Inflation continues to be moderate, and real wages rise. And dont panic about gas prices.

On a day when the President visits our state to talk up the Inflation Reduction Act and efforts to be more environmentally sustainable, it seems to be a good time to check in on both those fronts, doesn't it?

We saw last week that inflation stayed on a lower track in July 2023, and is significantly below the peaks of June 2022.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported [Thursday]. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

That makes for 4 out of the last 5 months where CPI has increased by 0.2% or less.

But somehow, far too many media members decided to use that 12-month figure to imply that inflation had gone up .

Inflation in the U.S. rose in July after 12 months of declines, boosted by costlier housing. But so-called core inflation measures remained mild. https://t.co/T07CfxmANo

— The Associated Press (@AP) August 10, 2023

That’s because of the 0.0% figure in July 2022, which reflected gas prices falling back to earth after peaking the month before. So even if inflation speeds up to a 0.3% rate for each of the next 3 months, will the AP and others give us headlines that 12-month inflation is falling?

And as usual, the lagging indicator of shelter was the reason for most of the (small) increase in prices.

The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over 90 percent of the increase, with the index for motor vehicle insurance also contributing. The food index increased 0.2 percent in July after increasing 0.1 percent the previous month. The index for food at home increased 0.3 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.2 percent in July. The energy index rose 0.1 percent in July as the major energy component indexes were mixed.

The “Core rate” (something that inflation hawks have been trying to hang onto as a reason to keep raising rates) also continued to fall.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in July, as it did in June. Indexes which increased in June include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, education, and recreation. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, medical care, and communication were among those that decreased over the month. Over the last 3 months, the “core” CPI has increased by a total of 0.8%, or an annual rate of around 3.3%-3.4%. And when we have wage growth that is consistently between 4% and 5%, what’s wrong with that?

The low CPI number also means that July was another month of real wage growth, which has consistently been happening since inflation peaked in June 2022. And another consistent trend is that non-supervisory line workers have been seeing faster growth that workers overall.

That’s a pretty good situation as well, and the last 12 months have retraced about half of the inflation-adjusted losses suffered in the year before. There’s still plenty of work left to be done to get back to where we were in 2021, but it’s also still above pre-COVID (and Trump-era) levels.

1982-84 dollars

I think the “base” inflation isn’t going to cause many problems in the near future, but I certainly noticed a runup in oil prices in July and early August….because inflation isn’t hampering the economy and the stock market has increased for most of 2023. And that’s starting to reflect in higher gas prices.

This adds up, as it looks like gasoline supplies were tight at the start of this Summer, with the lowest supply levels in 8 years. But there hasn’t been any depletion of supply in June or July, and now we’re in a more typical level of gasoline availability. Also note how supply jumped last year as people backed off driving in the face of $4 and $5 gas, (and how the pre-vaccine, low-travel Summer of 2020 had so much gas around that it barely even shows up on this chart).

And while gasoline consumption is up compared to last year, it is still behind most other non-COVID Summers in our recent history (note, we only have one week of gas consumption data for August 2023). .

In addition, the Energy Information Administration, the US has pumped out at least 12 million barrels in every week of 2023, and had a new post-COVID high of 12.6 million barrels in the first week of August. So we are keeping up on the supply side as well.

So I don’t see why gasoline prices would get higher than whatever moderate increase we may see over the next few weeks. And that should quickly subside as the Summer driving season ends and demand falls further. I don’t see it spiraling like gas prices did in early 2022 – there isn’t a new overseas conflict that might pop up or some other supply disruption like we saw at that time. And I also will note that while supplies are slightly tighter than they were last year, it’s not much different than what we’ve seen in times with lower gas prices and more supplies. Especially pre-COVID.

Just play smart and don’t panic because Wall Streeters are throwing money around and/or Saudis and Russians make an effort to manipulate prices and the US economy. Even if there is a slight uptick in inflation for August as a result of what's happened in the last month to gas prices, don’t be fooled into thinking that CPI levels are going back above 5% any time soon.

Bottom line - if I were a US economic policymaker, I’d care a lot more about keeping US unemployment at or below 4% than in getting inflation below 3%. And I am suspicious of Central Bankers who do not feel the same (do you hear me, Kashkari???).

