All close Dem wins are not the same - how Wis has changed in the 21st Century

Neat articled from Craig Gilbert in the Journal-Sentinel where he points out that Wisconsin isn't the same 50-50 state that we had in 2004.

To begin with, rural Wisconsin used to be relatively even between Democrat and Republican, especially in Western Wisconsin. That's not the case today, as outstate Wisconsin has almost entirely become Trump Country, as you can see in this chart.

These smaller counties outside the state’s metros voted for Republican George W. Bush by a combined 5 points in 2004. They voted for Republican Trump by a combined 20 points in 2020.

The size of the swing is staggering in places: 21 mostly rural counties have shifted more than 20 points in their presidential margins since 2004. Six have shifted more than 30 points: Pepin, Rusk, Trempealeau, Buffalo, Clark and Adams. Kerry won Trempealeau in western Wisconsin by 16 points. Biden lost it by 17. Kerry won neighboring Buffalo by 7. Biden lost it by 25.

But at the same time, Democrats have made significant gains in the state's two largest media markets. And not just in the big cities of Madison and Milwaukee, but also in the suburbs and outlying counties.

Back in 2004, Bush won the Milwaukee media market (the state’s largest) by almost 4 points. In 2020, Trump lost it by almost 3 points... Something similar has happened in the Madison media market. Kerry won it by 21 points and roughly 107,000 votes. Biden won it by 30 points and more than 180,000 votes.

When you compare 2004 to 2020, it's almost as if the two parties engaged in a massive vote swap. That swap cost Democrats more than 140,000 votes outside of metropolitan southern Wisconsin. But in the broad Milwaukee to Madison corridor, Democrats gained that many and a few more.

This shift has notable significance in how this state's politics is going to look for the 2020s. It will be very hard for Dems to win control of the State Senate or Assembly if they continue to lose so badly outstate, and they will have to decide if they want to change strategies and emphases in issues if they want to win back some of those votes. At the same time, Republicans have lost voters in more educated and urbanized parts of the state due to their emphasis on "divide and conquer" cultural issues over constructively and honestly trying to solve problems.

The other variable playing in here are the shifts in population that'll be reflected in new maps for the House of Representatives and the State Legislature. According to the US Census Bureau, over 40% of Wisconsin's 135,448-person increase in population has come in Dane County, a jump that is more than 42,000 above any other county in the state. Also, if you take out the 8 counties with the largest growth in population, and even include the loss of 2,000+ people in Milwaukee County, the rest of the state has barely grown at all.

Now let's go back to this tweet from Marquette Law School professor Charles Franklin.

Wisconsin UNOFFFICIAL votes.

The map of the vote margin by county, and of the shift in margin from 2016 to 2020.

A familiar map of red and blue counties. Only Sauk and Door flipped, R->D

Margin change notable that WOW and BOW (Fox Valley) both getting smaller Rep margins

1/n pic.twitter.com/osu47aczO1

— Charles Franklin (@PollsAndVotes) November 9, 2020

Every one of those counties with the largest growth in population had Biden gain at least 4 points on Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton's performance in 2016. And while I don't buy into the "demographics is destiny" argument, and note that a lot of damage has happened to all people in this state in the decade that Dems have been shut out of power in the Legislature, it does mean that GOPs are going to struggle to win anything statewide if their Trumpist "culture/resentment" strategy continues, as Dems are gaining ground in the places where more people are choosing to come to.

Both parties in Wisconsin likely need to change strategy and talking points if they want to gain back some of the voters they have lost in the last 16 years. But a lot of constituents that make up the base of both parties is going to be a significant headwind to those efforts, and often the electoral incentives of trying to get one group of voters comes at the expense of more reliable voters. So barring some big event that makes many people rethink their priorities and status in life (which apparently has NOT happened with COVID), our politics seem likely to remain in the same kind of trench warfare that we've seen in Wisconsin for most of the last decade.