Plow and fix the roads before cutting taxes

As we get sucked into another polar vortex, it's natural to look into how this severe cold is affecting our services, especially our roads and the ability to get from place to place.

1. Among the many items this snowy and cold winter is causing is salt shortages. Just in the last week, we had media stories from Dane County communities, or the Town of Waukesha, and Stevens Point, where the City's supplies and snow-plow budget were almost gone before this recent extra blast.

[Stevens Point Public Works Director Scott] Schatschneider’s manpower budget, which has a total of $38,390 set aside for overtime, also is taking a beating. Road crews in December worked a combined 900 hours of overtime at a cost of $27,350. In the first two weeks of January, the same crews worked 172 hours of overtime at a cost of $5,540. He said all of the snow removal needs have taken away from other jobs that would typically get done in preparation for spring, such as sign maintenance, painting and preventative maintenance throughout the city.

“If we’re constantly plowing snow or picking up snow, we only have X amount of folks, so there’s other things that don’t get done, whatever that may be,” he said. “If that’s all you’re doing, it’s all your doing. It becomes so intense and so inclusive that it’s constantly on your brain.”

In the village of Plover, the public works road crew of 10 also has plowed and maintained streets around the clock this winter. Plover Administrator Dan Mahoney said his crew is as worn down as the city [of Stevens Point]’s.

Services like snow and ice removal and the filling of the potholes that will inevitably result are mostly locally funded, and having to pay above the budgeted amount would likely have to take away from other services in the rest of 2014.

2. There are ways that our state helps to pay for these bills, both through shared revenues (which have been limited in the age of Fitzwalkerstan), and through specific aids for transportation-related duties. As Page 29 of this LFB report shows, the most recent state budget added $2.5 million for maintenance on "state highway maintenance and traffic operations" for 2013-'14, and $50 million for 2014-'15.

With this in mind, one way you could deal with the upcoming issues in road repairs in 2014 is to add $25 million of these added funds to this year, and keep the (now higher) 2013-'14 funding level at that same level in 2014-'15. Not only would this move provide needed relief for this year, but it would lower the $1 billion structural deficit for the next budget in the Transportation Fund, since the next budget would start off $25 million lower.

3. And this isn't the only area that we could move funds around to take care of our increased transportation needs. For example, we could use move some of the projected $1 billion surplus in the General Fund to the Transportation Fund, and accelerate some of our projects for the next 18 months, such as the Zoo Interchange. This would lessen the expenses needed to pay for this construction in future budgets, and/or could be used to reduce the $900+ million in borrowing for highways projects that this budget has, by paying in cash instead.

Taking care of these road needs would seem to be a much better strategy than Walker's proposed tax cuts, which the Wisconsin Budget Project says will disproportionately benefit the rich. Instead, using the one-time General Fund surplus to take care of road maintenance would give more stability to local government finances and taxes, reduce the amount of debt that has to be paid off in later years, and would be more likely to lower unemployment by putting people to work right away on these accelerated projects.

But that would be a responsible, long-term strategy that won't lead to budget crises and selling off of services to corporations. So of course, this administration isn't going for it.

Frozen in Hoosierland

Been down in Indiana visiting friends, and seeing Bucky get a much-needed win at Purdue last night. Assuming I make it through the next polar vortex, I'll have thoughts on the tax plans and other interesting data as it comes along.

This week in Walker Admin hackery

No, I didn't watch a minute of the State-of-the-State last night. Instead I got my quota of swearing in by watching the Badgers fail to play defense for the 3rd straight game and lose by 13 to the friggin' Gophs.

But I can't help but laugh at this story. "Welder lauded by Scott Walker in speech is sex offender." CLASSY! The story refers to Christopher Barber, singled out by Gov Walker at last night's speech, and here's more from Dan Bice.

"These are the faces of an improving economy in our state," Walker said Wednesday of Barber and others. "Wisconsin is going back to work."

But there is a reason that Barber -- a resident of Two Rivers -- has had trouble finding steady work in the past.

Records show that he is a registered sex offender with two felonies and three drunken-driving offenses. Because of his checkered past, Barber has been in and out of jail and prison for much of the past decade, with his probation having been revoked at least twice.

But as usual, Bice buries the real story behind the veneer of being a dirt-digger. This is the real story, as revealed below.

