Past COVID spike means deaths in MKE, but rural, low-vaxxed areas getting worst of it now

When COVID cases started jumping in late July and early August in Wisconsin, I was hoping that we wouldn't see a notable increase in death a month later. But that's precisely what has happened.

It was expected that there would be a reporting lag after the long Labor Day weekend but the 32 deaths reported Thursday is the highest mark since Feb 15. And it follows 17 deaths reported Wednesday.

More than half of the recent COVID-19 deaths have occurred in southeastern Wisconsin, particularly Milwaukee and Waukesha counties, but the state reported deaths in other counties as well like Dodge, Rock and Winnebago.

The Milwaukee County Medical Examiner listed 10 COVID-related deaths in the last 3 days on its website. Those who died this week in Milwaukee County ranged in age from 48 to 90 years old.

The seven-day statewide average of daily deaths has risen to 11 per day, which is the highest mark since Feb. 15. Just a month ago, the seven-day average was one death a day.

On Wednesday, we got a better look at the state of COVID in every Wisconsin county through the Department of Health Services’ weekly summary. The associated map of “high vs very high” amounts of cases wasn’t very different in this week compared to last. But one positive note is that the counties with significantly fewer new cases outnumbered the ones that had significant growth, which is the first time we’ve seen that in quite a while.

The down side is that those places with shrinking amounts of new cases are still having rates near or above the statewide 14-day rate of 463.3 per 100,000 Wisconsinites. And while the Madison area has stayed at a relatively low level of new cases and the Milwaukee metro area has plateaued for the last month, rural Northern and Western Wisconsin are now the sites of the worst outbreaks in the state.

Highest rate of new cases per 100,000 people.
Aug 25 – Sep 7 time period
Forest County 805.9
Taylor County 748.3
Oconto County 711.2
Trempealeau Co. 695.5
Chippewa County 671.1
Barron County 660.4
Green Lake Co. 660.1
Monroe County 634.8
Eau Claire Co. 623.0
Wood County 591.7

In a state where 52% of Wisconsinites are fully vaccinated, 8 of these 10 counties have had less than ½ of its population get all of their shots. And outside of Eau Claire County, the other 9 counties voted for Donald Trump last November with numbers ranging from 57.4% (Trempealeau) to 71.6% (Taylor).

Let’s see if that trend continues for the start of school, as all of these counties outside of Eau Claire and Trempealeau also have their rates of vaccination under the state average for students ages 12-17. We’ll see that school-related data in the next couple of weeks, and if this kind of regional disparity continue, that’ll tell us a lot. It’s not a good situation, and the failure of too many Wisconsinites to get the vaccine when they first had the chance helps explain why we are now seeing the spikes in the places they are at.

But we also have a few more weeks left before the weather forces more of us indoors, so if the recent trend of increased vaccination starts to pay off with a decline in cases and hospitalizations, we might be able to keep things operating at a reasonably normal level. That's what we need to shoot for, because I don't think any of us want to suffer through another depressing COVID winter.