Trump/GOPs in DC forcing Wisconsinites to pay a lot for Obamacare. The WisGOPs are fine with that

Before the shutdown happened, the Congressional Budget Office said that it would cost around $35 billion a year for the next decade to bring back the expanded tax credits for Obamacare policies. In return, CBO says restoring the tax credits would not only allow milions more Americans to have health insurance, but would also cut the costs both out of pocket (due to the higher tax write-offs), and would lower the baseline premiums themselves.

CBO and JCT estimate that permanently enacting the expanded premium tax credit structure would increase deficits by $349.8 billion over the 2026–2035 period. Using HISIM2, CBO’s health insurance simulation model, the agency estimates that the number of people with health insurance would increase by 3.6 million in 2030 and by 3.8 million in 2035.

CBO also estimates that gross premiums for benchmark plans in the marketplaces would be 7.6 percent lower, on average, in each year from 2026 to 2035, relative to baseline projections. (The premium estimates reflect the amount before the tax credit is applied.) The estimated decline in benchmark premiums is the result of the expectation that people enrolling in the marketplaces would be healthier on average if the expanded premium tax credit were extended.

If the permanent expansion were enacted on September 30, 2025, CBO estimates, premiums for the 2026 plan year would be 2.4 percent lower than baseline projections. That estimate is less than the average effect of 7.6 percent over the next decade, in part, because it accounts for a 50 percent probability that 2026 premiums would not be adjusted to account for expected changes in risk pools because the assumed enactment date is later than insurers typically set their premiums.

The CBO goes on to say that there are other provisions in that Big Bunch of BS that would also iadd to the number of Americans with insurance if they were to be taken down.

CBO and JCT estimate that repealing the sections of the 2025 reconciliation act that affect the health insurance marketplaces would increase deficits by $271.9 billion over the 2026–2035 period. CBO estimates that the number of people with health insurance would increase by 2.8 million in 2030 and by 2.9 million in 2035.

That includes items which: ·Prevent various legal immigrant groups from getting tax credits, such as thos e who have received asylum, DACA recipients, temporary workers, student exchange visitors, and trafficking victims. It also includes lawfully present immigrants living below the poverty line.

None of the people listed above are "illegal immigrants", as the increasingly desperate Republicans claim. When they say this, they are LYING AND DEFLECTING.

And as a sidebar, I want to credit to the Journal-Sentinel’s Anna Kleiber for including this act of actual journalism at the end of her article on the health care part of the government shutdown.

Republicans say the Democrats' proposal would open up subsidized ACA coverage to people who are in the country illegally, but undocumented immigrants are largely ineligible for federal health benefits and don't qualify for comprehensive Medicaid coverage, Medicare or the Children's Health Insurance Program. They also can't purchase federally subsidized health plans on exchanges backed by the Affordable Care Act.

The Democratic plan would, however, restore coverage to certain categories of immigrants who would lose access to ACA due to the GOP tax-cut bill. Coverage would be restored to asylum seekers, refugees, people on work visas and students.

Undocumented immigrants have never been eligible for ACA subsidies and coverage. That would not change under the Democrats' proposal.

In addition, the Big Bunch of BS put up other barriers to non-immigrant Americans that want health coverage on the Obamacare exchanges, such as:

·Preventing anyone with incomes at or below 150% of poverty from enrolling at any time other than the regular enrollment period.

·After 2028, requiring paperwork on proof of income and having already filed a previous year’s tax returns if they’ve received tax credits for Obamacare. (who is going to be able to do that if they haven’t had to file their taxes at the time they need health insurance? And how long is it going to take to gather and verify that paperwork?)

·Forcing higher repayments of excess tax credits (which wouldn’t be known until taxes are filed the following Spring), which make people not be able to afford future policies, and not want to deal with getting Obamacare in the first place. Naturally, these types of regulations and extra efforts may delight privileged groups who want to see the needy suffer, but it sure won’t help improve our economy and health outcomes.

Put it together, and here's what the CBO has said are the costs, as well as the millions of Americans who would get health care if we got rid of those provisions from the Big Bunch of BS.

I think we can reverse the $51 billion in additional funding for ICE and the military for next year that Trump/GOP threw into this budget, and maybe shear off some of those tax cuts to the rich and corporate, and we will easily be able to restore the tax credits. After all, people having and keeping health insurance would do a lot more to improve our society and our economy than whatever ICE, the military and the giveaways to the rich and corporate are doing these days.

