2017 April turnout- Dane County rules while much of Wisconsin drools

Wanted to give the post-election follow-up to Monday's analysis on turnout and results for April's State Superintendent race. I'm going off of Wisconsin Public Radio's Wisconsinvote site, and this one picture gives you an idea on how thorough Tony Evers' win was (Evers won all the counties in blue) - and why I don't spend a dime in the suburban 262.



Now that's an ass-kicking. And maybe the non-competitive nature of the Superintendent race combined with an unchallenged Supreme Court race helped to explain why turnout fell short of the 796,511 that voted in the 2013 Superintendent race. Wisconsinvote only has the 2-party vote share, but it barely exceeds 707,000, a drop of more than 11% (although I'll note that Evers still exceeded his 2013 vote total, getting nearly 495,000 in 2017 compared to just over 487,000 in 2013).

What's intriguing is that while the dropoff in voting was widespread, one major exception to that rule was in Dane County, which not only exceeded its 2013 vote total by nearly 14%, but also cast more votes than the significantly more-populous Milwaukee County (!). The Republican strongholds of Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington Counties also had serious drop-offs (tired of all the winning? The sheep didn't get their orders from their AM radio masters?), but Brown County also saw higher turnout, likely due to huge school referenda in the Green Bay and Howard-Suamico districts.

I'll give the caveat that this is only the 2-party vote on Election Night, and doesn't count write-ins or other minor adjustments that'll happen with the final totals.

Top voter turnouts, April 2017 (comparison to 2013)
Dane County 96,933 (+11,791)
Non-City Mke Co. 52,133(-1,970)
Waukesha Co. 49,057 (-20,390)
City of Milwaukee 42,624 (-4,985)
Brown County 31,873 (+2,549)
Racine County 20,957 (-5,881)
Outagamie Co. 18,551 (-4,608)
Winnebago Co. 17,236 (-1,441)

In fact, Dane County cast 13.7% of all the votes in Tuesday's election, well above their typical November level of 10-11%, and Evers won by nearly 72,400 in Dane County alone, so they were definitely fired up for things here in the Mad City and the surrounding areas. Evers also won many Trump counties with 60-70% of the vote, including big population places like Kenosha, Racine, Marathon, Outagamie and Brown Counties.

Now the question for Dems is if the big win by Evers is a harbinger of bigger things in 2018, or if it's a one-time blowout due to a combination of a horrid opponent in Holtz and low turnout. It certainly seems that Governor Walker had an idea that Evers was going to win big and that voters want to support people who back public schools, which is why he's taking all of these taxpayer-funded campaign trips trying to talk up his one-time boost in K-12 aids (what, you think it's because the guy actually cares about educational outcomes? HAH!). It also makes me wonder if Evers' resounding win and the general disinterest in the pro-voucher Holtz might make the GOP Legislature hesitate to cut into Walker's gimmicky per-pupil increase when they try to figure out the budget in the next few months. Or if they'll blow it off, hopefully to their own peril.

Fed might take the punch bowl? Greedheads run to the exits!

I noticed the stock market had jumped on a very good ADP payrolls report, with the DOW staying up around 150 points most of the day. Then I returned to other work duties in the afternoon, flipped by the stock market numbers....and saw that the market closed DOWN on the day, and plunged 200 points after 1pm.

So what happened? The Federal Reserve indicated they might take their foot off the gas, and the greedheads panicked, because they feared their cocaine party might be ending.

Most Federal Reserve officials said they backed a policy change that would begin shrinking the central bank’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet later this year, as they reiterated their outlook for gradual interest-rate increases.

“Most participants anticipated that gradual increases in the federal funds rate would continue and judged that a change to the committee’s reinvestment policy would likely be appropriate later this year,” according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s March 14-15 meeting released Wednesday in Washington.

“Many participants emphasized that reducing the size of the balance sheet should be conducted in a passive and predictable manner,” the minutes showed.

Huh, you mean the "Trump Rally" wasn't based on actual economic growth, but instead was all about gambling on future policy and easy money? Imagine that!

That's not a good sign, when even the hint of interest rates going up sends people to the exits. And oil had also been on the rise until today, which is another sign that inflation may stay at its elevated level in the near future. Worth keeping an eye on as we head toward summer, because it seems like we're heading toward a squeeze play where one side has higher wages and the Fed tightening money, and the other side would be a slower economy that makes workers continue to fall behind.

