More proof that inflation is already moderating and economy slowing. But Fed not yet adjusting to reality.

As data from August and September starts to come in, it's becoming evident that the Fed's rate hikes are succeding in slowing down activity in housing and construction. And it's looking like manufacturing is also starting to slide.

August construction spending -0.7% vs. +0.3% est. & -0.6% prior (rev down from -0.4%); two consecutive monthly declines (first since pandemic erupted) … private construction -0.6%; private residential -0.9%; private residential home improvement +1%; public -0.8% pic.twitter.com/fX4KOKH6Jx

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) October 3, 2022

Manufacturers' Goods

New orders for manufactured goods in August decreased less than $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $548.4 billion.

Source: US #Census Bureau#CensusEconData #wproconnecthttps://t.co/HEx1dXlyzE

— WProConnect (@wproconnect) October 4, 2022

Prices Paid: down for 6th month in a row at 51.7

Supplier Deliveries (supply chain): down for 5th month at 52.4

New Orders (demand): down 4 points to lowest since June 2020 at 47.1

Production: steady at low/neutral level of 50.6 2/3 pic.twitter.com/CTirVkbuUZ

— MillStreetResearch (@MillStResearch) October 4, 2022

I will note the decline in "prices paid", which indicates to me that inflation is leveling off, if not outright deflating in some areas. And even some things that will improve GDP numbers for Q3 2022 comes with indications that inflation pressures should wane.

The US trade deficit shrank for a fifth month in August to the smallest in more than a year, reflecting a decline in the value of imports that’s poised to lend support to economic growth in the third quarter https://t.co/Zg7ROIZip2

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 5, 2022

August wholesale inventories (blue) +1.3% vs. +0.4% est. & +0.6% prior; retail inventories (orange) +1.4% vs. +1.0% est. & +1.1% prior pic.twitter.com/as14rRkPBv

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) September 28, 2022

But yet central bankers keep insisting that inflation is the main economic concern, and think that rates need to go even higher.

Some economists and agencies say the Fed’s tightening is going too far, too fast. IMF chief says policy makers need to stay the course in their fight to tame inflation despite short-term pains. https://t.co/Ep6Ke5UwYq

— Yuka Hayashi (@TokyoWoods) October 6, 2022

Fed. Gov. Waller knocks down the idea that the Fed will be changing (or toning down) its course:

“Let me be clear that this is not something I'm considering or believe to be a very likely development. I am a little confused by this speculation.” pic.twitter.com/CW3L9eItMC

— Megan Cassella (@mmcassella) October 6, 2022

Easy for them to say from their board rooms, but out here in the real world, I think these guys are fighting the last war and at this point they are unneccesarily putting a lot of working people at risk. And how is a rate hike going to do anything about inflation caused by supply chain tightness or market manipulation through oligarchs like OPEC?

We're now at a point that many are likely wishing for a less-than-great jobs report with lower wage growth tomorrow, in the hopes that the Fed will start to back off on its plans to derail the economy and the strong employment market in the name of "price stability". And all of that seems very stupid.