Tom Evenson, a spokesman for Walker, said the administration had contacted employers in the state to see if they could recommend workers hired since Walker took office in 2011 who would be interested in being mentioned in the annual speech.....

Ann Stilp, head of corporate communications for Ariens, acknowledged Thursday that the Brillion-based company -- which makes snowblowers and riding mowers -- had suggested Barber.

"We recommended him based on his performance on the job since he has been employed with Ariens Company beginning December of 2012," Stilp said. "As part of recommending him for the speech, we did not know the details of his record."...

Ariens company officials have long been Walker backers.

The governor attended the company's 80th anniversary celebration in the fall, and he has received nearly 40 donations from Ariens employees, even though the total income has been a rather modest $4,625. In 2011, Walker appointed company CEO Dan Ariens to the Wisconsin Economic Development Corp. board, where he is now the vice chairman.

And Dan Ariens has another big role, as he's the Number 2 guy at the right-wing Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce, and sits on WMC's board. You don't think that had anything to do with using Mr. Barber as a human prop at Walker's speech, do you?

In fact, it's quite reminiscent of another Republican who used the blue-collar workers at a big-time GOP donor's business as the backdrop for an election event.



First class indeed. Then again, competence has never exactly been the biggest reason Walker's staffers have gotten hired. After all, this is the same crew that told the Gov, "It's David Koch on line 1!"



See, Bice is under orders from saying this, but I'm not. A prior felon (who's trying to do the right thing) being put on display at the State of the State address is not the big deal. What's significant is that this Administration operates on a pay-for-play basis, with a bunch of dimwits behind the scenes at the Capitol.

The ghosts of January surpluses past

Just in time for tonight's State of the State address, the Legislative Fiscal Bureau projected what would happen in the next state budget with the new revenue figures that were released last week. And at first glance, it looks like every fiscal issue in this state is taken care of due to these projections.

Table 3 indicates that revenues exceed net appropriations by $145 million. Thus, the structure of the general fund shows a balance of $145 million. The $145 million becomes $1,042 million when the $897 million opening balance is considered. However, Table 3 focuses only on the revenues and net appropriations for the 12-month period (July, 2014, through June, 2015)....

...for 2015-16, the general fund would have $1,111 million to meet commitments under current law, maintain the required statutory balance, and balance the budget for that year. In 2016-17, the balance would be increased by an additional $141 million.

$1.25 billion surplus? We're set! We can follow Governor Walker's plans to add on to the Koo-Koo tax cuts as much as we want, or we can pay for the $1 billion in Transportation needs we haven't funded in the next budget, and not have to sacrifice anything else! No worries!

Or, maybe not. I direct you to the New York Times, article dated January 31, 2001. The headline? "Surplus estimate hits $5.6 trillion."

Despite growing concern about an economic downturn that could put a crimp on tax revenues this year, the Congressional Budget Office informed members of Congress late today that it expects the surplus to swell to $5.610 trillion over the next decade, in line with estimates that have been circulating on Capitol Hill for weeks.

The new projection, which is to be released officially on Wednesday, is $1 trillion higher than the budget office's previous estimate, in July, and about $600 billion more than the Clinton administration's final projection, which was released last month....

Even before the budget office disclosed the new surplus figures, administration officials said that President Bush's plan for a $1.6 trillion tax cut over the next decade and his calls for more spending on the military, health care and education could all be accommodated comfortably without any risk to the government's fiscal health.

''We are seeing a government that is awash in surplus money, even with an economy that is softening from where it used to be,'' Ari Fleischer, the White House spokesman, said.

Sound familiar? And how did that work out for us? Oh yeah, not well. We had record deficits within 8 years of this article.

So what happened to this $5.6 trillion in surpluses? This CBO report released in 2012 lays it out.

In January 2001, CBO’s baseline projections showed a cumulative surplus of $5.6 trillion for the 2002–2011 period. The actual results have differed from those projections because of subsequent policy changes, economic developments that differed from CBO’s forecast, and other factors. As a result, the federal government ran deficits from 2002 through 2011. The cumulative deficit over the 10-year period amounted to $6.1 trillion—a swing of $11.7 trillion from the January 2001 projections.

Oops? And what caused this $11.7 trillion turnaround?