Failed school referenda may make for a tough call for WisGOPs

In addition to the blowout in the School Superintendent’s race, there were a number of other items involving K-12 education on yesterday’s ballot. This included numerous school referenda, which has become a regular occurrence as tight revenue limits from Scott Walker and the WisGOP Legislature have prevented many Wisconsin districts from adequately keep things running, especially now that the “tools” of Act 10 have already been used.

As the Department of Public Instruction notes, a majority of yesterday’s 71 referenda questions passed, but 25 of them didn’t, and it wasn’t just questions related to big-money building projects. Here is the list of school districts that turned down referenda that asked taxpayers to increase the revenue caps for that district (i.e. money that goes to everyday costs), and the amount of increased revenue that it was asking to have available for the 2017-18 school year. It’s a mix of small rural districts, medium-size small city districts and suburban ones.

Bonduel $1,000,000
Cameron $675,000
Hayward $2,000,000
Howard-Suamico $4,000,000
Menomonee Falls $1,100,000
Mosinee $159,836
Necedah $800,000
Osceola $950,000
Southern Door $936,000
West Allis-West Milwaukee $2,500,000
Yorkville $490,000

Remember that Scott Walker’s 2017-19 budget does nothing to change the revenue limits for public K-12 schools, which will limit the effectiveness of those higher per-pupil aids that Walker’s flying around the state (at taxpayer expense) to promote. And because those figures are per-pupil aids instead of general aids, if these districts have stagnant or declining enrollment next year and/or the year after that, they will not the same amount of help that other, better-funded districts in the state will.

Also interesting is that only one of these districts (Necedah) currently receive assistance under the state’s sparsity aid program, and only Bonduel would be added to that list under the Governor’s proposed expansion of that program in the 2017-19. Without those new sources of money, these districts may have little recourse but to plan cuts for next year following yesterday’s vote, even if we assume Walker’s pre-election gimmick budget were to pass.

One other item to make a note of- Republicans represent every one of these 11 districts, in whole or in part. Think that might put a little pressure on the legislators from those areas to fund the schools to avoid seeing damaging cuts hit for the 2017-18 school year? Combine that reality with the overwhelming show of support for State Superintendent Tony Evers and his pro-public schools stances in that same election, where Evers won many of these GOP legislators’ counties by margins between 20 and 50%, and it’s going to be difficult for many of these legislators to allow cuts to happen by lowering the amount of proposed aids going to K-12 schools.

And with Assembly Speaker Robbin’ Vos bickering with Senate Leader Scott Fitzgerald and Governor Walker on road funding (while Vos is also arguing with the Road Builders and Milwaukee business oligarchs on where to put any extra road funding), the relatively large number of rejected referenda in yesterday’s elections may have thrown another monkey wrench into things. The already-fractured GOP Caucus that is trying to make sense of a Walker budget that would lead to a $1 billion deficit in 2 years, and now many of their constituents are going to start asking them to do something so Johnny can play football and have less than 35 kids in his classroom next Fall.

Huh, it’s almost like these guys might need more money to take care of everything that they want to do. But that would involve actually levying taxes on potential campaign contributors, and we can’t have that, can we WisGOP?

Another WEDC fail, as Appleton's JanSport lays off hundreds

Bad news in the Fox Valley this morning, as a large Appleton area employer announced major layoffs.

The JanSport collegiate apparel operations in Appleton will be closing, as part of a transaction by its parent, VF Corporation - putting 380 people out of work….

"Because of these fluctuations in our business, we have initiated some actions across parts of our operations at our VF Outdoor facility in Appleton. These actions include ceasing our apparel decoration operations at the VF Outdoor facility in Appleton later this year. This also includes our JanSport Collegiate Licensed Apparel business, which will be winding down business in the coming months," said Vanessa McCutchen, spokesperson for VF Corp.

"We have no plans to close our VF Outdoor facility in Appleton. It will remain open and will continue to service VF’s Outdoor brands with accounting, finance, credit and customer service functions. While we regret that these actions will impact associates and their families, we are confident that this is the right strategic direction for VF and will enable the company to refocus the composition of our portfolio for future growth," she said in an email to Fox 11.

The Greenville facility will continue to employ 370 people, she said. The facility will remain open and will continue to service VF’s Outdoor brands with accounting, finance, credit and customer service functions.