Brewers stadium talk? Cmon! We got plenty of time. Let's worry more about the NL Central

After a rough two weeks, the Brewers righted the ship over the weekend, sweeping a dreadful White Sox team in Chicago, and extending their NL Central lead to 3 ½ games over the Reds and Cubs.

Yet right before that White Sox series, as we start to feel a little better about the Crew’s prospects in 2023, we get this eye-rolling story thrown into the mix.

The Milwaukee Brewers could start taking a serious look at leaving town if a public financing deal isn't in place by fall: https://t.co/DB1ULM8qKJ

— Molly Beck (@MollyBeck) August 11, 2023

The Milwaukee Brewers could start looking for a new home this fall if state and local officials fail to reach agreement by then on a taxpayer-funded package to fund improvements to American Family Field required in the team’s lease with the state, sources say — a process that might lead them to the boomtowns of Charlotte, North Carolina or Nashville, Tennessee.

Months after Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers proposed spending $290 million in taxpayer dollars to help ensure the Brewers stay in Wisconsin, and after the Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred urged lawmakers to act quickly, a deal has not yet materialized.

That has pushed Brewers officials to a point of contemplating whether communities with fast-growing populations, and no Major League Baseball teams, might be options if state and local officials don't produce enough funding for stadium renovations, sources with knowledge of the dynamic told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

OH PLEASE! This again?

Look, the Brewers’ lease for Miller Park AmFam Field isn’t up for 7 more years, so why are team officials leaking this out now? Sure, Governor Evers’ idea of a $290 million state subsidy for fixups over the next 20 years was shot down by WisGOPs in budget talks before the first pitch of the Brewers’ season. But there’s a lot of time to work out a good deal that keep the Crew in town for another generation, maintains and improves the ballpark, and doesn’t rip off taxpayers.

That said, it does seem that Assembly Speaker Robbin’ Vos wants to get a Brewers stadium bill figured out sooner than later (well, if he doesn’t get sidetracked by threatening Supreme Court justices to try to keep his gerrymandered maps). On that front, WisPolitics had some good details on what might be in such a bill.

Vos charged state Rep. Rob Brooks with working on a framework. The Saukville Republican told WisPolitics last week the package has evolved into a $698 million proposal that would cover 27 years.

It includes $463 million from the state through taxes off Milwaukee Brewers players and personnel, as well as visiting players. It calls for an additional $100 million from the team through things like higher rent than what it’s currently playing. And local governments would be on the hook for $135 million, or about $5 million a year.

Ooh, I kind of like the idea of making the team chip in more in rent as a way of having them contribute toward repairs (after all, how many tenants get to take the operating profits of the property, like the Brewers do?).

But that “local governments” part is where things might get tricky, especially after all of the conditions that Vos and the GOP Legislature put on them with the shared revenue bill earlier this year. Beck’s Journal-Sentinel article mentions why, but also includes an interesting way forward for the locals.

Milwaukee city and county officials have opposed providing local funding for the ballpark. They say the main economic benefits generated by the Brewers are state tax revenues.

Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley in June signed a resolution, passed unanimously by the County Board, opposing any county funds used for American Family Field's renovations. But in recent days, Crowley has expressed a willingness to find a way to free up local revenue that could be used for stadium renovations, according to CBS58.

Remember that Milwaukee County just got a 0.4% sales tax passed into law last month, and might some portion of that be used for the Brewers ballpark work, with the argument being that the County will get back some of that money (and then some) from sales tax generated in and around the ballpark?

Seems like the County Exec might be OK with that.

County Exec. David Crowley confirms he's talking to GOP leaders about a plan to loosen some of the limits on how the county can use its new sales tax revenue.

Part of the pitch is that'd free up money elsewhere to help pay for AmFam Field renovations.https://t.co/KswfCXpDoh

— A.J. Bayatpour (@AJBayatpour) August 7, 2023

Crowley's communications director, Brandon Weathersby, told CBS 58 Crowley was pursuing the changes at the request of Democratic leadership in the state Legislature.

"We proposed technical changes to the Act 12 language to allow us to use sales tax dollars to further reduce our structural deficit," Weathersby said. "And provide more financial flexibility for Milwaukee County to provide a local contribution [to stadium repairs.]"…

Weathersby said Crowley's office was working with the GOP-controlled Legislature to let the county spend those dollars on more than one type of pension-related debt payment. Weathersby said state law currently only lets that revenue cover pension obligation bonds.

