Wisconsinites moving West, and not always to warmth

Jud Lounsbury at Uppity Wisconsin observed an interesting number in the recently released figures from the U.S. Census Bureau on net migration. If you click on the report, you will see where people that move from one state to the other goes to, and what the trends are over the last several years. As Lounsbury points out, a sizable amount of Wisconsinites moved across the St. Croix River to Minnesota last year, home of a 4.1% unemployment rate and more progressive politics.

According to the latest U.S. Census state-to-state migration report, 9,352 more people moved out of Wisconsin than moved into Wisconsin and a large share of those leaving-- 1,972 to be exact-- are going to our next door neighbor, Minnesota.

Most people in Wisconsin would hate to suffer the embarassment of becoming a Gopher and this bucks a national trend of people moving from colder to warmer states. In other words, people in Wisconsin are so hard-up that they're willing to move to Minnesota!

In fact, Wisconsin and Minnesota trade people quite a bit, with Wisconsin losing more people to the Land of 10,000 Lakes more than any other state, including our neighbors to the south in Illinois. As these stats will show, Wisconsin loses people to the three less-populated Midwestern states, while gaining from the higher-population states (which makes some sense- there's more people that could potentially move in the bigger states than the smaller ones).

Wisconsin vs. neighboring states
Minnesota- 15,722 IN, 17,649 OUT (-1,927)
Iowa- 4,172 IN, 5,219 OUT (-1,047)
Indiana- 1,515 IN, 2,490 OUT (-975)
Michigan- 5,920 IN, 5,297 OUT (+693)
Ohio- 3,331 IN, 2,390 OUT (+941)
Illinois- 25,364 IN, 15,844 OUT (+9,520)

Of course, the Midwest has been losing in net migration for several years. Some of it due to struggles in the post-industrial economy, but also many of the losses have been to places with warmer climates (think retirees). One state in particular is losing more than others (Illinois), in levels far beyond what you would expect from the most populous state in the Midwest. Also interesting is that Minnesota's relatively high net migration is largely due to movement to the oil boom states of the Dakotas, which is something the other Midwestern states have generally not had.

Net migration for Midwest
Iowa- 77,470 OUT, 75,650 IN (-1,820)
Indiana- 135,472 OUT, 133,508 IN (-1,964)
Wisconsin – 110,198 OUT, 100,846 IN (-9,352)
Minnesota- 119,221 OUT, 104,825 IN (-14,396) (-8,096 to Dakotas)
Ohio- 201,515 OUT, 185,749 IN (-15,766)
Michigan- 166,996 OUT, 144,091 IN (-22,905)
Illinois- 304,644 OUT, 223,605 IN (-81,039)

Lastly, here's a look at other popular destinations for Wisconsinities to move to, or for people to come from when they move to Wisconsin. Not surprisingly, most are warm, with one notable exception.

Top 5 other states for Wisconsin-related migration
Florida- 4,423 IN, 7,321 OUT (-2,898)
Texas- 3,799 IN, 6,646 OUT (-2,647)
Arizona- 3,749 IN, 5,694 OUT (-1,945)
California- 5,149 IN, 4,704 OUT (+445)
Washington- 1,616 IN, 4,190 OUT (-2,574)

Climate may explain the first 4 on that list, but it does not explain why Minnesota and Washington should be gaining thousands of Wisconsinites, which leads back to Lounsbury's theory about higher quality of life and a stronger economy being reasons for certain states to attract talent from Wisconsin. And it's also worth mentioning that both states have higher minimum wages than Wisconsin, and were ahead of us in instituting progressive policies such as strong public transit and marriage equality.

Maybe we should look into bringing that mentality back to Wisconsin, and elect the governor that'll promote those items, instead of playing "divide and conquer" and denigrating the progressive policies and high quality of life that attracts talent. Makes sense, doesn't it?

Saturday reading- Dom Noth on our pathetic political media

I highly recommend this article from Dom Noth for today. It starts out asking why the most extreme voices are given legitimacy and air time over more reasoned statements (if any exist today for the GOP). And he rightfully points the finger at a media in America and especially Wisconsin in how the game is slanted in favor of these ridiculous GOP politicians and their statements. As an example, Noth points out the double-standard that comes up with the non-story regarding Mary Burke's jobs plan, and Scott Walker's actual absurd and dishonest statements.

