Wanted to share a few illuminating maps from Jill Karofsky's surprising blowout win in last night's Supreme Court race, much of which comes from the always-great J. Miles Coleman at the Sabato Center in Virginia.
the Republican WOW counties are almost all in.
— Craig Gilbert (@WisVoter) April 14, 2020
conservative court margins in 2019 and 2020:
Waukesha: from +37 to +22
Ozaukee: from +25 to +12
Washington: from +50 to +36
W-O-W
This is a Likely D* -- maybe even a Safe D* -- margin, and many predicted an incredibly tight race. pic.twitter.com/lz1mfzRzX9
— Jackson Bryman (@kilometerbryman) April 14, 2020
Other than the WOW counties, @PollsAndVotes has talked about the BOW counties (Brown-Outagamie-Winnebago). These counties, running from Oshkosh to Green Bay, have picked the winners of the last 3 court races. Should be a closely-fought region in statewide races. #SCOWIS #wisc pic.twitter.com/hZpEfeyMMd
— J. Miles Coleman (@JMilesColeman) April 14, 2020
Jill Karofsky won by similar margins as Tammy Baldwin and Rebecca Dallet. Here are all three races by county. They each won by doing well in Dane and Milwaukee. They also did really well in southwest Wisconsin, which Hillary Clinton failed to do in 2016. #WISC #ElectionTwitter pic.twitter.com/o2oA3BNLjc
— Niles Edward Francis (@NilesGApol) April 14, 2020
fwiw, if you take out Madison & Milwaukee, Karofsky still wins by over 40,000 votes. #wisc #SCOWIS
— J. Miles Coleman (@JMilesColeman) April 14, 2020
Wisconsin's court races are nominally nonpartisan but last night's result looked a lot like the 2018 Senate race. Karofsky (D-aligned) won by 11% but carried only 3 of 8 districts. Both Karofsky & Baldwin easily won WI-3, while coming close in WI-1 & WI-8. #scowis #wisc #wisen pic.twitter.com/230k2qLXtm
— J. Miles Coleman (@JMilesColeman) April 14, 2020
That last graphic is worth keeping in mind for next month's special election in the 7th Congressional District, given that it will likely have an off-year, reduced turnout vs a typical November. It still would be quite a lift for Dem Patricia Zunker to beat the GOP's Toxic Tom Tiffany, but it doesn't seem as farfetched as it might have this time last week. Especially given how Tiffany has signed off on every heinous idea that Scott Walker, Scott Fitzgerald and Robbin' Vos have come up with over the last decade - tactics that were loudly rejected in the Supreme Court election.
And despite WisGOP's attempts to hold down the vote, turnout was at 1.55 million votes, the second-largest turnout for a Supreme Court election in this state. Obviously this was influenced by the other races on the ballot, including the (muted) Democratic primary for president and mayoral and county-exec races in Milwaukee. And if GOPs now want to move the Supreme Court and School Superintendent races to happen in regular November elections as a result, I'll sign on to that.
But the results yet again show that if Dems are motivated to vote, they win in Wisconsin no matter what Republicans try to do.
Well, they tried to kill us this time and it didn't work. People are going to remember that. It might be the end of the WIGOP death cult.
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