He said Crowley wanted to use sales tax money to pay off additional types of pension-related debt. That flexibility would then allow other dollars to go toward ballpark renovations, although Weathersby followed up to say funding stadium repairs was not a top priority.

But then the County Board would also have to OK this move, and the County Board said in May that they didn’t want to pay ANYTHING toward the Brewers stadium.

Here's my advice to the County (and City for that matter) - if you’re not keen on kicking back some of your new sales tax funds toward the Brewers’ stadium (and I totally get why), why not go to what I suggested when MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred was in MKE in May to give some light extortion on the stadium. SET UP THE BEER DISTRICT.

Would a standalone Brewers bill allow for some of the lots and land around AmFam Field to be developed and add tax base to the City/County (along with a higher levy limit, maybe?), in exchange for the property tax exemption for that land being dropped? And how much would need to be sent to the Brewers to either buy that land and allow it to be sold/developed, or to reimburse the team for lost parking revenues?

Related, why can’t this Beer District and the nearby area (think Bluemound Road and the related ballpark bars) be part of a special taxing district whose funds go to the ballpark? This is what Minneapolis did to help pay for the new Vikings Stadium and other downtown attractions, which includes an extra sales tax for “live entertainment” in the area, and includes additional taxes on liquor and restaurants in designated neighborhoods and sports facilities.

The extra sales tax in the Beer District could be sent to the Ballpark District that is the actual owner of AmFam Field to the ballpark, you allow for more development on the east and southeast parts of the Brewers’ property, and put that property on the tax rolls.

And thinking it over more - do we even need to reimburse the Brewers for parking revenue that may be lost? Especially as a trade-off for where the rent isn't raised as much because the Beer District is paying for the team's upkeep and repairs to the ballyard?

On the local side, the City and County should get a higher tax base, and could even lower the property tax rate for homeowners in the process. Lastly, if you never go to a Brewers game or hang out in the Beer District, you’ll never pay a dime toward the stadium upkeep and repairs (much like how they don't pay much/anything toward FiServ Forum) so that should tamp down on voter resentment.

There are a lot of ways this can go, and we can take our time to get it right. So let’s shut down the “OMIGOD! The Brewers could leave in 7 years!” talk – from both the politicians and the team. It pisses off fans and others in the state, and it’s an especially stupid strategy because the threat isn’t immediate.

Instead, work behind the scenes over the coming months on a package, and let’s have the only headlines about the Brewers being stuff that relates to their quest to get this message back up on the AmFam Field scoreboard in late September of this year.

Napoleon Vos making up impeachment to keep gerrymandered maps? I wouldn't try that, Robbin'.

I have had suspicions that the constant whining from conservatives on the Wisconsin Supreme Court about the changes that come with being in the minority for the first time in 15 years was being created by WisGOP and their media spokespeople to try to lead to something.

And sure enough, the power-drunk Assembly Speaker went on RW radio yesterday to hint at what they might try out of a desperate attempt to stay in power at the Capitol.

Assembly Speaker Robin Vos says GOP lawmakers who control the state Legislature may consider impeachment if liberal Supreme Court Justice Janet Protasiewicz doesn't recuse from redistricting cases after calling maps "rigged" https://t.co/djT1jg0rWz

— Molly Beck (@MollyBeck) August 12, 2023

Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, a Republican from Rochester, said in an interview on WSAU he does not believe impeachment should be considered lightly by lawmakers. But he said the idea could move forward if Protasiewicz does not recuse herself on cases he said she "prejudged" during her campaign for a seat on the state's highest court.

"If there's any semblance of honor on the state Supreme Court left, you cannot have a person who runs for the court prejudging a case and being open about it, and then acting on the case as if you're an impartial observer," Vos told conservative WSAU host Meg Ellefson when asked whether the Legislature could successfully defend the current boundaries with a liberal-controlled state Supreme Court.

"You cannot have a judge who said, you know, the maps are rigged because she bought into the argument that that's why we're winning elections, not the quality of our candidates, and then she sits on that trial acting like she's gonna listen and hear both sides fairly − that just can't happen."

Uhh, Robbin'. Are the circumstances of your gerrymandering somehow different today than they were in April? No, they are not. And Justice Janet was elected by DOUBLE DIGITS after telling the truth about what she thought about those maps.

Based on this screen-grab from Wisconsin Eye, I don't think "telling the truth and following through on what you said you would do" satisfies the standard for impeachment.

