Oil and gas prices falling in the last month. But it doesn't add up as to why.

Good news from this week, everybody! There should be more oil coming onto the market from overseas soon.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies including Russia agreed on Sunday to further increase output targets by 188,000 barrels per day from August, on top of similar increases ​for ​June and July.

However, the increase has remained largely on paper ​because of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, ‌which closed the strait to tanker traffic for key OPEC producers, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq, capping their output….

Gulf oil exports in June jumped more than 3 million barrels from May to exceed 10 million barrels per day, although volume remained ‌40% below pre-war levels, data showed.

"We now expect global oil ​demand to contract by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2026, ​reflecting a sharper-than-expected downturn in Q2, when ​year-on-year declines could reach 4 million bpd based on preliminary data," ANZ said.

"However, we ‌expect demand losses to moderate in the second ​half of the year as ​supply improves and some deferred consumption returns," the bank added.

But that oil has yet to be refined and put on the gasoline market. So I am still confused as to why gas prices have been falling back much faster than they did when it spiked up to $5 a gallon in 2022.

But even though gas prices are $1 a gallon less than it was 4 years ago, according to the US Energy Information Administration, gasoline is less plentiful now in America than it was in 2022.

And sure, we’re pumping out more oil than we were at this time four years ago, but it’s not all that much more than what US oil field production was by early 2024, and is less than a million barrels a day more than what we were pumping pre-COVID

And worse is that the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is the lowest it has been in 43 years, with the SPR consistently going down by 6 to 7 million barrels a week for the last 4 months.

So with less supply of oil and gasoline around, why had pump prices and oil futures dropped so much by the 4th of July? It’s not based on actual supply and demand, at least not yet.

Something is off here, and it feels like some other shoe is going to drop sooner than later. Maybe this results in a massive glut coming onto the market and depressing prices, or as 24/7 Wall Street brings up, maybe oil gets taken off the market in order to re-fill the SPR, which would leave oil/gas higher as they otherwise would have been.

Then again, maybe that whole "more oil coming out of the Middle East" optimism of the last month gets reversed due to events.

WASHINGTON (AP) — US military says it's launching strikes on Iran following Tehran's attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. @apnews.com

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) July 7, 2026 at 4:33 PM

And the oil markets acted accordingly.

Oil prices jumped to their highest level since June 25 on Tuesday after the U.S. revoked a temporary sanctions waiver that had allowed the sale of Iranian oil on the global market.

The Trump administration took the action after unknown projectiles hit multiple tankers near the Strait of Hormuz.

In late afternoon trading, U.S. crude oil rose more than 5%, to more than $72 per barrel. International Brent crude oil also rose 5.3%, to more than $75 per barrel.

Here we go again?