A few thoughts on the budget release

Here is a snap analysis from the State of Wisconsin's Annual Fiscal Report (AFR), which came out yesterday afternoon. The surface number was slightly better than what we projected based on revenues (+$517 million for FY2014 vs. $481 million based solely on revenues), albeit well below the $724 million that the original budget projected when the second round of tax cuts were passed earlier in the year. And a look under the surface leaves the budget situation as bad as we feared.

First off, let's use the One Wisconsin Now whiteboard as a visual aid.



Now let's see what the AFR reported.

Gross Appropriations 15,043
Transfers 35
Compensation Reserves 58
Less Lapses -345
TOTAL 14,796

We ended up lapsing more money than expected, and also paid workers extra pay and bonuses $20 million less than projected (that's the Compensation Reserves). But also there's this note that you can find on Page 13 in the AFR.

TRANSFERS. Certain transfers were delayed until the second year of the biennium, resulting in a positive variance or transfers.

Whoa, what's that? Well, I looked at the Appendix to the AFR and went to the Transportation Fund information, and sure enough, it says there was only $35 million sent to the Transportation Fund from the General Fund. Now compare that to what was expected when the budget was passed last year.

Governor: Transfer $23,000,000 during the 2013-15 biennium from the general fund to the transportation fund. Although the bill does not specify the year in which the transfer must be made, the fund condition statement submitted with the budget indicates that the transfer would be made in 2013-14, thus having the effect of increasing transportation fund revenues by $23,000,000 in that year. This transfer is in addition to the current law, annual transfer of 0.25% of general fund taxes made from the general fund to the transportation fund, estimated at $35,127,000 in 2013-14 and $36,302,500 in 2014-15. During the 2011-13 biennium, a transfer of $125,000,000 was made from the general fund to the transportation fund ($22,500,000 in 2011-12 and $102,500,000 in 2012-13) and the 0.25% of general fund taxes provision was created, with the first transfer of $35,127,000 occurring in 2012-13.

Joint Finance/Legislature: Increase the transfer by $110,293,200, to provide a total transfer of $133,293,200 under this item. The fund condition statement for the substitute amendment anticipates that $25,750,000 would be transferred in 2013-14 and $107,543,200 would be transferred in 2014-15.

I bolded that part under the Governor's proposal, because they were SUPPOSED to transfer another $25.75 million to the Transportation Fund....but the AFR shows they didn't do that. Gov Walker's Administration held it back till this fiscal year in order to make 2014's budget balance look better before the election. Tricky move there, Governor! But it also means that we're sending nearly $170 million to the Transportation Fund in Fiscal Year 2015. So that drives up expenses even further in this fiscal year.

With that in mind, here's the progression of our surplus-into-deficit trend under this 2013-15 budget, and for the 2015-17 budget. This assumes the 3.5% revenue growth that Legislative Fiscal Bureau projected for this fiscal year.

FY 2013 end balance +$759 million
FY 2014 end balance +$517 million (-$242 million for year)
FY 2015 end balance -$356 million (-$873 million for year)
FY 2015 required reserves +$65 million
AMOUNT TO BE MADE UP BY JUNE 30 $421 million

2015-17 projected deficit- $1.316 BILLION

TOTAL DEFICITS TO BE MADE UP $1.737 BILLION

Same as it ever was. Still a mess.