When [Walker]said Wisconsin “doesn’t have a job problem, we have a work problem,” he demeaned a million hard working low-income workers or job hunters hoping for action from a governor who failed to deliver the 250,000 new jobs he promised. (There is no question those boners helped Burke win their first debate and will draw more desperate attacks by his side, probably reaching back in time to her tenure under Jim Doyle – but that’s the painful politics of today.)

Consider how minor and common was Burke’s error yet what hard play it got from the media – a paid consultant quoted himself verbatim with jobs ideas from other states he suggested for her jobs program, but he didn’t change a word. That got him promptly fired and Burke accused of plagiarism, though candidates borrow ideas from each other all the time – in this case good ones, in Walker’s case clones from ALEC or from policies that have failed here. Yet the reporters gave the Burke issue more space than what Walker said, forcing the voters to dig out the balance the media failed to deliver.

Across the county similar examples of disparate coverage abound. So my complaint is simple. Journalists should be a bulwark against this leap toward instant gratification and obviously false statements. But when Politifacts flails around more than Tilt-o-Whirl, when news interviewers fail to pin the big lie or follow up with the vital question, journalism becomes just another transient pastime in a world filled with escapist opportunities.

Reporters electronic and print should scoff at a political dodge but bury with invective sheer hypocrisy, which is far more damaging to America in the long run. That would satisfy both their “gotcha” eureka for ratings and the public’s need to separate a small sin from a major one.

But what if those reporters are paid off and are under orders not to tell it like it is? The best examples being Dan (I Follow Up on Any GOP Smear) Bice and the increasingly-absurd Wisconsin Politi-crap - both have made extra efforts in the last month to go out of their way to try to make Burke and Walker seem equally deceptive, when any honest assessment would expose Walker as a seamy liar that is far more dishonest than Burke.

For example, Walker last night went on and on about how he backed ShotSpotter- a tool used by Milwaukee Police to locate where gunfire may have come from, with strong results in identifying shooters and reducing the number of "shots fired" incidents. Except anyone with a modicum of memory would recall that Gov Walker actively worked to take money away from Milwaukee Police that was designated for SpotShotter, as this article from Urban Milwaukee's Bruce Murphy in 2013 points out.

But even as the police look to beef up its policing, the state legislature has been cutting back funding to the department, which originally went for police overtime and community policing. State funding was $750,000 in 2006 but began to decline in the years since.

In the most recent budget, the Legislature’s Joint Finance Committee included $445,500 for community policing in Milwaukee, which [Milwaukee Police Chief Ed] Flynn hoped to use for ShotSpotter. But Walker removed it from his executive budget and legislators declined to restore the money. Walker has suggested that every city will want a special program like Milwaukee’s.

But Flynn responds that Milwaukee is the state’s only city with such a high level of crime or so great a need for funding. He charged that the governor’s response is political, and caused by “the apparent desperate need of the (Walker) administration to exact political payback on Milwaukee. Because the mayor had the temerity to challenge for the governor’s job. What else could it be?”

The public pressure and lobbying from legislators on both sides finally allowed $175,000 of the $445,500 of requested ShotSpotter funding to be restored and Walker signed it after feeing the heat. For him to stand up there last night and take credit for his "investment" was disgusting, and insulting to anyone who had a clue about his attempts to remove that item from the budget.

So what did the four white guys from Milwaukee media (guys who you'd think would have a bit of background on this issue) do at last night's debate when Walker tried to take credit for SpotShotter funding? They nodded and did absolutely nothing, like the good tools they are.

Now more than ever, we gotta watch the watchmen.

As rural schools have it tougher, Walker cares even less

A couple more bits of information out in the last couple of days starkly illustrate how rural Wisconsin schools are being left behind in the Age of Fitzwalkerstan, and it's interesting to see these events and stories hit ahead of the election.

