Thursday, December 17, 2020

Unemployment claims make a comeback while stimulus stagnates

As Congress continues to discuss stimulus possibilities, more Americans are getting laid off as Winter deepens. One week after a jump in new unemployment claims by a seasonally-adjusted 144,000 (and 238,000 overall), the number went even higher in the 2nd week of December.
The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose again last week to 885,000, the highest weekly total since September, as a resurgence of coronavirus cases threatens the economy’s recovery from its springtime collapse.

The Labor Department said Thursday that the number of applications increased from 862,000 the previous week. It showed that nine months after the virus paralyzed the economy, many employers are still slashing jobs as the pandemic forces more business restrictions and leads many consumers to stay home. The number of claims was much higher than the 800,000 that economists had expected.

Before the coronavirus erupted in March, weekly jobless claims had typically numbered only about 225,000. The far-higher current pace reflects an employment market under stress and diminished job security for many.
We also saw a rise of 40,000 in new claims under the PUA program, which is intended for gig workers and others who can’t get “regular” unemployment benefits. Put that together, and there are a whole lot of Americans that were filing claims last week. It’s especially alarming to see PUA rise, because that program is schedule to expire after next week unless an extension can be agreed to in a stimulus package (which still hasn’t been formally released as of Thursday night). Another 5.5 million that were receiving regular unemployment benefits for more than 26 weeks are also in danger of being cut off.

This chart reflects the number as of the end of November, the last date for continuing claims data for all of the large-scale unemployment programs. And you can see a jump of 1.3 million people that were receiving benefits in the week of Thanksgiving.
Interestingly, Wisconsin had an improvement in its figures last week, as new unemployment claims in our parts dropped back to 14,478 after jumping to 21,700 the week before. Continuing “regular” claims also went back below 100,000, declining by more than 7,400 and getting under 97,000.

But we also found out that Wisconsin has more people at risk of being cut off in 9 days, including more than 4,000 additional Sconnies filing PUA claims, and more than 5,000 individuals going on the 26-39 week PEUC program. Most shockingly, the number of Extended Benefits (EB) claims in Wisconsin rose from 21 to more than 10,800 in 1 week, reflecting those receiving benefits for more than 39 weeks.

That jump in EB came in the last week in November, and seems to coincide with the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development notifying the public that long-term unemployed individuals could file for EB. The problem is that Wisconsin fell off the EB program last month, which means that these claims only reflect weeks up to the start of November. And if no stimulus gets through, you're looking at 111,000 claims that would not get paid after next week. Combine that with the end of expanded food assistance benefits, and the prospect of plans changing if those individuals got their insurance through Obamacare, and it’s a scary time for a whole lot of people in the state.

While a large number of his constituents are in peril, what is Wisconsin’s Senior Senator concentrating on? And what are the members of our gerrymandered State Legislature up to at the same time, when the states are facing extra burdens and costs to keep their residents afloat? Way to have things in perspective during the Holiday season, guys.
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