So what's not to like in the tax cut, rebate and K-12 deal?

After Governor Evers, Assembly Speaker Robbin' Vos and Senate GOP Leader Devin LeMahieu announced a deal to increase funding for special education, cut property taxes for K-12 schools, $870 million in one-time tax rebates, and tax exemptions for OT premiums and tips, it seemed like this was all set. The Governor called a special session, the Joint Finance Committee set a meeting for Tuesday, and the Assembly and Senate would pass it on Wednesday. Easy peasy!

And then I saw this press release from Dem Guv candidate, State Senator and Joint Finance member Kelda Roys. And she was NOT happy about the deal.

“Robin Vos has controlled Wisconsin like a puppeteer for a generation. In his final ‘screw you’ to working families, he’s trying to set the state’s projected surplus on fire – all in a desperate and irresponsible gambit to rescue Howard Marklein and other vulnerable GOP legislators from their coming defeat in November.

The callout of JFC co-chair Marklein is noteworthy, and Roys brought up the prospect of her and a possible incoming Dem majority in the Legislature being handcuffed by the tax cuts and spending that are part of this deal.

“For decades, whenever Democrats win power, we have to fix the fiscal messes and economic calamities Republican politicians created – remember 1992, 2008, and 2020? Hell, go back to the Great Depression….

“This latest deal is the height of fiscal irresponsibility. It spends a projected ‘surplus’ before it’s in the bank, even though that projection was estimated before Trump’s attack on Iran that disrupted our economy and caused gas prices to skyrocket. It gives a little one time money to public schools while permanently cementing unfairness in our tax structure. Worst of all, it blows nearly a billion dollars on an election year gimmick to send out rebates, squandering the ability of a new Democratic majority to make the long-overdue investments in our kids that they deserve.

“Vos knows it’s a win-win for him – maybe this election year bribe can save a few Republican seats from flipping, and if not, he creates a budgetary crisis that Democrats will have to fix next year. The surplus – if there will even be one – rightly belongs to our kids, not Vos and the departing leaders who want to destroy it on their way out the door.”

I don’t think Sen. Roys is off-base here. As mentioned before, this deal would certainly cut into how much would be carried over into the next budget.

LFB Director Bob Lang went on to say during the JFC meeting that the $532.5 million a year in increases in K-12 aids and $50 million in Technical College funding would continue into the next budget, as would the $12.0 million in additional funding for charter and voucher schools. We’d also see most of the $232.8 million a year in the deductions for tips and OT premiums continue for the next 2 years.

Combine that with the fact that we were already set to spend more than we take in for 2026-27, and Lang told the JFC that there need to be an additional $2.9 billion to come in and/or be cut from the 2027-29 budget to keep the budget in balance. Yes, some of that would be offset by the increased revenues that the Evers Administration reported for Fiscal Year 2026, so there wouldn't be as far to go to hit the target for Fiscal 2027. But the package would certainly reduce flexibility for 2027-29, and that would frustrate Dems should they win a trifecta.

I was still surprised to Senate Dem Leader Dianne Hesselbein echo Sen Roys' thoughts, and indicate that another item of contention is that Dems in the Legislature weren't even part of the discussions.

"From my perspective, there is no deal: Three men who will not be in elected office next year have come up with this proposal which Senate Dems will be reviewing," Senate Minority Leader Dianne Hesselbein.

"Any proposal must pass both houses of the legislature and no one knows if Republicans have the votes to pass it."

Given that outgoing GOP Senator Steve nASS has already said he will vote NO (because he hates giving any money to schools, and because there is a structural deficit left in the budget), and GOP Sen Chris Kapenga also said he would vote against the deal. Which means at least some of Hesselbein's Senate Dems are needed to pass the bill, as they were needed to pass the state budget last Summer.

So Dems could get some concessions or tank the whole thing. If they win the Governorship, Senate, and Assembly this Fall (and signs are definitely pointing that way), they understandably want more fiscal cushion to work with, whether it's to help the state stay afloat during another GOP president’s recession by that time, or to make for larger changes in what our state government pays for should there be a sizable surplus.

Then the Republicans' candidate for governor decided he couldn't avoid commenting on this deal, and threw another wrench into things.

Today, Congressman Tom Tiffany announced on the Benjamin Yount Show that he opposes Governor Evers’ so-called “relief deal,” calling it another Madison gimmick that fails to deliver lasting tax relief for Wisconsin taxpayers.

“Governor Evers is acting like the arsonist who wants praise for spraying a drop of water on the fire he started.”

“This backroom ‘relief deal’ does nothing to repeal Governor Evers’ 400-year property tax increase. It does nothing to stop Madison’s addiction to taxing and spending. And after Governor Evers’ PSC approved billions in utility rate hikes, a one-time $300 check barely scratches the surface.”

“When I am governor, the gimmicks stop and lasting relief begins. The 400-year property tax increase will be repealed. Madison’s addiction to overtaxing families will be dismantled. Surplus funds will be returned to the taxpayers where they belong, and Wisconsin workers will keep more of what they earn from the very beginning.”

In addition to the generally lame and off-base talking points, Tiffany also apparently dislikes a deal that lowers property taxes on schools and tech colleges and has tax rebates because... it adds funding to schools and doesn't give corporations and others even more tax cuts that drives the price tag higher?

You run on that, Tom.

Tiffany's blabbering is likely is part of the reason that Vos and LeMaheiu can't round up enough Republicans to get this package passed on its own, with the situation complicated because fair maps lessened the GOP's margins in the Legislature. Then add in the fact that Dems in the Legislature don't want to go along with this because they think they'll be in charge in the next session, and all of a sudden, this isn't the sure thing that Evers, Vos and LeMahieu figured it would be when they worked out their compromise.

Evers doesn’t seem too concerned about telling the GOPs in the Legislature "you had your chance, now you deal with the voters", and I think he genuinely wants to improve things for the typical Wisconsinite before he leaves office. I get it, and I see where this package is an improvement over where we stand today. It adds state funding to schools and lowers property taxes, which GOPs in the Legislature has been refusing to do, and basically pays for the property tax increases that many had to deal with last Winter with the rebate checks.

But that might not be enough for legislators and candidates that have other incentives and interests. Suppose we will find out soon. Looks like the Senate is finally on the floor as I write this, so maybe there's....something?