Guv's race still even, as "likely voters" =/= ALL voters

Yes, the numbers that were part of the Marquette Law School poll that came out today in Wisconsin for the governor's race was shocking, and there is a reason why. Because it doesn't reflect reality. Marquette’s definition of a “likely voter” does not capture all of the voters that will go to the polls, which goes a long way toward explaining how a 46-45 Scott Walker lead in a poll of registered voters can turn into a 50-43 lead among “likely voters.”

Why is there such an (absurd) disparity? Because the Marquette Poll thinks no one who says they aren’t 100% certain to vote isn’t a “likely voter.” The amount of people who responded that they were “Very Likely” to vote are 8.9% of the registered voters, and those that said they were “50-50” about voting are 4.9% of the voters. It is reasonable to assume a majority of this 13.8% will end up voting in the November elections, especially given the amount of attention that these races are being given. But the media lazily is running with the Marquette “ certain likely voter” screen as a snapshot of what things look like, and it’s simply not true.

Those “very likely” and “50-50” voters lean heavily toward Mary Burke. You’ve already gotten a hint at this with the difference in Party ID from the LV to RV poll shifting 5.5 points toward the Dems. But look at where the “will probably vote” types end up.

Very likely/ 50-50 voters
Burke 52.4, Walker 32.0

And unlike the “ certain likely voter” group, this group isn’t so approving of Scott Walker.

Walker approve/ disapprove
Likely voters- Approve 52, Disapprove 46
“Very likely, 50-50” voters- Approve 37, Disapprove 51

That’s a 20-point swing to the negative among a group that will have most of its members voting, but were not captured in the “likely voter” poll. The same dynamic shows up in the favorable/unfavorable numbers, where the “unlikely but in reality quite likely” voter really prefers Burke over Walker.

Favorable vs. unfavorable, Very likely/ 50-50 voters
Walker 33.0%-51.0% (-18)
Burke 34.3%-31.0% (+3.3)

There is also a racial element to this, as there is a notable difference in the ethnic breakdown of the electorate in these two polls

Race of respondents, Marquette Poll Oct. 23-26
Likely voters- White 86.1%, Black 3.7%, Hisp 3.7%, Other/Misc 6.5%
Registered voters- White 83.1%, Black 5.0%, Hisp 4.3%, Other/Misc 7.6%

Percentage of racial group that are “Very Likely, 50-50 voters”
White- 8.0%
Black- 25.1%
Hisp 22.2%
Other/Misc 21.2%

Gee, you wonder why the Dems are hitting on “TURNOUT” as a big theme the last two weeks? It sure helps explain why President Obama was on the north side of Milwaukee yesterday urging Wisconsinites to get to the polls.

These discrepancies show up in another category in this poll that I’ve discussed before -the “Party ID with leaners” category, where the vast majority of Mary Burke’s “rally” from 5 points down to even in the last Marquette Poll was simply a function of not oversampling Republicans, and shifting the sample back toward a more typical party ID for a midterm. Well, the same dynamic holds here, where the overly white, more pro-Walker poll of “likely voters” has a heavily Republican slant.

Likely voters- R +2.7, Result: Walker +7
Registered voters- D +2.8, Result: Walker +1.4

And as mentioned in that same article, a typical midterm electorate is likely to be around D+2 or so. So take the registered number as the one more likely to be reality.

In addition, a wonky figure showed up within one of the ethnic groups in the poll that I don’t trust. It’s related to the Hispanic respondents. This goes back to a point I made in light of a fivethirtyeight.com article 3 weeks ago, where Hispanic respondents in polls can be disproportionately Republican (based on who will pick up and answer and English-speaking poll), and not fit the reality of the Hispanic electorate.

All Hispanic voters- Walker 48-39
Hispanic voters who already voted- Burke 78-15
Hispanic voters favor Voter ID 53-37.

May I remind you that Hispanic voters went 66-32 for Obama in Wisconsin in 2012, so unless there’s been a 40+ point swing to the GOP in the last 2 years in the Hispanic community, and that they’re now agreeing with the xenophobic backers of voter ID who want to “catch the illegals,” I’m going to guess that these figures a little off as well.

Bottom line, there’s really no change with this poll, and do not buy into the lazy media memes that will try to claim “Walker takes a lead” in order to discourage Dem hopes and Dem turnout. Now maybe Walker leads by 1 or so in aggregate in the polls, but as I’ve brought up, Dems have outperformed the polls in November by 3 points in each of the last 2 November elections in Wisconsin. Which means with a good Dem turnout, Mary Burke and Susan Happ (who’s tied in the RV polls) will likely be victorious on Tuesday night.

SO MAKE IT F’ING HAPPEN!