Earlier this week, the Department of Public Instruction gave their finalized aid amounts for this school year based on enrollment numbers (you can click for your district here). And while there were some minor modifications to what had been projected earlier this Fall, the tale is largely the same- most school districts in Northern and Western Wisconsin are looking at aid cuts for this year, and many above 10%. (I'll gladly take the updated version if someone has it, but it pretty much looks like this)



The pro-Walker Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel tried to spin this situation with a headline stating "52 percent of Wisconsin districts will get an aid increase." But many of these increases barely cover inflation, and the silver bullet of one-time Act 10 savings has already been used in almost every district. With many districts looking at lower aid amounts for at least the second or third time in the last four years, Wisconsin Public Radio looked into this issue in greater detail, describing the squeeze many of these smaller districts are feeling.

Schools in small, rural towns across Wisconsin are struggling. Enrollment is declining, poverty is rising, and transportation costs are considerable.

Jerry Fiene, the executive director of the Wisconsin Rural Schools Alliance, says that limited school funding has exacerbated the situation.

“Really for the last 20 years since the revenue limits went into effect, rural schools have been faced with significant challenges in being able to maintain the programs and offerings that they're providing for their students,” he said.

The current school funding formula places a lot of emphasis on enrollment and property values, meaning that when rural districts lose students, they also lose money. Fiene said that often the only good choice they have is to appeal directly to local taxpayers.

And that explains why there might be more than 80 referenda questions on the November ballot across the state related to school funding- in the Age of Fitzwalkerstan, these schools have no choice but to ask the voters to raise property taxes to merely keep operating as they are. And money that could offset those property tax increases for schools is instead being used to give tax cuts that have not created jobs, but instead merely led to a looming budget crisis due to exploding deficits.

And we found out today that Governor Walker won't take even the smallest step to help alleviate this situation. U.S. Rep. Mark Pocan sent out a press release describing how negligence in the Governor’s Office will cost many districts a better chance to fund and improve preschool programs.

Last week, Rep. Mark Pocan (WI-02) sent a letter, with Reps. Gwen Moore (WI-04) and Ron Kind (WI-03), urging Governor Walker to apply for a Preschool Development Expansion Grant. Unfortunately, Governor Scott Walker failed to submit an application before Wednesday’s deadline depriving Wisconsin of up to $60 million for preschool programs. Since taking office in 2010, Governor Walker has turned down or ignored federal grant opportunities to expand Medicaid for 87,000 Wisconsinites, to expand high speed internet service for schools, to build a high speed rail system between Madison and Milwaukee, and refused to increase the amount of heating assistance given to people in poverty resulting in cuts to Federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits.

“I’m very disappointed Scott Walker has put Tea Party politics ahead of doing his job as Governor,” Rep. Pocan said. “Playing political games with these federal grant opportunities, while neglecting our infrastructure, ignoring our most vulnerable citizens and running up a projected $1.9 billion deficit is inexcusable. Too many people from Wisconsin are being left behind as Walker prioritizes his higher ambitions.”

And a whole lot of those people live in small towns where the schools are being underfunded. In addition to the fiscal irresponsibility of not trying to get tens of millions of dollars in federal aid to help pay for these programs, improving pre-K education is a move which often pays strong dividends in improving the quality of education as those children get older. In many cases, strong public education and the sense of community those schools generate is all those places have going for it. We used to identify institutions like schools as a key part of the fabric of life in Wisconsin, and it sure seems to be in danger of slipping away under this crew.

In addition, the underfunding of rural schools and shifting of more and more taxpayer dollars into the failed voucher program shows how little the Walker Administration understands or even cares about people who don’t fund their campaigns. I sure hope the residents of the rural areas that are being screwed over by these regressive privatization and defunding policies keep this in mind when they go to the polls in 2 ½ weeks.

Your pre-debate primer on Wisconsin jobs stats

You can bet tonight's final debate in the Wisconsin governor's race will feature plenty of talk about the state's jobs stats, given that Scott Walker made job growth his central theme in 2010. And with yesterday's release of the final Wisconsin jobs report before the Nov. 4 election, we now have the complete data set of how Wisconsin has fared for jobs in the Age of Fitzwalkerstan. And you can bet Walker will mention the numbers in this September report, because if you look at it in isolation, the numbers are pretty good.