May I also remind you that 12 years ago, Republicans were arguing against recalls on GOPs who voted for Act 10, even though the union-busting of Act 10 was never debated during the elections that put them into power, and it likely would have been defeated if it was put tpo a statewide referendum. But now some of the same clowns are thinking Protasiewicz should be impeached/removed for....following through on what she said she would do if elected?

WisGOP legislators should take note of how their fellow Republicans in Ohio suffered a massive defeat this week. Esquire's Charlie Pierce describes it well in his "subscriber-only column for the week.

The stage was set perfectly. The legislature had a perfectly engineered Republican majority and Republicans held all the major constitutional offices. So, when the advocates of reproductive freedom proposed an amendment to the state constitution guaranteeing reproductive freedom for all Ohioans, all that was needed to pass the amendment was a majority vote this November. So the Republicans called for a special election on the proposition that the threshold for an amendment be raised to 60 percent. The current amendment process is a legacy from President Theodore Roosevelt in 1912. And the Republicans arranged for the special election to be held in August, when nobody would care. What clever dicks they were. This past week, it turned out that the ducks were not in a row, but all the chickens came home to roost. President Teddy kicked all kinds of ass from the Beyond. From the Ohio Capital Journal:

Twenty-two of Ohio’s 88 counties voted no against Issue 1. The bulk came from Cuyahoga and Franklin counties, with democratic voters focusing on how raising the threshold for a constitutional amendment to pass from a simple majority to 60% was meant to thwart the abortion rights proposal on the November ballot. But deep blue counties weren’t the only ones voting no. Twelve fall into the urban category, 6 in the partly rural and four totally rural. Fifteen of the 22 counties voted for Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election.

The Republicans’ proposal was completely thrashed, losing 57 percent to 43, adding Ohio to the diverse roster of states in which reproductive freedom has shown overwhelming political power. It opens the door to other potential state constitutional amendments, including one that would forbid partisan gerrymandering. The odds on the pro-choice amendment in the November election have now flipped completely in its favor, and that may prove invaluable to incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown’s re-election effort. This is especially piquant because one possible Brown opponent is Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who bulldogged the proposed change in the amendment threshold and who was not thrilled by the fact that his tricksy maneuver was blown up at the polls. Again, from the Ohio Capital Journal:

By Tuesday morning, LaRose, who was the most visible face of Issue 1, might have been worried. Before noon, he ducked a meeting with reporters. That afternoon, he was attacked by an Arizona Republican who came to Ohio to campaign for Issue 1. That evening, after the blowout became apparent, he skipped a press conference and the official speaking in his place pointed blame at his fellow Republicans. At 11:23 p.m., LaRose broke his silence by issuing a statement. It was angry, misleading, and hardly a concession that voters disliked his proposal, which they defeated by a 14-point margin. Making the loss even more bitter, some counties that had voted for Donald Trump in 2020 joined the chorus in voting “no” on Issue 1.

Turns out voters don't like it when politicians do transparent power grabs instead of actual work.

Assembly Republicans should be asking themselves if they really want to have Napoleon Vos desperately running around thinking of tactics to trying to cling to power instead of doing anything that voters want. Because it should be assumed that ALL Republicans are OK with the effort to hamstring and/or remove a Justice that Wisconsinites overwhelmingly put into office, even if a few of them put up a symbolic "No" vote on impeachment to try to cover themselves.

If the WisGOP Legislature was smart instead of drunk on power, they'd shut up, let the maps go through, let the abortion ban get overturned, and take their chances in 2024. After all, even a fair map favors Republicans for control of the State Legislature - they just have to work a little harder to stay in control, and have to listen to what their constituents. Which in GOPWorld is considered a problem instead of an opportunity.

Look, I know that Republicans don't care about being hypocrites and they are incapable of shame. But fear of voter hatred (or even voter attention) and losing their jobs will at least shake some of them. So if I were the WisDems, I would be pounding the local airwaves in GOP-held districts that voted for Protasiewicz and demand that the local reps follow the wishes of their voters, and not scared, dweeby Robbin' Vos and his oligarch puppetmasters.

Besides, the power-hungry and out-of-touch GOP has lost almost every statewide race since 2016, and if they try any funny business with Justice Janet or the rest of the Wisconsin Supreme Court, and deny the people what they voted for, they're going to have an even bigger loss in 2024. Big enough that even your illegitimate gerrymander might not save you. You really want that?

