maps in every corner of the state, because it shows the public that another way is possible, if we choose it. And it makes Republicans have to try to justify in public whatever absurd gerrymander they draw up after 2020 (assuming no 58-42 Dem landslide that would sweep them out of power).

The fact that these big-talking GOPs aren’t saying “BRING IT ON” when it comes to ending gerrymandering is yet another example of a party that has no interest in winning public arguments or acting in the best interests of the state (or has given up trying). Instead, they rely on tactics, RW media propaganda, and lies without regard to consent of the governed.

They won’t be able to BS their way out of this one, as this type of election rigging is one of the few issues that shake everyday people out of their typical “default” voting pattern and get revenge at the ballot box. Evers should push the advantage as the 2020 elections approach, and have these hearings as soon as Wisconsin gets the 2020 census figures determined, which I figure will be in late Summer, and keep the issue in people’s minds.

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