A Holiday week makes for a break in COVID data in Wisconsin

The last week of November led to COVID-related data in Wisconsin seeming to take a turn for the better. But the Thanksgiving Holiday puts a major asterisk on the numbers, both in a lack of tests and measurements, and in what the actions around that holiday do for the numbers in December.

It seems like good news that Wisconsin had less than 30,000 new cases for the first week in more than a month, and deaths declined by 100 compared to the prior week.

But this number seems skewed by several government agencies being off for Thanksgiving, which means there were several days of reduced reporting from many parts of the state. This is also reflected in the large decline in the number of people tested in that week, down to the lowest levels since early October. This means the positivity rate is still above 30%, as it was for all of November.

That's what makes this week's numbers more telling about whether fewer people truly are coming down with COVID in the state, or if it's a Holiday-related blip. What we do know is that the lagging indicator of deaths is now back to pre-Thanksgiving levels, with this awful news from today.

Your #COVID19_WI update w/recovered cases at 82%, but a new record for deaths at 107. Remember, this is the date the death was reported to public health, not the date of death. As data fluctuates from day to day, we encourage you to monitor overall trends: https://t.co/mAVfWJMI4M pic.twitter.com/fKaS95qTfO

— WIDeptHealthServices (@DHSWI) December 1, 2020

Now I can hope Wisconsinites did the smart thing and limited their travels and the circle of individuals they were in contact with over Thanksgiving, and that the lower case numbers are a sign that we'll stop setting records for deaths and hospitalizations in the state. But the lack of testing is going to make it hard to find out if we are truly Stopping the Spread for the next few days, and given the lag in time between infection and a positive test, these next 10 days feel crucial in seeing if there is any chance of things getting better in Wisconsin for the last month of 2020.