Changes from 2001 CBO predicted budget picture through 2011
Economic weakness/ recession- $3.34 trillion
War, other extra spending- $2.95 trillion
Bush tax cuts- $1.75 trillion
Interest on debt- $1.38 trillion
ARRA stimulus- $514 billion
Other mandatory spending increases- $477 billion
2010 budget deal/ Soc. Security tax cut- $391 billion
Medicare Part D- $272 billion
TARP- $189 billion
2008 stimulus measures- $148 billion
Other reasons- $112 billion

So one economic downturn or one stupid tax or spending decision can send those surpluses spiraling downward really fast. And given that this country has been in an expansion and stock market boom for nearly 5 years, history indicates that a recession will be coming some time in the next 3 1/2 years. So why are basing policy on assumptions that there won't be any type of blip on the state's or country's economy between now and the middle of 2017? This is what makes Walker's apparent plans to blow the projected surplus on tax cuts very foolish and dangerous. It's like the Walker folks have totally ignored the lessons of the 2000s and the Bush Administration.

Oh wait a minute, that's the answer! The Bush era doesn't exist in the right-wing bubble, so to them, Obama and Clinton caused both recessions and the millions of jobs lost from 2001-2003 and 2007-2009, and cutting taxes can magically cause economic growth and larger revenues! Sorry, I forgot.

Housing boom? Not in most Wisconsin places

The Wisconsin Realtors Association just had their December and year-end home sales reports, and we had a bit of a rebound in the home market for 2013.

2013 was a robust year for Wisconsin’s housing market, with both sales and prices increasing by solid margins, according to the year-end housing report released by the Wisconsin REALTORS® Association (WRA). Existing home sales were up 10.8 percent compared to 2012, and median prices increased 7.2 percent to $143,000 over that same time frame.

“Strong sales dominated 2013, which is remarkable given that this is compared to 2012, which was also a very good year for the housing market,” said Steve Lane, chairman of the WRA board of directors.According to Lane, existing home sales were up in every region of the state in 2013 relative to the previous year....

Lane noted housing sales were strong despite raising interest rates and prices. “Mortgage rates have increased a full percentage point since January, and median prices have grown consistently throughout the year,” Lane said. “Yet the entire state posted genuine gains in 2013, a trend we hope and believe will continue into the new year,” Lane said.

State newspapers ran with these numbers, trying to show that the state's economy was rolling in the right direction. However, what's not being said is that the home sales increase isn't evenly-distributed around the state.

In particular, Dane, St. Croix, Pierce Counties have had housing growth that outpaces the rest of the state. Those 3 counties have the 3 lowest unemployment rate in the state, and include the Madison area (Dane County) and the two Wisconsin counties closest to the Twin Cities (St. Croix and Pierce Counties). Both of those metro areas are noticeably more progressive and stronger economically than much of the rest of Wisconsin (gee, think that might attract potential homeowners?), and once you take out these three counties, the state no longer has double-digit growth for 2013.

Total home sales, 2013 vs. 2012
Dane County- 7,618 vs. 6,156 (+23.75%)
St. Croix Co.- 1,418 vs. 1,263 (+12.27%)
Pierce County- 486 vs. 435 (+11.72%)
Rest of Wisconsin- 60,081 vs. 54,918 (+9.40%)

The same pattern repeats when we look at home prices, and the Twin Cities-area counties in particular are having a boom. While Dane County's growth is less than the state as a whole, the prices of Dane County homes are significantly higher than those in the rest of the state, which drives up the median price statewide. This relationship is compounded when you realize Dane County is taking up an increasing amount of total sales in the state.

Median home sales price, 2013 vs. 2012
St. Croix Co.- $175,000 vs. $147,500 (+18.64%)
Pierce County- $150,000 vs. $135,000 (+11.11%)
Dane County- $210,746 vs. $200,000 (+5.37%)
Wisconsin Statewide- $143,500 vs. $133,900 (+7.17%)

By contrast, Northern and Northeastern Wisconsin are especially lagging other parts of the state. Northern Wisconsin had sales up 5.7% with prices up a paltry 1.7%, and Northeastern Wisconsin had home sales up 7.4% and prices up 4.2%. So the wire story about home sales and prices showing strong growth in Wisconsin might come as news to those in the 920 and 715 area codes, and is one of several economic indicators that show many of those areas being left behind in the Age of Fitzwalkerstan.