Evers special session - a reminder of what he (and us) want and still need

When the state budget got signed last month, there was plenty of unfinished business for the rest of the 2023-25 session. And our Governor is asking that some of this business be taken care of next month.

Our state is in a strong fiscal position. But, despite having the largest surplus in state history, Republicans failed to meet the moment. Instead, they rejected my efforts to bolster our workforce without any real justification, debate, or plan of their own.

— Governor Tony Evers (@GovEvers) August 8, 2023

The Special Session wouldn't start until September 20 (because God Forbid we do work at the Capitol in August), but let's break down the Governor's press release that goes over what he is asking for in the special session. The first item that Evers mentions deals with maintaining and improving access to child care.

· More than $340 million, including $38.9 million in Temporary Assistance for Need Families (TANF) funds, for the Child Care Counts Program that to date has helped more than 4,300 child care providers keep their doors open, ensuring the employment of 22,000 child care professionals and allowing providers to continue to provide high-quality care to more than 113,000 kids; and
· $22.3 million for the Partner Up! Program, which has helped support employers in purchasing child care spots for their employees at existing regulated child care providers across the state. A portion of this investment redirects the $15 million that the 2023-25 budget placed in the Joint Finance Committee supplemental appropriation for the purposes of grants to child care providers. As of March 2023, 220 businesses have enrolled in Partner Up!, securing slots for over 1,200 kids across Wisconsin.

Child Care Counts was part of Evers' 2023-25 budget plans, and would have continued a COVID-era program to help child care providers make ends meet. But it was removed by GOP legislators during budget deliberations, and while the GOPs on Joint Finance did allow the Evers Administration to use up $11 million in COVID-era funding to bolster Child Care Counts in the coming months, Child Care Counts is on track to run out of money next January.

Another Evers budget request would have set up a statewide paid family leave program in Wisconsin, similar to what was signed into law in Minnesota in May. But that was also taken out of Wisconsin's budget by Republicans, and Evers wants to bring FMLA back with this special session.

Under the paid FMLA Program, workers will be eligible for 12 weeks of leave beginning Jan. 1, 2025. This program will be self-sustaining by 2026, and benefits will be funded through payroll contributions shared equally by an employer and an employee, much like the current Unemployment Insurance system. In order to launch the program expeditiously, the governor’s plan infuses the new benefit and administration trust fund with a transfer of $243.4 million. Employers with fewer than 50 employees would be able to opt-in to the program.

It's the same proposal from Evers' budget as well, with the state paying $243.4 million in startup costs, and payroll taxes paying for the rest. Don't bet on this getting passed with the ALEC crew in charge, but Evers wants to keep the issue in public consciousness, which tells you that he thinks it's a winner.

Another central part of Evers' special session package involves adding funding to higher education, which seems especially relevant in light of this headline from last week.

UW-Oshkosh said it will begin intermittent furloughs and layoffs in order to reduce a projected 2023 structural deficit of up to $18 million. https://t.co/RjnbAt0bOf

— TMJ4 News (@tmj4) August 3, 2023

As always, GOP cuts to the UW System hurt the other 4-year campuses in the rest of the state, not "those liberals in Madison."

With that in mind, Evers is asking the Legislature to give the System additional state funding of $66.4 million, which matches what he wanted to do in his budget. Evers also wants to increase aid to the Technical College System by $40 million, and Evers also wants to increase financial aid for low-income students by expanding Wisconsin Grants by more than $17 million. None of these initiative got assistance from the GOP Legislature in the current budget.

Another item Evers is asking the GOP Legislature to reconsider is having more than $197 million go to replace and update the outdated UW-Madison Engineering Building. That move was met with immediate approval from Bucky's Chancellor.

A new UW engineering building would propel innovation, enhance the state’s workforce and boost the entire Wisconsin economy.

Our thanks to Governor Evers and members of the Legislature for continuing the conversation around this vital project.https://t.co/1UAaX6vLNy

— Chancellor Jennifer Mnookin (@uwchancellor) August 8, 2023

Lastly, Evers wants to invest in some intiaitves to increase the workforce and services in some high-need sectors.

✅ Targets high-need sectors and industries like our healthcare and education workforces, including $160 million for solutions to our healthcare workforce shortages and more than $16 million to address the teacher shortage and bolster educator pipelines.

