Wis loses jobs in July. But no need to panic yet.

As US job growth slowed in July, we had an outright step backward for jobs in Wisconsin in that same month.

Preliminary employment estimates for July 2024 showed Wisconsin's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 3.0%, which is 1.3 percentage points below the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. The state's labor force participation rate held steady at 65.5% in July while the national rate was 62.7%.

• Place of Residence Data: Wisconsin's unemployment rate was 3.0% in July, 1.3 percentage points below the national rate of 4.3%. Wisconsin's labor force increased 2,800 over the month and increased 1,800 over the year. The number of people employed increased 1,300 over the month to a record-high 3,049,700 employed.

• Place of Work Data: Total nonfarm jobs decreased 6,500 over the month and increased 25,700 over the year to 3,035,100 jobs. Private sector jobs decreased 8,500 over the month and increased 17,900 over the year to 2,625,700 private jobs.

That is not good, and it mostly wipes out the gains we saw since March.

However, I also don’t think this jobs report means we plunged into recession last month, and not only because month-to-month variances at the state level can be jumpy. I’ll note that the biggest drop in jobs in July happened in the Leisure and Hospitality sector, with a seasonally-adjusted decline of 4,400 jobs. However, I’ll note that this isn’t due to a wave of bars, restaurants and hotels closing, but instead is due to the sector having an lower-than-normal increase in positions for July (+3,400 overall, and +3,700 in accommodations and food services).

We’ll see if this reverses in the coming months when the seasonal adjustments count on layoffs in this sector as the Summer ends. Likewise, while it’s concerning to see the previously-growing Construction (-1,000 jobs, seasonally adjusted) and Manfacturing (-200) sectors lose out in July, it also reflects lower-than-normal seasonal hiring. So while I don't like to see the seasonally-adjusted decline in Construction since March, let's see if that is just a lack of hiring instead of cutbacks. And the overall trend of manufacturing is still in a good direction.

So while Wisconsin did have a bad jobs report for July, I’ll hold off on the panic until we see the seasonal-adjusted numbers in September and October.

And in the wake of lower revisions for US job growth after the release of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), I wanted to see if Wisconsin's past job growth might also be reduced. It looks like there is a slight difference, but nothing that changes the overall story (+0.6% in the QCEW, +0.75% in the monthly job reports).

So to summarize, July's jobs report for Wisconsin was lacking, but I'll wait for the coming months of data before I think it shows any kind of turning point from what had been decent job growth in 2024 before last month.