Here a few updated numbers on where we are with the Big Beautiful Pile of Garbage that Trump/GOP are trying to get through Congress. First off,
here's the Congressional Budget Office's release on total economic effects and interest rates on the House version of Tax Scam 2.0.
The economic effects of H.R. 1 would decrease the primary deficit by $85 billion over the 2025-2034 period, primarily reflecting an increase in economic output; and
• The bill would increase interest rates, which would boost interest payments on the baseline projection of federal debt by $441 billion....
Real (that is, adjusted to remove the effects of inflation) GDP would increase by an average of 0.5 percent over the 2025-2034 period,
• Interest rates on 10-year Treasury notes would go up by an average of 14 basis points (a basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point) over the period...
The effects of those rate changes on net interest outlays are large because the existing stock of debt is historically large. Because of the large stock of debt projected in the baseline, those increases in interest payments more than offset the primary deficit reductions driven by increases in economic output. The interest rate changes result from both the tax provisions analyzed by JCT [the Joint Committee on Taxation] and the remaining provisions of H.R. 1 analyzed by CBO. Because the tax provisions increase the deficit by more than the nontax provisions reduce the deficit (especially in the earlier years of the 2025-2034 period), the tax provisions are an important driver behind the higher interest rates that lead to increased net outlays for interest on the baseline projection of federal debt.
So CBO says the price tag for the bill would be even higher than what we see in just the taxing and spending part, because it'll cost more to pay off the higher amounts of debt.
But Republicans in the Senate have a plan on how to reduce the cost of the Big Beautiful Budget Buster.
Force the scorekeepers into saying that the tax cuts don't cost anything at all. Senate Republicans have directed the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) to score the cost of extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts as a continuation of current policy that would not add significantly to federal deficits, which would allow them to make those tax rates permanent.
The joint panel on taxation, which projects the deficit impact of all tax bills, scored the extension of 26 provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as a continuation of “current policy” and therefore budget neutral, which dramatically lowers the projected cost of President Trump’s megabill.
But if that were true, then
why would you need a literal act of Congress to pass the tax cuts? Of course, we should be judging the change in the deficit on this bill based on WHAT THIS BILL WOULD CAUSE.
Pathetic stuff, and budget expert Bobby Kogan of the Center for American Progress has the real numbers, based on what's been scored on the Senate's version of Tax Scam 2.0.
And do you really think GOPs wouldn't try to renew a lot of this regressive Scam if given the chance, no matter what the price tag would cost? Cynical stuff, but that's the way that Trump/GOPs roll.
CBO also says that the higher debt costs would cause inflation to be 0.12% above baseline in 2027, and that doesn’t count
the 0.4% increase that would happen in each of the next two years if tariffs would continue at their current rates.
We still don't know everything that's in the Senate version of this Robin Hood in Reverse scheme, but we're supposed to get a vote on this multi-trillion pile of debt later this week? We'll see about that one, but no matter what emerges, you can bet these GOP budget gimmicks and added red ink would be a lot more costly than what the $2.5 trillion reconcilation limits would indicate.
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