Polls and politicians should adjust after last night, and know WisDems are in a good spot

Yesterday’s results in elections were a clear win for Democrats pretty much across the board. Yes, smaller sample size than a Congressional midterm or Presidential election, but it’s also not nothing, especially in the large margin of the Democratic wins in the places they won in.

It also brought me back to last month’s Marquette Law School Poll, which had an electorate set up this way.

That may seem lopsided, but it is not much different than what the adjusted exit polls indicated that Party ID was in Wisconsin for 2024’s election.

But an R+3 or R+4 electorate isn’t what we saw in Virginia and New Jersey yesterday, which showed a strong shift to Democrats. That matches up with a finding that Gallup had in July which showed a nationwide change in Party ID from R+4 to D+3 by this Summer.

And those surveys took place before the shutdown and hike in Obamacare premiums and ICE getting further out of control. All of which have seen Republicans sit on their hands and avoid doing anything about any of these unpopular things that they are 100% in ownership of. So I can’t think those Party ID numbers are any better now.

But let’s be charitable to the GOP and only turn Wisconsin’s electorate from R+4 to one evenly split between the 2 parties (call it 33.5% to 33.5%), with the same 25% of Independents and 8% of “Other/No preference” (which is lumped together as “Independents”. Then take the answers among those groups from the recent Marquette Poll. Start with Trump approval, which has the following crosstabs.

That pushes Trump’s approval-disapproval down around 44-54 from 46-53. It’s only a 3-point difference, but you also can’t say things haven’t changed from where Trump's approval was last year.

And if you’re a Republican in the Wisconsin Legislature, an even split between Dems and Republicans next November puts you in big trouble, because the voters of the state don't like what the GOPs have been doing while in control of both houses.

Now, you may remember that I had the same criticism about the GOP +5 tilt of Chuckly Franklin’s final pre-election poll in 2024, and it turned out that he correctly modeled the young bros and other casuals that would come out and ID as Republican or Independent.

But the polls in Virginia and New Jersey badly missed the shift to Dems in both Party ID and results last night (by 4 points in VA and 7 in NJ). It's also worth noting that Dems gained 9 and 7 points in yesterday’s Governor races in VA and NJ compared to Kamala Harris’ 6-point wins in each of those states last year.

Again, I’ll be conservative and give half that shift to Wisconsin (we may be different, but we’re not that different here), and that would translate to a 4-point move and a relatively comfortable win of more than 3% in 2026 for Dems at the top of the ticket here. So what did the map look like for Tony Evers’ 3.5% win from 2022 with the new districts in place? Let’s go to Dave’s Redistricting and find out.

Here’s the Congressional map.

See that Evers won District 3 (by 49.6-49.1)? Then add in the fact that GOP incumbent Derrick Van Orden beat Rebecca Cooke by 4.5% less than Trump beat Harris in District 3, and you gotta think Cooke is favored in a rematch. And Evers only lost District 1 by 0.2%, which means GOP Bryan Steil is in big trouble for re-election if he's strongly contested in a similar type of year.

And if the shift is a VA-NJ-level of 7-9%? Coffee Boy Steil is likely gone unless he is somehow thought of as different as Trump and the other GOPs in DC - which would be quite a trick when he chairs the powerful House Administration Committee and is standing next to Mike Johnson and other House GOP Leaders when they are saying garbage like this about peaceful No Kings participants.

Emmer: "This is about one thing and one thing alone -- to score political points with the terrorist wing of their party, which is set to hold a hate America rally in DC next week."

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) October 10, 2025 at 9:25 AM

Yeah, Steil ain't going to be able to separate himself from them.

And just like how Virginia Democrats got a near-supermajority in their lower house during last night's elections, you'd have to think Dems would be set to win further down the ticket if they're winning at the top. So let's look at how Evers did in his 3.5% victory in the State Senate districts, and keep in mind that only odd-numbered districts are up in 2026.

That means Dems should be favored in districts 5, 17, and 21, which are currently held by Republicans. If Dems flip those 3, they run the Senate 18-15.

And here’s the State Assembly.

. That one blue dot on the other side of the vertical line means that Evers won 50 of the state's 99 districts as he was winning the state by 3.5%

Considering the Democratic overperformance basically everywhere last night, you have to think the potential of a Democratic trifecta in Wisconsin in 2026 has become just a bit more likely.

— Dan Shafer (@danshafer.bsky.social) November 5, 2025 at 10:01 AM

It's definitely in play.

Obviously a lot can and will happen in the next year, so don’t assume the Dems have an easy glide into power for 2026. But winning the whole enchilada sure seems possible, along with a pickup of at least 1-2 seats in the US House. And if I was an elected Republican in Madison or DC, I’d definitely look for ways not to be a feckless Trumper in the coming months.