Place of residence data: A preliminary seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 5.5 percent in September, down from a revised 5.7 percent in August and from 6.6 percent in September 2013. The 5.5percent rate is the lowest since October 2008 and remains lower than the national unemployment rate of 5.9 percent.

Place of work data: A month-over-month increase in private-sector jobs by a statistically significant, 8,400 from August to September on a preliminary basis (seasonally adjusted). The year-over-year increase in private-sector jobs was also statistically significant, at 37,400 since September 2013. The year-over-year gain in private-sector jobs included the addition of 10,000 manufacturing jobs.

Wow, sounds like things are booming in Wisconsin, right? Meh, not so much when you look inside the numbers. First of all, the job gains in September are more of a reflection of lower layoffs than actual job growth, as Summer jobs ended and students went back to school.

Private sector job change, September 2014, Wisconsin
Seasonally-adjusted +8,400
Non-seasonally adjusted -24,900

It should be no surprise that job growth would look "strong" with lower-than-normal layoffs, because it's coming at a time when the country's new unemployment claims are at a 14-year low. In addition, the seasonally-adjusted gains were heavily concentrated, and not spread around numerous sectors of the state's economy.

Top three private sector job growth sectors, Wisconsin, 9/2014
Educational/health services- +5,800
Leisure/ Hospitality +1,100
Professional/Business Services +1,000
EVERYTHING ELSE +500

The drop in the unemployment rate is nice, from a (upwardly revised) 5.7% to 5.5%, but is no different than the U.S. drop from 6.1% to 5.9%, which also is the lowest since 2008. And as mentioned before, Wisconsin having an unemployment rate below the U.S. rate isn't any real accomplishment for Walker, as much of the heavy lifting had been done in Jim Doyle's final year in office, and the advantage we had over the rest of the nation was more than 3 times larger when Walker took office than it is today.

Unemployment rate, Wisconsin vs. U.S.
Jan 2010 Wis 9.2%, U.S. 9.7% (Wis rate -0.5%)
Jan 2011 Wis 7.7%, U.S. 9.1%(Wis rate -1.4%)
Jan 2012 Wis 7.0%, U.S. 8.2% (Wis rate -1.2%)
Jan 2013 Wis 6.9%, U.S. 7.9% (Wis rate -1.0%)
Jan 2014 Wis 6.2%, U.S. 6.6% (Wis rate -0.4%)
Sept 2014 Wis 5.5%, U.S. 5.9% (Wis rate -0.4%)

The job growth in September also more likely reflects the strong U.S. economy of recent months compared to anything being done locally. Wisconsin could have been expected to pick up 5,000 private sector jobs in September as their portion of the nation's September gain of 248,000 total jobs, and 236,000 in the private sector. The first 9 months of 2014 have had the strongest growth in private-sector jobs since the dot-com era of 1999, but Wisconsin isn't sharing in those gains, as even with this good September report, Wisconsin's private sector has only added 17,900 jobs in the first 9 months of the year. That puts us on pace to end up with less than 24,000 jobs gained for the year, which would be the worst job growth of Scott Walker's 4 years as governor.

This reality of the national economy running ahead of Wisconsin's stats was what led me to create the Walker Jobs Gap charts, and even with the strong September, Wisconsin's 8,400 gain was on the heels of a seasonally-adjusted loss of 3,800 private sector jobs in August, leaving the net gain at only 4,600 over the 2 months measured. That's well behind the national pace, and the final tally before the election shows the Walker Jobs Gap at over 70,000 jobs in the private sector, and over 62,000 overall.





So Scott Walker can try to take credit for Wisconsin's added jobs, but in fact, it's the policies of Walker and his WisGOP rubber-stamps in the Legislature that have held the state back. And we're falling further and further behind as the years of Walker's tenure have gone on. You can put your own spin on why that might be, but it doesn't change the fact that the numbers show that statement to be true.

A few thoughts on the budget release

Here is a snap analysis from the State of Wisconsin's Annual Fiscal Report (AFR), which came out yesterday afternoon. The surface number was slightly better than what we projected based on revenues (+$517 million for FY2014 vs. $481 million based solely on revenues), albeit well below the $724 million that the original budget projected when the second round of tax cuts were passed earlier in the year. And a look under the surface leaves the budget situation as bad as we feared.