— Governor Tony Evers (@GovEvers) August 8, 2023

We certainly have the money available to do all of these things over the next 2 years. After the GOP removed a number of Evers' spending requests, and Evers vetoed GOP tax cuts for the rich, the state is projected to have around $4 billion available throughout this 2-year budget.

You'd think that businesses would welcome state efforts to help remove barriers to joinging the work force and the funding of higher education in the state, as it'll improve the pool of workers available. But I bet the "business leaders" at WMC will tell Robbin' Vos and company to double down on regressive tax cuts instead.

And the thing is - I undertand that most of what Evers is doing is entirely pose, with little chance of succeeding. Along with some of these spending proposals, he could have also revived the lower-income tax cut package that he had in his original budget, and possibly expand the cut in tax rates to around $150,000 or $200,000 in income. That would remove the GOP argument of "this is just politics", and would have forced them to be seen as "gaveling out" for petty, personal reasons instead of having a serious counter-proposal.

Not that I count on WisGOPs to be serious with this spending-only package, but I do appreciate Evers being willing to keep pushing the issue, because he and the Dems have the advantage on the real issues. And with new maps looming, WisGOPs continuing to do nothing while billions sit in the bank should be something pounded on for the next 15 months.

Rural Wisconsin is getting the bigger state aid boosts in this budget, no matter what GOPs tell you.

I wanted to revisit a post I made a couple of weeks back that discussed a veto Governor Evers made on road funding that made many rural Republicans cry crocodile tears. T The Legislative Fiscal Bureau recently released a rundown on that veto, and included important context to go along with it which shows that the rurals are getting a great deal as a result of the 2023-25 budget and legislative session.

First, let's talk about Evers' veto.

As passed by the Legislature, Senate Bill 70 [the 2023-25 State Budget] would have also increased the GTA program's mileage aid rate payment for municipalities by 2.0% annually, from its current level of $2,734 per mile, to $2,789 per mile for calendar year 2024, and to $2,845 per mile for 2025, and thereafter. The Governor's partial veto deletes these provisions. Consequently, the current law statutory mileage aid rate payment of $2,734 per mile for calendar year 2023, and thereafter, is retained. The veto primarily affects towns, as most cities and villages are on the share of cost component of the GTA formula and most towns are on the mileage aid component of the formula. As a result, most towns will not receive additional aid from the 2% annual increase in general transportation aid. Instead, as shown in the last row of the Attachment, because of the Governor's partial veto, an estimated $3.2 million in 2023-24 and $6.4 million in 2024-25, in additional funding would be available to be allocated to those municipalities on the share-of-cost side of the GTA formula.

So these towns don't get additional funding from the state via GTAs for the next 2 years. But those reallocations total less than 1% of all the money that will go out under GTAs for 2024, and just over 1.5% for 2025.

Governor Evers also reminded us that this change in the GTA formula isn’t nearly as one-sided as the cuts in GTAs that were signed into law in Scott Walker’s first budget. And that pro-rural change has stayed in place in the state's funding formula (and compounded) for the last 12 years.

As stated in the Governor's veto message, the 2011-13 budget reduced funding for general transportation aid by 10%, while the mileage aid rate was reduced by only 3%, which had the opposite effect of the Governor Evers current veto. That provision reduced overall funding for general transportation aid by 10% for nearly all (except very small) cities and villages while reducing funding for towns and small cities and villages on mileage aid by 3%, and continues to affect the distribution of GTA funding each year. The rationale for the 2011-13 provision was that smaller municipalities, by having a limited number, if any, full-time employees, with full employee benefits, could not partake in the employee cost reductions mandated under 2011 Act 10.

And by the way, the total of $9.6 million in reallocations in GTAs is a fraction of the added funds that are targeted to towns and other rural areas in this budget. Starting with another state aid program to help pay for road projects - the Local Roads Improvement Program (LRIP), and also including a huge boost to transportation access to farmland.