It’s sad and infuriating enough to see hundreds of Wisconsinites lose their jobs. But even worse is that this comes 30 months after the same company was drawing headlines for allegedly creating jobs in the place. And conveniently, that alleged expansion was announced 5 weeks before the November 2014 Governor’s election.

The project, which is expected to be completed in December, will add up to 70 new jobs and 19,000 square feet to the Greenville location, N850 County Road CB. The facility currently employs more than 700 people.

“Our business is growing,” Randy Schilt, operations chief financial officer and controller for VF Outdoor, said in a statement. “We are pleased to be investing in the Fox Cities, which has great people with the talent and skills necessary to support the business needs for each of our eight brands. We provide sales, customer service, product design, graphics support and apparel decoration, in addition to financial services for VF’s outerwear, sportswear and footwear brands.”

The Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation has authorized VF Outdoor to receive up to $880,500 in state tax credits. The company is eligible for $310,000 in job creation credits over the next three years. The actual amount of credits will be contingent upon the number of jobs created.

WEDC also authorized up to $570,500 in job retention tax credits over five years.

“A great economy is built on commitments made by companies such as VF Outdoor — a company that has decided to stay in Wisconsin and grow here,” Gov. Scott Walker said in a statement. “As an industry leader with many location options to select from for its expansion, we are delighted they chose Wisconsin.

Funny how often these WEDC job announcements/tax giveaways don’t end up materializing into long-lasting jobs, isn’t it? That “jobs retained” credit is an especially nice touch, and given that VF is still going to operate the Greenville facility, does that make this a “successful” WEDC handout?



Appleton State Rep. Amanda Stuck also noted the problem of recipients of WEDC handouts laying people off later on (again), and asked how Wisconsinites could get their money back.

“I am however deeply concerned that this facility is closing and that this company received state tax credits to help incentivize their expansion and job retention. On May 2nd, 2016 the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation (WEDC) certified VF Outdoor, Inc. for $880,500 in tax credits to help create 76 new jobs and retain a further 113 positions between April 2014 and April 2017. (Jake asks- What month is it? Oh, April 2017) I hope that WEDC will use every tool available to them to recoup the costs of these tax credits from VF Outdoor as they shutter operations in our community.”

“It is disappointing that we have yet another example where a company in Wisconsin received taxpayer support through loans, grants, or tax credits only to pick up their operations and lay off hundreds of hardworking Wisconsinites. We need to do better to help keep jobs in Wisconsin, to help Wisconsin-based companies expand, and to make sure that those receiving state aid are committed to our state and our communities.”

Or maybe stop having unelected political hacks at WEDC from making these decisions, especially 1 months before an election where the promises of job creation get headlines, but when those promises are broken, we hear nary a peep from those same elected officials.

And taxpayers are going to get stuck with the bill twice- first from the “jobs tax credit” write-offs WF was able to take over the last 3 years, and now with the lost incomes and unemployment payments for the 380 people who are now without work.



Had enough of this "promise big and underdeliver" routine, especially all you 920ers who voted for Trump and Walker?

Turnout and other April pre-election numbers

A few figures that I found from the last time Tony Evers ran for State Superintendent in April 2013, courtesy of the Wisconsin Elections Commission.

Total votes 796,511
Total Counties won by Evers- 69 of 72
Margin of victory for Evers- 178,080 (+22.5%)

The Wisconsin Elections Commission is projecting 13-18% turnout tomorrow. If we reach 18%, that would be just over 800,000 votes, so 2013's totals seem to be a good baseline to measure against. With that in mind, let's see where the top turnout counties were for that 2013 election.

Top voting counties, 2013
Dane 10.69%
Waukesha 8.71%
Non-City Milwaukee Co. 6.79%
City of Milwaukee 5.98%
Brown 3.68%
Racine 3.37%
Washington 2.93%
Outagamie 2.91%

Obviously, local elections will be a factor in which places turn out, both for elected offices, and for the 71 school referenda questions that are going to be on the ballot. But one place that seems to be ready to turn out is the City of Madison, as their City Clerk reports as much early voting as they saw last April, which a much bigger election than we had in 2013.

The City of Madison issued a total of 5,325 ballots to in-person absentee voters for the April 4 Spring Election. That total is just 225 ballots less than the number of absentee ballots cast in person for the 2016 Presidential Primary.