First off, let's use the One Wisconsin Now whiteboard as a visual aid.



Now let's see what the AFR reported.

Gross Appropriations 15,043
Transfers 35
Compensation Reserves 58
Less Lapses -345
TOTAL 14,796

We ended up lapsing more money than expected, and also paid workers extra pay and bonuses $20 million less than projected (that's the Compensation Reserves). But also there's this note that you can find on Page 13 in the AFR.

TRANSFERS. Certain transfers were delayed until the second year of the biennium, resulting in a positive variance or transfers.

Whoa, what's that? Well, I looked at the Appendix to the AFR and went to the Transportation Fund information, and sure enough, it says there was only $35 million sent to the Transportation Fund from the General Fund. Now compare that to what was expected when the budget was passed last year.

Governor: Transfer $23,000,000 during the 2013-15 biennium from the general fund to the transportation fund. Although the bill does not specify the year in which the transfer must be made, the fund condition statement submitted with the budget indicates that the transfer would be made in 2013-14, thus having the effect of increasing transportation fund revenues by $23,000,000 in that year. This transfer is in addition to the current law, annual transfer of 0.25% of general fund taxes made from the general fund to the transportation fund, estimated at $35,127,000 in 2013-14 and $36,302,500 in 2014-15. During the 2011-13 biennium, a transfer of $125,000,000 was made from the general fund to the transportation fund ($22,500,000 in 2011-12 and $102,500,000 in 2012-13) and the 0.25% of general fund taxes provision was created, with the first transfer of $35,127,000 occurring in 2012-13.

Joint Finance/Legislature: Increase the transfer by $110,293,200, to provide a total transfer of $133,293,200 under this item. The fund condition statement for the substitute amendment anticipates that $25,750,000 would be transferred in 2013-14 and $107,543,200 would be transferred in 2014-15.

I bolded that part under the Governor's proposal, because they were SUPPOSED to transfer another $25.75 million to the Transportation Fund....but the AFR shows they didn't do that. Gov Walker's Administration held it back till this fiscal year in order to make 2014's budget balance look better before the election. Tricky move there, Governor! But it also means that we're sending nearly $170 million to the Transportation Fund in Fiscal Year 2015. So that drives up expenses even further in this fiscal year.

With that in mind, here's the progression of our surplus-into-deficit trend under this 2013-15 budget, and for the 2015-17 budget. This assumes the 3.5% revenue growth that Legislative Fiscal Bureau projected for this fiscal year.

FY 2013 end balance +$759 million
FY 2014 end balance +$517 million (-$242 million for year)
FY 2015 end balance -$356 million (-$873 million for year)
FY 2015 required reserves +$65 million
AMOUNT TO BE MADE UP BY JUNE 30 $421 million

2015-17 projected deficit- $1.316 BILLION

TOTAL DEFICITS TO BE MADE UP $1.737 BILLION

Same as it ever was. Still a mess.

A short take on the 47-47 Marquette poll

My quick reaction on the Marquette Law School Poll showing Mary Burke back to even among "likely voters"? Don't wanna say I told you so, but I told you so. All Charles Franklin had to do was to fix the sample into something resembling reality and Burke “caught up.”

Oct. 1 likely voter poll sample with leaners- GOP +4.6%
Oct. 1 result- Walker +5.8%

Oct. 15 likely voter poll sample with leaners- Dem +1.5%
Oct. 15 result- Tied

May I remind you that the turnout was Dem +1 for party ID in Wisconsin for the 2010 elections, which was a GOP wave year that Dems weren’t very fired up for. The Journal-Sentinel’s Craig Gilbert pointed this out in the wake of the poll's release.

note about Marq poll showing Walker-Burke tie. this sample more in line with long-term WIS pattern (slightly more Ds than Rs) than last poll

— Craig Gilbert (@WisVoter) October 15, 2014

Bottom line- Walker never had a 5-point lead in reality, it's stayed a close race- although I worry that the outlier poll blunted some Burke momentum among low-info people who like to say they're voting for the "winner." Now, that situation doesn;t exist, and it'll likely come down to a couple of events over the next 2 weeks and to turnout.

