Even outside consultants agree WisDems are the only ones that can do fair maps

Those of us who believe in fairness and decency figured that we'd hear good news this week from the 2 PoliSci professors that are looking at possible redraws of Wisconsin's Legislative maps. But I was still surprised to see their report (which you can read here) say this.

COURT NEWS: Consultants hired by state Supreme Court find maps from GOP lawmakers, conservative law firm WILL partisan gerrymanders not worth further consideration. Four 4 Dem maps similar in meeting criteria. Decline to draw their own maps unless court orders them to do so.

— JR Ross (@jrrosswrites) February 2, 2024

Consultants reject claim GOP majorities due to geography. Wrote Dems would need "well above majority" to win Legislature under GOP maps.

"That kind of insulation from the forces of electoral change is the hallmark of a gerrymander. To put it simply, geography is not destiny.” https://t.co/0QZob0Rzj9

— JR Ross (@jrrosswrites) February 2, 2024

Which tells you that the consultants were looking at OUTCOMES over how a map might "look" geographically or other criteria. Basically a "reverse gerrymander", undoing outcomes that are not in line with the wishes of the statewide electorate.

This is further illustrated by a number of analyses the consultants gave which discussed results of statewide elections since 2016, and whether the winner of those races carried a majority of seats in the State Assembly and State Senate. They combined that information into a stat called mean-median which is the difference between the outcome in the statewide races, and where the control of a legislative chamber may happen.

The Dem-drawn maps all were relatively close on this measure. The GOP gerrymanders? They were not (although the "Johnson" maps from WILL are at least closer than the garbage we have today).

The consultants also included a stat called "Majoritarian Concordance", which looks at how often the statewide winner would have also won a majority of districts in the Legislature. The GOP gerrymander is obvious here, but there is also a bit of difference between the Dem maps.

In digging into this stat further, I note that Tony Evers' 1.2% win in 2018 would have still seen Republicans winning a majority of Assembly seats in every one of these maps, and all but 1 of the Senate maps. But Joe Biden's 0.6% win in 2020 also is a Dem win on half of the Dem maps, and Josh Kaul's 1.4% win in 2022 is a Dem majority in 3 of 4 Dem maps (albeit not the same 3 of 4, which is interesting).

On the flip side, Republican Ron Johnson's 1.0% win in 2022 is an Assembly GOP majority in 3 of the 4 Dem maps, and a Senate GOP majority in 2 of the 4. That is also the way it should work. I'm a staunch Dem, but I'm not a hack, and if GOPs can actually win statewide, they deserve to be in control.

So let's review these maps, and I'll use the Senate maps for ease of viewing. First, we have the maps Governor Evers sent to SCOWIS.

Then, we have the maps that were presented by Clarke and the other defendants in the lawsuit against the WisGOP Legislature.

Then here is what the Wisconsin Senate Dems wanted to be able to run on.

And the last map is one drawn up by a set of mathematicians who wanted balance as much as possible, which is listed as "Wright" in the consultants analyses.

Based on the consultants' report, I like the Clarke maps and Governor Evers' maps for fairness. And given that the Clarke maps run the table in picking the Assembly winners in the 2020s, and split up fewer communities and wards than any map not drawn up by WILL, I'd lean toward that one, if I had one to pick.

I would guess/hope that means the Wisconsin Supreme Court would choose one of these 4 maps, using various criteria that I would think they'd explain in their decision. And that we find out in the next month, to both satisfy the Wisconsin Elections Commission's deadline, and to allow the GOP to inevitably try their Hail Mary attempt to get the US Supreme Court to break their own precedent, and try to interfere with a State Legislature's map largely drawn on the basis of election outcomes.

If the maps are allowed to stand, then we get our first legitimate fight for legislative control in 14 years, and it's something that is so badly needed. Not only because I think it'll lead to better policy outcomes, but also because many more legislators will finally have to stop worrying as much about what their party bosses and dimwitted primary interests think, and care more about normal Wisconsin voters who just want our lawmakers to deal with real problems, and try to give them a better chance of success and fairness in their everyday lives.