Good economic news for June already feels out of date

It was funny to see the consumer confidence report that came out this week, because this “current data” already feels way out of date.

The index of consumer confidence rose to 98.1 this month from a revised 85.9 in May, the Conference Board said Tuesday. Economists polled by MarketWatch expected a reading of 90.8 in June.

One potentially big caveat: The cutoff date for the survey was June 18, shortly before states such as Texas and Arizona reimposed new restrictions after a fresh outbreak of COVID-19 cases.

Also note that the consumer confidence survey from 2 weeks ago had Americans figuring things would be OK on the economic and COVID fronts in the second half of 2020.

Another gauge that assesses how Americans view the next six months — the so-called future expectations index —climbed to 106 from 97.6, just slightly below where it was before the virus spread.

The increase suggests consumers believe the virus will be less of a problem by the end of the year.

I’d be very interested in seeing what those same people might be saying today. It definitely feels like things have taken a darker turn with each day, especially as these charts of new cases keep going higher and higher.

Wisconsin is also seeing jumps in new cases, especially in my neck of the woods. These are weekly numbers as of a few days ago, but you'll see the pattern.

And further COVID-induced cutbacks and layoffs are already underway, following action today from Dane County's health department.

With 49% of new COVID-19 cases appearing in young people and more than 21% of the newly infected reporting recent trips to taverns, the joint Madison and Dane County public health department on Wednesday ordered reduced capacity at restaurants and shuttered bars for all but patio and take-out service.

The new restrictions represent a retreat in the county's Forward Dane plan to reopen the local economy amid the coronavirus pandemic, with bars forced to return to restrictions similar to those in place at the height of the outbreak in April before the statewide "safer at home" order was struck down in May by the Wisconsin Supreme Court....

A state Department of Health Services map of infection rates shows the census tract corresponding with UW-Madison's Greek Row area to have some of the highest rates of infection in the state.

I guess we should have seen it coming. Especially with no patio at the KK.

Lines to bars in Madison are already long on this Thursday.

There aren’t masks... pic.twitter.com/jE0nadClM3

— Lawrence Andrea (@lawrencegandrea) June 18, 2020

We're not going to see the effect of this second wave of COVID-19 shutdowns in the service industry in tomorrow's June jobs report, because that survey was taken 3 weeks ago, which was at the height of optimism surrounding the reopening of the economy. Any new job losses won't be revealed until the July report comes out in early August.

But we will also find out tomorrow if last week was the 15th straight week of 1 million+ new unemployment claims, and that figure doesn't seem like it'll subside any time soon. And if the number of Americans claiming unemployment benefits continues to be over 30 million, or God forbid goes even higher, there is little reason to think our 2-month bounce off of the bottoms of April will be lasting much longer.