New Census numbers helped rural Wis, hurt MKE. Also explains some of 2020 voting patterns

Since the US Census released their official population figures, I hadn't gone back to looking at how the final numbers differed from past estimates, and if that changed a pattern I noted after the 2020 election - where it was Donald Trump and Trump-voting areas that benefitted from higher-than-expected turnout in Wisconsin.

In the original analysis, I checked "increased votes vs increased population" for all counties in Wisconsin, based on the 2019 Census estimates, which were the most recent numbers available at the time. And it showed that most of the counties that had the largest relative increase in votes were counties that shifted even more toward Trump than they did in 2016 (shown in red).

In addition, the increase in votes in Milwaukee and Dane Counties were not suspicious at all by comparison - the exact opposite of the Big Lies being spread on AM radio and other RW GOPper-ganda.

But then the 2020 Census figures came out, and we knew there were some surprise shifts in population. Particularly, the state had more people than we were on track to have (based on prior estimates), and much of that unexpected growth was in Northern Wisconsin, as well as a more severe drop in population in the City of Milwaukee.

With that in mind, I split up the decade's population changes by the estimated change from 2010-2016, and then the change from 2016 to the actual Census number in 2020. Note how much population outstate Wisconsin allegedly gains in the last 4 years of the decade.

So I re-ran the numbers. The surprise increase in votes in some counties in Trump Country is not as significant as we first thought (although Menominee's turnout is even more impressive), and the turnout in Milwaukee County wasn't as far behind as the initial numbers indicated. I'll remind you that the red/blue figure is based on whether votes went more toward Dems/GOPs in 2020 (when it had a 1.4% shift to Dems statewide).

Which leads me to 2 conclusions.

1. The reason WisGOPs do so much Trumpy BS is because of that boosted turnout in rural areas, and the only reason the presidential race was even close in Wisconsin in 2020 is because of the higher-than-expected vote totals. So the gamble WisGOP is pulling is that they can take back some of the losses they had in 2020 in red-voting suburbs, holding down the vote in growing blue areas, and continue to stir up the rubes in the sticks.

What upsets that plan? Dems improving in either the rural areas, or the suburbs. On ideology, the rural areas should be fertile territory for Dems who believe in expanded broadband, improved community schools, better roads, and expanded access to health care, but it's a two-way street, and voters have to choose those reasons over "cultural" reasons. Meanwhile, the suburbs are more likely to have people be vaccinated, support gun control, and oppose WisGOP regression/racism on cultural issues.

The Dems can give both messages to both sets of voters, but need to be blasting those messages directly to the voters, instead of relying on regular media to get that message to people who consistently tune out everyday media. There is no WisDem equivalent to WisGOP-perganda on AM Radio, or Facebook misinformation, and trutsting reason and ideas to win on their own is a losing strategy for Dems in 2022. You gotta fight for it and put it in people's faces.

2. We know the Trump Administration messed with Census in 2020, and used the COVID-19 pandemic as a reason to cut the count short. Is that part of the reason why we saw so much population loss in Milwaukee County (especially among People of Color) and surprise increases in population in rural Wisconsin?

And given that unvaxxed, rural areas of Wisconsin have been getting the worst of the COVID pandemic in 2021, have the universe of voters in those parts of the state had a notable decline in 2022? That won't mean much for Legislative districts that are drawn based on these numbers (more representation is going to rural areas as result), but it would definitely show in the many statewide races in 2022.

How you interpret these numbers explain a lot as to why certain strategies and messages will be given out over the next year, and you can bet at least one of the main political parties in the state will choose the wrong thing, based on what they think those numbers tell them.