But it just the people that will lose health insurance that are going to get hurt in the coming weeks due to the Trump/GOP's BS Bill. The Kaiser Family Family Foundation recently estimated that post-credit premiums for a typical Obamacare exchange policy will more than double for Americans that continued getting covered that way.

Based on the earlier federal data and more recent other publicly available information, KFF now estimates that, if Congress extends enhanced premium tax credits, subsidized enrollees would save $1,016 in premium payments over the year in 2026 on average. In other words, expiration of the enhanced premium tax credits is estimated to more than double what subsidized enrollees currently pay annually for premiums—a 114% increase from an average of $888 in 2025 to $1,904 in 2026. (The average premium payment net of tax credits among subsidized enrollees held steady at $888 annually in 2024 and 2025 due to the enhanced premium tax credits).

That report from KFF also includes a good illustration of how these enhanced credits go on top of what already existed with the original ACA, and how the end of those credits will result in some serious sticker shock.

And the premiums themselves will be significantly higher on the exchanges next year, even more than CBO predicted a month ago. That's in part because costs in health care keep going up, and in part because fewer people will be able to purchase coverage in general, making it likely that those remaining will be more frequent and costly users of insurance.

KFF says that the median premium for individuals buying policies on the exchange will rise by 15%, and a look at Wisconsin’s announced increases for next year’s policies shows that our state’s median is around that point. But some companies are raising it by quite a bit more than that.

It’s worth remembering that an especially large number of working-poor Wisconsinites rely on the exchanges for their health insurance because of the WisGOPs’ refusal to expand Medicaid through the ACA, which would allow people between 100% and 138% of the poverty line to go onto BadgerCare while also grabbing a larger percentage of coverage from the Feds (this includes single individuals making between $15,650 and just under $21,600 this year, and a family of four with income between $32,150 and a bit below $44,400). That didn’t change in the Big Bunch of Bollocks, and is a way to extend health coverage to people without them having to worry about what might happen to costs and coverages on the exchange.

And yet, less than 2 weeks ago, we saw state-level Wisconsin Republicans not only continue to refuse to expand Medicaid in the state, they also didn't want Wisconsinites to get the enhanced tax credits to help in pay for their Obamacare policies.

With less than 24 hours until a potential shutdown of the federal government, Wisconsin Assembly Republican leaders are urging the U.S. Senate to pass a spending bill that extends funding without the Affordable Care Act subsidies Democrats want.

Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, Majority Leader Tyler August and other leaders sent a letter Sept. 29 to Senate leaders asking them to pass the GOP spending plan and avert a shutdown.

"Holding the federal government funding hostage is not just a Washington D.C. debate for political points, it will have real and immediate consequences that cannot be overlooked," the lawmakers wrote. "From impacting pay for our troops, first responders, and firefighters to affecting critical services for seniors and veterans and disrupting food assistance for families in need, a government shutdown would inflict severe consequences that are completely avoidable."

First of all, there's nothing stopping Senate GOPs from removing the filibuster to pass this budget. They are choosing not to, which allows Dems to block any Continuing Resolution despite having only 47 Senators vs 53 Republicans.

And if Republicans think wanting to increase health coverage, and not allowing the bill to pass until that happens is "scoring political points", then maybe they shouldn't stick with such unpopular policies that will lead to higher costs for the 300,000+ Wisconsinites that currently get insurance on the Obamacare exchanges. It's up to Dems at the state level in Wisconsin to tell voters that ALL REPUBLICANS are good with the extra costs that Wisconsinites are facing. Because they clearly are, as the self-inflicted idiocy that Trump/GOPs in DC are doing with health care is fully supported by the WisGOPs in the Legislature.

And it's why I think Dems in DC should stand strong and not go out of their way to bail out the GOPs by expanding these tax credits before Americans have to sign up for Obamacare in the coming weeks, unless there's also an agreement to get ICE off our streets and stop having Russ Vought steal our tax dollars and try to lay off the DC workers that actually know stuff. Because when everyday people actually see and feel what's changed under Trump/GOP Big Bunch of BS, they're going to furious, and they will rightfully blame the GOPs for it.

And given how panicky and absurd the GOPs on Capitol Hill are acting these days, it's clear they know they're losing as well.

Republicans have had 15 years to come up with an Obamacare replacement plan. They still haven’t

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— Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) October 9, 2025 at 3:21 PM