While the Governor's veto would mean that municipalities on mileage aid will continue to receive the same amount of general transportation aid over the next two years that they received in 2023, other budget provisions provided increased aid to local governments. For example, towns and counties will be the primary recipients of the newly-created agricultural roads improvement program, which is provided $150 million in one-time funding in the 2023-25 biennium under Act 19. The program will make grants of up to 90% of eligible costs to reimburse political subdivisions for agricultural road projects. Act 19 also provides one-time funding of $100,000,000 in 2023-24 for the local roads improvement program supplementary grants (LRIP-S) component, which funds county trunk highway improvements, town road improvements, and municipal street improvements. The LRIP-S program funding is distributed in the same percentages as the LRIP discretionary grants component (35.6% for counties, 39.0% for towns, and 25.4% for municipalities in the 2023-25 biennium). The LRIP program formula component and discretionary component also received a 4% annual increase in the biennium under Act 19. Table 1 indicates the total and percent increase in biennial LRIP funding in 2023-25 compared to base funding for each local government type. As shown in the table, towns will receive the largest percentage increase in total LRIP funding in biennium.

Outside of direct funding for roads, the LFB adds that towns are seeing their amounts of shared revenues go up more than 156% under the newly-signed law, allowing for more resources that can go to a variety of needs, including roads. Towns will get nearly 1/3 of the increase among Wisconsin’s cities, villages and town, despite the fact that less than 27% of Wisconsinites live in those communities.

In addition, Wisconsin counties are getting a 55% total increase in shared revenues, but Milwaukee County was given only a 16% increase as part of the shared revenue bill. This translates into many rural counties getting a lot more than a 55% increase (click here to see how your neighborhood fares under this).

Bottom line – rural Wisconsin is getting more than its share of state funds sent its way in the state budget, despite accounting for less of the state's economic activity. I don't even mind some of those funds being redirected - everyone deserves first-class infrastructure and services no matter where they live - but things are heavily slanted in favor of communities that have few taxpayers and jobs residing in them, and it lessens the need for them to have wheel taxes, sales taxes and other measures to make up the difference. I'd say that's a very good deal for those rural residents.

Governor Evers' veto’s attempt to rebalance a fraction of those extra millions is only fair (and nowhere near as much as what would be truly fair). And the best part is that the added aids of all sorts in this budget should limit the strains on property taxes and other services, allowing for all of communities to have a better chance to improve for the rest of the 2020s.

July jobs - More jobs, more people want to work, and more money being made by workers.

Another month, another decent US jobs report.

Key takeaways from July job report:

1) The economy is humming
2) Job growth is slowing, but solid (+187k jobs now vs. +399k avg. last yr)
3) Service sector is hiring (health, social)
4) Women have done so well they make up 49.9% of workers (!)
5) Wage growth +4.4% y/y is well… pic.twitter.com/jeG0GfdQPW

— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) August 4, 2023

A couple of numbers that stand out to me in this report is that while job growth continues, it also continues to decelerate from the torrid pace of 2021. Which you would expect when we get below 4% unemployment, but it's also what the Federal Reserve bankers would want to see if they're still concerned about "overheating" and inflation.

Adding over 1 million private sector jobs in 6 months during a full-employment situation is still pretty good. And two sectors have been especially strong in recent reports. One is construction, which has added over 100,000 jobs in 2023 even as manufacturing hiring has flatlined in the wake of the Fed's interest rate hikes.

And another is health care, which added 64,000 jobs in July, has added over 300,000 jobs in 2023, and has added nearly 900,000 jobs since the end of 2021. This puts health care employment well above its pre-COVID levels.

And even better is that unemployment dropped in July for the "good reason" - more people continuing to enter the work force and finding jobs. In the last two months, the BLS says a total of 285,000 Americans have joined the work force (seasonally adjusted, the non-seasonal increase is 1.65 million), and a seasonally-adjusted 541,000 more Americans say they are working.

The rate of people entering the US work force is something we haven't seen in 23 years.

More than 3.1m workers joined the labor force in the past year. That’s a nearly 2% expansion of the labor force — something that has not occurred since the tech craze of July 1999 to July 2000 and was more common in the 1970s and 1980s. https://t.co/mmgJ8NWzHR pic.twitter.com/IsW0Tj88Of

— Catherine Rampell (@crampell) August 4, 2023

The '70s and '80s were also the peak of Baby Boomers becoming working age and/or rejoining the work force after having kids. No such case in America of the 2020s, but it does seem that those Boomers that left the work force are being replaced, which is a very good sign for future growth potential.

So moderate job growth, favorable work force numbers, and good wage growth that's beating inflation? Seems like a good idea to try to keep the good times rolling for the rest of 2023.