Lastly, the end of 2013 wasn't as strong as the start of it, as the Realtors' numbers showed that things may have slowed down in the 4th Quarter. Sales only increased to 15,115 to 15,013 compared to the 4th Quarter of 2012, the smallest year-over-year gain in 3 1/2 years, with half of the state's regions suffering declines. Maybe that's a one-quarter blip, but with interest rates creeping up and the weather being colder than normal, we could see things slow down at least for a little bit, and if that leads into a slight change in consumer sentiment, the cycle could reverse.

Bottom line- let's cool out before we officially call it a housing boom in Wisconsin, especially given the evidence that the gains in home sales and prices are heavily concentrated into a few, growing areas, with much of the rest of the state showing relatively small growth levels.

You want it raw? DO YA?

Put me in the camp as loving the Richard Sherman post-game interview with Erin Andrews after the Seahawks won yesterday's NFC Title game. Not only because Sherman can back all of his talk up as an All-Pro who won on the game-deciding play, but because it was strangely coherent, and 100% entertaining. Also watch how EA thinks it's going to be a generic athlete interview, and is thinking of her next question, and then realizes after about 5 seconds that it's not.



Look, we have these postgame interviews because we want to capture the emotion of the moment. Well, we got it! And now some people are complaining (and often on a racist tip) because Richard Sherman is saying what was on his mind? C'mon man! It beats lame clichés.

But that's not my favorite NFL playoffs postseason interview. That's still when Bart Scott talked to ESPN's Sal Paolantonio after the Jets upset the Patriots 3 years ago. In addition to it being an awesome "No one believed in us!" kind of rant, punctuated by Scott saying he "CAN'T WAIT!" for next week's AFC title game, watch how Sal just rolls with it when Scott gets started, and he keeps the interview entertaining and informative.



But both Bart Scott and Richard Sherman have a ways to go to top the man with the best mic presence- the late, great "Macho Man" Randy Savage. Here's him at his (coked-up?) finest, and watch how masterful Mean Gene Okerlund is at working his way through it. "But the beat goes on...."



Now if Richard Sherman was cutting a WWE promo, we wouldn't think a thing about what he said. Come to think of it, at 6'3" and put together, he's definitely got a future in the field after the NFL life ends.

Wisconsin's two-tier society on race- not MLK's dream

As we honor Dr. Martin Luther King today, it's also worth noting that his work in making for an improved and more equal society is far from done. And this is especially true here in Wisconsin.

The Center On Wisconsin Strategy (COWS) released a report last month that showed Wisconsin has significantly larger racial disparities in outcomes than much of the rest of the country.

Wisconsin’s racial inequality is generally the result of both the relatively good outcomes for Wisconsin’s white population and worse-than national outcomes for the African American population. The disparity is not inevitable. Indeed, thirty years ago the state generated much better economic outcomes for African Americans, a population group that did better in the state than the national average. Opportunities and outcomes have diverged however to the disturbing chasm that now confronts the state.

The vitality of our economy, the prosperity of our state, and the health and well-being of all our communities are threatened by the racial disparity that plagues Wisconsin. We hope that this litany of outcomes can contribute to a sense of context and urgency, and help promote attention to these issues.

And the racial disparities are striking, with COWS saying each of these disparities are among the 10 largest in the nation.

Wisconsin stats- White vs. African-American
Unemployment rate- 5.9% white, 19.3% African-American
Labor force participation rate- 68.7% white, 60.7% African-American
Median Household income- $53,499 white, $26,222 African-American
Poverty rate, all families- 6.1% white, 35.0% African-American
Poverty rate, children- 11.4% white, 50.3% African-American
People without health insurance- 7.4% white, 14.0% African-American

So when you have a state (and/or federal) government that chooses not to expand health insurance to the poor, or offer aid to the unemployed, or increase the quality and opportunity of education in poor communities, you are disproportionately hurting African-Americans in Wisconsin. I'm not going to say that this neglect is intentional, but I will say the fact that these bad things are more likely to hit non-whites makes a white majority group of legislators less likely to care about the issue.

A cycle of hopelessness can result as part of this two-tier society. I found this excellent blog post from an African-American who grew up in Milwaukee and later moved to be especially poignant. Here's a sample passage.

