Americans say things are bad because of what is, what could happen

It's no secret that Americans have been increasingly unhappy about the US economy, with consumer sentiment at the lowest level measured and consumer confidence mired near the lowest levels in over a decade.

Not surprisingly, this gloominess shows up in Gallup’s annual survey of Americans about their finances. In that survey, less than half of Americans said their current financial situation was good or excellent for the fifth year in a row.

But worse is that the percentage of Americans saying their financial situation is poor is at its highest level in 15 years, and matches what they were saying during the Great Recession.

In addition, Gallup says that they are seeing the highest percentage of Americans saying their finances are getting worse in the 25 years that they’ve asked the question. And that percentage has gone up 8% in the two years since April 2024 – the last full year Joe Biden was President.

And yet the stock market has recovered all of its losses from March and reached new highs in this month. I know the stock market isn’t the real economy, but these traders have seemed especially disconnected from reality in recent weeks, trading up or down based on whatever BS our clueless President may post.

That said, it does seem like there has been a break in other parts of the financial markets this week, where there is a realization that the Hormusz blockades aren't going away tomorrow, which means disruptions to oil supply are going to be a continuing concern.

Oops, sorry. That’s the 10-year US Treasury Note yield over the last week, which shows that Wall Street is realizing that interest rates aren’t coming down any time soon, and that long-lasting inflation is a growing possibility.

Here’s the oil chart.

And on top of that, gas prices have now blasted past $4 a gallon nationwide with an increase of more than 5% over the last week. And while Wisconsin's average price isn't there yet, we've also had prices going up.

I saw my first pump price start with a $4___ in Madison today, so that average number likely will be significantly higher soon. But we have yet to see gasoline consumption (or most consumer consumption, for that matter) be affected by the bombs falling in the Middle East over the last 2 months. In fact, the numbers are slightly above what we’ve had over the last 3 years, despite the higher prices of today.

So if it isn't bad enough to change behavior, why are American consumers so depressed and/or angry? Another finding from the Gallup poll gave a lot of the explanation to me.

Notice that the most common concerns are about potential crises, not current ones. That is what you would see in a society where people are still maintaining most or all of their jobs, standard of living and spending levels, but also know they are teetering on the edge, where one disruption to their income stream or costs will set off a lot of distress.

It’s not surprising, is it? No costs seem to be going down, especially necessities like health care and housing, and overall inflation has generally exceeded wage increases since last Summer, A lot of people have their economic futures dependent on gig economy jobs or similar hustles, with their retirements tied to the stock market instead of being full-time employees with set-aside pensions. And there is not much of a way to get off of the hamster wheel of month-to-month financial existence for Americans in a wide swath of income levels.

So when’s the point when the average American truly gives up and cuts back? Or when businesses decide they can’t keep paying these prices and cut back on orders or employees? And if/when the actual downturn starts, how awful is that going to be, and how far is it going to spread?

Despite the bad signs everywhere and increasing strains on pocketbooks, real bad stuff in the economy hasn’t happened yet. But safe to say that in April 2026, Americans don't think things are going in the right direction, and are worried about when things take a more tangible turn for the worse.