A close statewide election in Wisconsin doesn't mean a closely divided Legislature

Wanted to riff off of a breakdown by the Journal-Sentinel's Craig Gilbert on how elections for the Wisconsin State Legislature continue to be non-competitive.

Republicans won 61 of 99 state Assembly seats and 10 of 16 state Senate seats on the ballot in 2020. Only four of 99 Assembly races and one of 16 state Senate races were decided by less than 3 percentage points. Only eight Assembly races and one state Senate race were decided by less than 5 points.

This occurred in a year when the contest for president was determined by six-tenths of a point. In other words, the state as whole could not be more competitive. Yet 84% of Assembly races were decided by double digits. That’s a testament to not just the power of incumbency but how one-sided in their makeup most districts are....

The other main consequence — the map’s GOP tilt — can be measured by looking at how each district votes at the top of the ticket. Despite narrowly losing the statewide vote, Republican Donald Trump carried 62 of 99 Assembly districts and 22 of 33 state Senate districts.

In other words, more than 60% of the state’s legislative districts are more Republican than the state as whole, based on presidential voting. In 2016, 63% of Assembly districts were more Republican than average. In 2012, it was 60%.

This means that in a 50/50 election year when equal numbers of Republican and Democratic voters turn out and independents are split right down the middle, Republicans can be expected to win 60 or more Assembly seats. Put another way, they go into every election cycle with an inherent 20- to 30-seat advantage in the chamber.

Gilbert notes that some of this disparity is due to cities like Milwaukee and Madison being so heavily Dem that it's not likely to have a 50-50 outcome at the state level even if the statewide vote totals are 50-50. But some of this is certainly due to the maps drawn by WisGOPs in 2011, which you can see here.

I don't have the data set that Gilbert has in front of him (hey Craig, send it over!), but 2021 offers a chance to limit this disparity, as new districts have to be drawn at both the state and Congressional level. While Republicans control the Legislature, Governor Evers can veto the maps if they are done through the typical bill-making process.

While GOPs will likely try some kind of shenangians to get around Evers (be ready for it folks), I do think it'll be harder for Republicans to create maps for the 2020s that are as rigged as the ones in the 2010s. A big reason why is that the Milwaukee suburbs have become bluer, as shown by these results from November.

Here's another way of looking at the movement towards Democrats in Milwaukee County:

This chart shows the performance of each municipality compared to the statewide average in 2012 and 2020, as well as the change from these 2 elections. pic.twitter.com/Drx2EUWuUQ

— Andy Suchorski (@AndySuchorski) November 9, 2020

Wisconsin UNOFFFICIAL votes.

The map of the vote margin by county, and of the shift in margin from 2016 to 2020.

A familiar map of red and blue counties. Only Sauk and Door flipped, R->D

Margin change notable that WOW and BOW (Fox Valley) both getting smaller Rep margins

1/n pic.twitter.com/osu47aczO1

— Charles Franklin (@PollsAndVotes) November 9, 2020

This blew up the GOP's scheme in the 2010s map, because the "GOP" districts that connected Wauwatosa to Brookfield and Mequon to Whitefish Bay ended up flipping to Dems in 2020. My guess is that GOPs will make up a couple of blue-leaning districts in western and northern Milwaukee County and try to shore up districts in Ozaukee and Waukesha, instead of risking more lost districts in the burbs in the 2020s.

The gains for Republicans in northern, central and western Wisconsin during the 2010s will make for some interesting choices as the maps take place, both at the state level and for Congress. The flip side is that the Trumpiest areas of the 715 are also the ones losing population, so will that prevent the ability of Republicans to get any more seats out of that in this go-round?

Conversely, the population growth in Dane County likely will result in more districts being sent to that blue-voting area, and growth around Green Bay and Appleton might make it tougher to keep the State Senate seats around those two communities to stay in their current gerrymandered form, while not being as able to limit each metro area in the Fox Cities to one Assembly seat each.

These choices will be brought more into focus as we get district-level stats on votes in 2020, and the Census figures are finalized at the end of this month (well, supposed to be, anyway). I messed around with the Dave's Redistricting app a while ago, and made this map for Wisconsin, which leans 57-42 GOP based on election results from 2012-2018, and the 2018 population totals.

But many more districts are close and flippable, especially compared to the uncompetitive maps we have been under. Which is the difference in Wisconsin between a fair map and the gerrymandered garbage we have today.

So let's keep an eye on both the data and the map-making shenangians for 2021, as it likely can't end up more rigged against Dems at the state level than it is today. But the real question is how much more fairer might it become in a state that is stubbornly near 50-50 in overall votes.