The City Clerk’s Office has issued 8,930 absentee ballots for this election, including absentee ballots sent by mail and absentee ballots cast at absentee voting locations throughout the city. There are 1,652 absentee ballots that have yet to be returned to be counted. Election Day is the deadline for the Clerk’s Office to receive absentee ballots.

I'm not going to count on Dane County registering 233,000 votes tomorrow like they had in April 2016, but even getting half that amount would be an improvement of more than 30,000 compared to 2013. And they won't be voting for the Betsy DeVos wanna-be that's opposing Evers, that's for sure.

So yes, the turnout signs seem to be good, but I thought that from the strong early voting totals in blue areas last November, and you saw how THAT turned out. So let's make sure we all get out there and vote for Evers in big numbers, and send the sign that this privatization garbage and disrespect for our schools won't be tolerated any more.

Not just the budget- other tax bills starting to add up

Last week, the Wisconsin Legislature sent a couple of bills to state committees that seem rather small, but still have some tax effects that could endanger other items in the state budget. And both bills are a good example of when a small move that might have good intentions can lead to bigger effects down the line.

The first involves changing Wisconsin tax law to line up with what the Feds allow for write-offs. The Wisconsin Department of Revenue estimates and describes the change this way.

Under current federal law, individuals aged 70 1/2 years or older may exclude from taxable income up to $100,000 distributed from an individual retirement account (IRA) directly to a qualified charitable organization. For Wisconsin income tax purposes, the distribution amount must be included in income, but individuals may claim the itemized deduction credit for the charitable contribution.

Beginning in tax year 2017, this bill adopts federal law as it relates to charitable distributions from an IRA. The provision is expected to reduce revenue by $4.2 million in fiscal year 2017, $4.8 million in fiscal year 2018, $5.2 million in fiscal year 2019, and similar amounts annually thereafter. If the provision becomes law after or near the end of fiscal year 2017, the fiscal effect attributed to fiscal year 2017 will instead fall under fiscal year 2018.

While it may be a nice thing for consistency’s sake to “federalize” this provision, it also means that if this bill were to pass, the $14.2 million in reduced taxes that would result would make Gov Scott Walker’s budget impossible to pass. This is because Walker’s budget only has $6.7 million in “wiggle room” available by the end of Fiscal Year 2019.

There’s also no doubt that this tax cut would almost exclusively benefit rich old people. After all, who has $100,000 to give away to a charity? Certainly not anyone who’s relying on their Social Security check to make ends meet.

And let’s go further on that- what defines a “charity”? I went down the rabbit hole of IRS regulations, and from what I can tell the Wisconsin bill only deals with donations that fall under code number 170(b)(1)(A), instead of the wider 509(a)(2) exemptions.

The kinds of organizations that usually qualify under the IRC 170(b)(1)(A)(vi) support test are museums, libraries, community centers and community funds such as the United Givers organizations.

When the Tax Reform Act of 1969 was enacted, an additional category of publicly supported organizations was added to the Code. (IRC 170(b)(1)(A)(vi) had previously been enacted, effective all years beginning after December 31, 1963.) The new category of publicly supported organizations, described in IRC 509(a)(2), was intended to include organizations that receive a major part of their support from the performance of an exempt function. Thus, in computing an IRC 509(a)(2) organization's total support the same formula (other than the exclusions) used in computing an IRC 170(b)(1)(A)(vi) organization's total support is used, except however gross receipts from admissions, sales of merchandise, performance of services, and furnishing facilities in any activity (that is not an unrelated trade or business) are included. The items excluded from total support, in the case of IRC 509(a)(2) organizations, do not include amounts received from the exercise or performance by the organization of its charitable, educational or other IRC 501(c)(3) purpose. Thus, payments from a governmental unit for performing its exempt function are included in total support. The unusual grant rules remain the same.

So my fears about these donations going to some fake Koch/Bradley “educational” organization don’t seem to apply in this bill, which is a good thing. But given who’s in charge in Congress and the Supreme Court in the post- Citizens United era, that definition could be widened pretty fast.

