Medicaid deficit drops in Wisconsin! But it'll be back up soon enough, and Sconnies will pay more.

This week marked the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2026, which allowed for another update in the projections for Wisconsin’s Medicaid budget. These reports come in every three months, and back on June 30, we were projected to need an additional $322.4 million in state tax dollars (known as GPR among budget folks) to pay all the bills in that program between then and June 30, 2027.

So do we need even more money for Medicaid now?

…Overall, the Department projects an improvement of $53.2 million compared to the GPR shortfall projected in June.

That brings the shortfall down to $269.2 million, and it’s the first time that deficit has shrunk in the 15 months of this budget cycle.

How did that happen? Because of a lack of spending on Medicaid services at schools.

Since the June update, we have taken additional measures that have had the net effect of reducing the projected biennial deficit. Federal revenue claimed for school medical services are governed by s.49.45(39), which requires the Department to pay 60% of the federal share for allowable charges for services to school districts. Consistent with Chapter 20 language for Medicaid appropriations, because the program remains in a projected deficit, the Department used the federal revenue amounts not allocated to school districts for FY 26 to offset GPR costs for Medicaid benefits…This is consistent with the statutory intent that federal revenue be used to offset the non-federal (GPR) share of Medicaid benefits. The Department plans to take the same approach in FY 27.

Retaining these revenues improved the projected deficit by $122.4 million GPR. This approach does not affect the amount of revenues that school districts receive for Medicaid services under current state law.

So this is a one-time deal, at least until next June. And if the backfill was over $122 million, why didn’t the deficit go down by that much?

In addition, this projection updates expenditure trends across multiple service lines for the remaining quarters of FY 27 based on additional expenditure and revenue data since June. These updates have the effect of increasing costs by $69.2 million GPR.

Which means the deficit will likely be going back up when we get the next report at the end of this year. These numbers also include assumptions of some people being cut off of Medicaid in the coming months due to red tape and other barriers, to help pay for the giveaways to the rich and corporate in Trump/GOP Tax Scam 2.0.

Let's also remember that the state's Medicaid and SNAP food assistance costs are scheduled to go up by another $2 billion in the next 2 years. That's mostly due to those higher costs of health care, but also is boosted because Tom Tiffany and the rest of the Republicans in DC pushed more of SNAP's costs onto state taxpayers.

Lastly, the extra budget costs do not include the burden many Wisconsinites will have to take on, as they wil be paying more out of pocket for health care costs and premiums next year. Filings indicate Obamacare premiums in Wisconsin will rise by 21% after Trump/GOP has messed with health care so much over the last 2 years. Upstream of that, recent estimates have both employer and employee health care premium costs rising by 8-10% for 2027, putting a burden on people in a time when they can least afford it.

Seems like a good time to remind people that David Crowley is one of many Democratic candidates at the state level who wants to add competition to the state's health care market, which could lower that $2 billion in additional costs that the state Department of Health Services would have to pay.

Open BadgerCare enrollment to any household that wants it, using federal Medicaid matching funds to cover portions of cost.

Use a sliding-scale premium based on income, with targeted subsidies for small businesses, farmers, gig workers, single parents, and college students.

Make BadgerCare comprehensive — medical, dental, and vision — focused on preventive, primary, and mental health care.

Ensure no one is out of network by supporting provider participation with incentives, especially for rural communities.

Seems to be a much better solution to Wisconsin's increasingly costly health care than what passes for Tom Tiffany's plan, which is.....tell people a little more on how much their health services are gonna cost?

Will that help any Wisconsinite pay for those services? OF COURSE NOT! Do you seriously think Tom Tiffany is going to help you afford health care as your costs keep going up? HAHAHAHAHA!

But Tiffany might make health care more "affordable" for the state's budget by cutting it even more, so that there'd be funds available for more giveaways to the 3 billionaires that have funded 90% of his campaign.

Vote accordingly, folks.