Which means if the turnout becomes closer to presidential levels of Dem +4-6 on November 4, Mary Burke will win this thing. Of course, if Scott Walker keeps coming up with word salad answers to things like Medicaid and saying Fantasyland things like the minimum wage doesn’t “serve a purpose”, she might not even need that type of turnout to become our next Governor.

But even if Walker keeps making an idiot out of himself, let’s run up the score to keep the “262 election clerk” factor from coming into play, and snag the Senate and a sizable part of Robbin' Vos majority in the Assembly, shall we?

I'll have more on the budget report later on (got my normal life to get back to).

Your pre-AFR budget report!

Tomorrow is a huge day for news in the governor's race. Yes, there's the Marquette Law Poll, and we'll see if Charles Franklin actually gets poll respondents that are something old other than old white right-wingers, which will allow Mary Burke to "catch up." But I'm going to be paying more attention to the state's Annual Fiscal Report (AFR), which also drops tomorrow and will show just where we stood at the end of the fiscal year in 2014.

To quickly review, we already know that Wisconsin will come up $281 million short on tax revenues for Fiscal Year 2013-14. But the AFR will also show all expenses for that fiscal year, as well as other revenues that won't be included in the tax revenue number. The One Wisconsin Now whiteboard gives a good rundown of where these numbers fit.



As you can see, even if all other numbers in the AFR are the same for FY 2014, we have some room to make up between now and June 30, 2015 just to keep the books balanced for this budget, let alone the billions of dollars in deficits looming for the next one.

On that subject, we got a hint of where we stand for the 2015 Fiscal Year with the release of the first three months of revenue numbers this afternoon. The fact that it was released a few days ahead of its usual schedule, and ahead of the AFR, should not go unnoticed- it smacks of a pre-emptive move by the Walker Administration to blunt what may be bad news tomorrow.

Also interesting is that the Walker Administration released a supplemental report that implied that revenues were running ahead of the $14.725 billion that were projected in the 2014-15 budget after tax cuts were put in place in May 2014. Call me a bit skeptical on this one. In addition to there being a very small amount of revenues in the first 3 months of the fiscal year vs. the other 9, claiming a $55 million surplus for three months behind a relatively arbitrary projection isn't really something that's reassuring for where this is going on the year-round numbers.

By the way, those late Summer 2014 revenue numbers don't measure up to the tax revenues from July 2013-Sept. 2013. The DOR revenue report shows total revenues were DOWN 2.3% against the same 3 months last year ($65.4 million). So why isn't that the headline, as it sounds like another revenue shortfall? Because for the rest of 2014, income tax collections can be expected to drop $55 million a month due to the changes in withholding (Item 14 on this list), which were designed to buy off Wisconsinites into voting for Walker. Wait, you didn't notice the $10 or $15 extra a month you've allegedly been getting? (Don't spend it all either, you'll be getting lower tax refunds as a result next Winter)

So I'll add $165 million into the totals ($55 million a month), and it makes tax revenues go up by just under $100 million compared to the same time period in 2013- about 3.57%. And what did the LFB project as our increase in tax revenues for 2015 after the tax cuts? 3.49% - pretty much in line.

So what's it mean? It means this revenue report hasn't changed a thing in terms of where our budget is. The lower tax base from 2014's shortfall means we're on track to fall short by about $281 million again in 2014-15, which mwould cause us to be looking at a projected deficit of $396 million....for now. But that number will be sure to change tomorrow with the AFR report, because we'll have the expenses and every other number to fit in to see where we ended FY 2014 with. Given the higher-than-expected increases in Medicaid enrollment and likely lower amounts of Indian gaming revenues, don't be surprised if that number to make up grows higher, along with the budget deficits for 2015-17.

Isn't it nice to have this news just in time for Friday's final debate? No wonder Scott Walker is throwing around goofy ideas like a "gas sales tax" and making Palin-like word salads on the subject of Medicaid expansion. I encourage you to read the AFR's numbers for yourself (well, as much as you can without going goofy) and ignore the spin, because you can bet there will be a lot of that from the right tomorrow.