Teutonia and Locust is where I remember playing on the playground before bullets rang out. When I think of Milwaukee, I think of it as the physical place where my brothers failed to escape its destructible trajectory. It is in Milwaukee where I’ve experienced some of my scariest moments. I remember waking up in the middle of the night to a burning house. It was in Milwaukee where several men beat me as a young woman with bats and the hardiness of the concrete. It was right there in that city, where I slugged on public transportation to get minimum wage just to buy basic necessities. When I think of Milwaukee I think of the food stamps, the hours of waiting for healthcare, the roaches on the wall, the desperate competition for school clothes, the long lines at Aldi, the boys who got shot, the men that went to prison, the girls who became mothers, the babies who were left alone. It is there, in Milwaukee, where I learned the instant gratification of sex, drugs, and money. It is there where I learned the disillusion of basketball dreams and rapping careers.

It didn’t build my character, as people say poverty does, it built angst, dejection, and posttraumatic stress. It harbored in me, for years after going down south for college, a deep sense of inadequacy and eventually survivor’s guilt. I began to feel guilty that all of my greatest memories-falling in love, meeting lifelong friends, traveling the world, finding amazing mentors, becoming engulfed in life altering projects, getting married, graduating, starting a family-were not in Milwaukee. Even driving, learning to pay bills, becoming independent, discovering how to control my emotions, turning away from a culture of violence, and other basic life changes happened to me away from my family and surely outside of the small city I grew up in. I grew further and further away from the people whom I considered my family and visiting became much more of a chore and far less of a comfort.

Every time I returned to Milwaukee, I was forced to be 15 again. I was forced to remember people I had long forgotten about. I was forced to remember restaurants I could never afford to eat in. I was forced to remember neighbors who had long gone to prison. I was forced to remember the playground I was beat up at, the Goodwill store my mother shopped at, and the welfare line so many of us used to stand in. I was forced to have unnatural conversations with old friends I was disappointed in, who gained so much weight I barely recognized, who lived lives I was unacquainted with. I was forced to hear old stories that were glossed up as if they were amazing ones. I was forced to remember all the people we never got to see become whole again.

This should remind us that simple, one-size-fits-all solutions that might make sense to white people in the suburbs with a pathway to success might not have much relevance to minorities living in impoverished communities where hard work often does not go rewarded. It helps explain why Dr. King's focus took on more of an economic shade in his later years, because he recognized that a two-tier society goes well past Jim Crow laws limiting the right to vote and separating the races in lunch counters and movie theaters.

Salon.com writer (and former UW student) Joan Walsh mentions that the radical, economic-based MLK is a voice that we need to heed today more than ever. She quotes Dr. King's 1967 "Where Do We Go From Here?" speech as a call to recommit to expanding the opportunities that seem to be shrinking by the day for many Americans. It is scary how much Dr. King's words ring true in 2014.

Now, in order to answer the question, "Where do we go from here?" which is our theme, we must first honestly recognize where we are now. When the Constitution was written, a strange formula to determine taxes and representation declared that the Negro was sixty percent of a person. Today another curious formula seems to declare he is fifty percent of a person. Of the good things in life, the Negro has approximately one half those of whites. Of the bad things of life, he has twice those of whites. Thus, half of all Negroes live in substandard housing. And Negroes have half the income of whites. When we turn to the negative experiences of life, the Negro has a double share: There are twice as many unemployed; the rate of infant mortality among Negroes is double that of whites; and there are twice as many Negroes dying in Vietnam as whites in proportion to their size in the population.

In other spheres, the figures are equally alarming. In elementary schools, Negroes lag one to three years behind whites, and their segregated schools receive substantially less money per student than the white schools. One-twentieth as many Negroes as whites attend college. Of employed Negroes, seventy-five percent hold menial jobs. This is where we are.

Where do we go from here? First, we must massively assert our dignity and worth. We must stand up amid a system that still oppresses us and develop an unassailable and majestic sense of values. We must no longer be ashamed of being black. The job of arousing manhood within a people that have been taught for so many centuries that they are nobody is not easy.

And while we may have improved in some of these metrics in the last 47 years, it's still nowhere near where our country and our state needs to be in order to become that "More Perfect Union."

So on this MLK Day, it's worthy to realize that a two-tier society with severely unequal levels of opportunity flies in the face of what that amazing man would accept. And we have to keep trying to fix it, as doing so will improve the quality and vibrancy of life for all of us.