And there’s another targeted sales tax exemption that’s been introduced in the Legislature that would give an extra benefit to those that would do work on higher education buildings in the state. As the Legislative Reference Bureau notes,

Current law provides that the sale of tangible personal property that becomes a component of a facility in this state that is owned by a county, municipality, school district, or nonprofit organization is exempt from the sales tax and the use tax. The exemption applies to tangible personal property purchased by a construction contractor who transfers the property to the county, municipality, school district, or nonprofit organization as part of constructing the facility. This bill expands the exemption to apply to tangible personal property transferred to a technical college district, to any institution or campus in the University of Wisconsin System, or to the University of Wisconsin-Extension.

The DOR estimated that adding higher education to this list of sales tax-exempt projects would reduce the state’s intake by around $2.5 million a year. Although it should be added that if contractors reduce their projected costs on projects as a result of these write-offs, then taxpayers would get some of that tax cut back.

Interestingly, the expansion of the sales tax exemption to local government buildings just took effect starting last year, State officials said this move would have a price tag of $6.4 million a year to the state, although the memo noted that local governments would would see a projected reduction of $4.1 million for construction costs. So now this new bill is the logical 2nd act to that measure, which allows more places to be in on the tax cut.

Again, this sounds nice and consistent on the surface, but because we have such a tight budget, there would barely be room for this $2.5 million sales tax cut to fit under Governor Walker’s budget if that bill was passed and took effect in 2017.

And that’s the point I want to make here. Even outside of the state budget, there are other tax changes and actions that are being proposed that would make the 2017-19 budget even more impossible to balance. It also might be a nice tipoff for what we could see in those notorious last-minute “999” measures where Joint Finance members throw in all sorts of hidden goodies that often end up hampering the state’s finances for years to come.

WisGOPs growing different Bubbles on DOT funding

As Wisconsin's Joint Finance Committee held its budget hearings last week and potholes continue to sprout up throughout the state as the rains keep coming, the subject of how to handle the state's deficit-ridden Transportation Fund re-emerged into a fight between the top Republicans in the state.

Governor Scott Walker's budget does not have any increases to the state's gas tax or registration fees, but also relies on delays in road projects and somehow plans to keep other projects on track while spending less money on them. This has angered Assembly Speaker Robbin' Vos, who wants to keep promises to the Road Builder lobby increase Transportation Fund revenues to remove some of the backlog in projects, and has floated a scheme to cut General Fund revenues to make up the difference (no, I don't get how that math adds up).

But Vos's stance isn't flying with Senate GOP Leader Scott Fitzgerald and Governor Walker, who want to stay on the good side of DC lobbyist Grover Norquist to help their chances of higher office at a later time.

Vos and other GOP leaders in the Assembly, and some Republican senators, have been outspoken in saying the Legislature and Walker should be open to higher taxes and vehicle fees to keep road projects on track and reduce the $500 million in borrowing the governor is proposing.

"I'm not going to let the threat of a veto stop the discussion from even happening when our caucus actually has a position, and the Senate is still muddled with their own ideas," Vos said.

But Fitzgerald all but slammed the door on the possibility of the Senate overriding a veto on Thursday.

"We're not going to override Governor Walker on a veto," Fitzgerald told reporters. "It's just not part of the dynamic that exists for a Republican-controlled Legislature to override Governor Walker. It's just not going to happen. Work with him up front, try and get some concessions or changes that make sense for us, and that's where we need to negotiate from."

Walker initially said he would be open to gas tax and fee increases to pay for roads if there were corresponding cuts elsewhere in the budget. But he shifted in his position in February, saying he outright opposed any gas tax hike. And on Wednesday night, while Republicans on the budget-writing committee were voicing support for higher taxes, he tweeted a veto threat if they did that.

And one of the solutions Fitzgerald floated on Friday would mess things up for the rest of the budget- Fitz wants to borrow money from the General Fund to pay for DOT needs. This would add to the state's already record-high debt, and would have the extra problem of adding to the $1 billion structural deficit in the General Fund for the next budget. But the fact that Fitzgerald would even think about such an idiotic plan shows how boxed in and confused the WisGOPs are, and how they are incapable of dealing with real-world problems.



None of these GOP poses seem likely to solve the real problems of deteriorating roads, nor of the lack of available funding in either the General or Transportation funds. And barring a bailout from DC in the form of a major increase in infrastructure spending from the Trump Administration (good luck getting that through THIS Congress, or any budget bill for that matter), it looks like this Transportation funding dispute is going to be a central item in the budget talks for the next 3 months...or much longer if Walker continues to care more about DC lobbyists and stink tankers over what happens on Wisconsin's roads.