First order of business for new Wis Supreme Court - new maps. And I'm here to help!

Wanted to follow up from the big court filing of this week. Well, the OTHER big court filing of the week.

A lawsuit filed today asks Wisconsin's newly liberal-controlled state Supreme Court to throw out Republican-drawn legislative maps as unconstitutional, the latest legal challenge of many nationwide that could upset political boundary lines before 2024.https://t.co/vhULJzt3rI

— Scott Bauer (@sbauerAP) August 2, 2023

The long-promised action is backed by Democrats and was filed by a coalition of law firms and voting rights advocacy groups. It comes the day after the Wisconsin Supreme Court flipped from a conservative to liberal majority, with the start of the term of a justice who said that the Republican maps were “rigged” and should be reviewed. “Despite the fact that our legislative branch is meant to be the most directly representative of the people, the gerrymandered maps have divided our communities, preventing fair representation,” said Jeff Mandell, board president of Law Forward, one of the groups that brought the lawsuit....

The latest challenge asks the Wisconsin Supreme Court to take the case directly, rather than have it work through lower courts, arguing that the state legislative maps are an unconstitutional gerrymander. Notably, the lawsuit does not challenge the congressional maps....

The petition filed with the Supreme Court argues that the current maps unconstitutionally retaliate against some voters based on their viewpoint and free speech; create non-contiguous districts that include scattered fragments of detached territory; treat some voters worse than others based on their political views and where they live; and violate the promise of a free government.

Had to be done, and it absolutely needs to go directly to the new Supreme Court. Time is short, and these maps must be fixed before Spring 2024, when candidates send out nominating petitions and file for the August primaries.

The fact that this suit came so fast isn't surprising, but this part of the suit was something I hadn't thought of.

The lawsuit asks that all 132 state lawmakers be up for election that year in newly drawn districts. In Senate districts that are midway through a four-year term in 2024, there would be a special election with the winner serving two years. Then the regular four-year cycle would resume again in 2026.

It makes sense, right? If the maps were illegitimate in 2022, then everyone elected to the Senate is illegitimate, and they can't be allowed to stay around any longer than necessary. EARN THAT SEAT.

Of course, if the maps are found to be illegal, the question then becomes "How do you fix it?" Well, I have Assembly and Senate maps RIGHT HERE, if Law Forward or anyone wants to submit them. It's basically what I did before, with a few improvements and tweaks since then.

All I did was try to keep communities together (the current maps split up a lot of cities for no reason beyond gerrymandering), set lines in logical, relatively compact ways, and tried to make sure a sufficient amount of districts in Milwaukee (along with one in Racine) were majority-minority.

The result was this Assembly map.

Compare that to the current GOP gerrymander.

I think a good baseline to use for 2024 is Tony Evers' 3.5% win in 2022, especially given now-Justice Janet's 10 point win in April, and the general mess that is the Wisconsin GOP and MAGA Trash these days. And if you use 2022's Governor election outcomes, GOP candidate Tim Michels would have still won a majority of districts, but only 55 of 99, which is a 9-seat difference from the 64-35 GOP majority that exists today. And over 20 races end up being close, where the total vote margin is within 10 points.

The Senate map tells a similar story. These districts are more noticeably different, because of how 3 Assembly seats get folded into one Senate seat. This time I'll give you the GOP gerrymander first.

And now check out my map, which changes where some Assembly districts get folded into, particularly around Green Bay and in breaking up the gerrymander around Racine and Kenosha, where 2 safe seats split between urban and rural become 2 competitive seats that largely stay within county lines.

Under this map, Evers would only have won 14 of 33 districts while winning the state by 3.5%. But that's a whole lot more representative than the 2-1 supermajority that GOPs have in the Senate today. And if all 33 Senate districts are up for election in 2024, it is possible for the upper chamber to flip if Democrats win by 6-7%.

And that's all we ask for with these maps. Just make it so that there are enough competitive districts that if a party wins convincingly statewide, they are able to have control of the Legislature, and that more candidates have to listen to everyday Wisconsinites instead of the fraction of a fraction of a fraction that votes in party primaries.

So if Law Forward or some other organization wants to help the new Supreme Court majority get these maps into place, they can save valuable time by not having to draw it themselves. And I (and so many others that have already drawn maps over the last 3 years) are glad to be part of that help!