U.S. job revisions = Walker cost Wisconsin 39,000 jobs in 4 months

The number getting all the attention in yesterday's U.S. jobs report was the drop in the unemployment rate to 8.6%. And while that's significant, it's also skewed by 315,000 people dropping out of the work force, and a very low 64.0% participation rate, so there's lots of work still to do.

Less mentioned was the total job increase itself. 120,000 were total jobs added in November and 140,000 in the private sector, as well as decent upward revisions in the previous months. This continues a trend of steady if unspectacular job growth throughout most of the last 2 years, with nearly 2.9 million private sector jobs created since the end of 2009, and almost 2.4 million jobs overall.

U.S. job growth 2011
2011- 1.58% private, 1.06% all jobs

U.S. job growth 2010-2011 combined
2010-2011 - 2.70% private, 1.85% all jobs

It also magnifies the failures of Scott Walker in the same department, as the revisions increase how far behind Wisconsin is with the gains in the rest of the country, especially since Walker's budget became law on July 1.

Wisconsin vs. U.S. jobs Jan.-Oct. 2011
U.S. +0.97%, Wis. +0.13% (-0.84%)
Wisconsin GAP -23,100 jobs

Wisconsin vs. U.S. jobs June-October 2011
U.S. +0.41% Wis. -0.99% (-1.40%)
Wisconsin GAP -39,000 jobs

You read that right. If Wisconsin grew at the same rate as the rest of the country over the last 4 months, we would have had 39,000 more jobs than we do now. If Wisconsin had kept up with the country since January (the month before Walker "dropped the bomb"), we'd be up 23,100 jobs.

And it looks even worse when you compare that to the numbers in the previous 12 months to "dropping the bomb."

Wisconsin vs. U.S. jobs Jan. 2010-Jan. 2011
U.S. +0.81% Wis. +1.44% (+0.63%)
Wisconsin GAP +17,000 jobs

You read that right too. 6 months after Jim Doyle the Dems' "tax-hiking, job-killing" budget, Wisconsin was GAINING 17,000 JOBS OVER WHAT THEY SHOULD HAVE. Wish you had them back now?

Now, I know math and numbers are items that scare the daylights out of the average tightie righty, but 17,000 JOBS OVER is a helluva lot better than 39,000 JOBS UNDER. These numbers also show that we're back below the 2-year trend of growth for the rest of the nation.

Why would we accept Wisconsin staying behind the country's job growth? Oh, wait, over 300,000 of us has decided that we won't accept that, and another 600,000 of us (or so) will probably follow. And no unenforceable DOA protest policy's gonna stop that us from reminding you of that reality.

Was there a "Brewer stimulus"? Small, but possible

Now that the state has reported the sales taxes for counties that have sales taxes through the middle of November, I figured now would be a good time to see if the Milwaukee area truly benefitted from the Brewers' run to the NLCS. If there was a serious "Brewer stimulus", you'd see it in sales taxes, as the extra ticket sales, team gear, and food and drinks spent out at bars would be reflected in that type of revenue.

The short answer is- minorly. Milwaukee County had a definite increase in sales tax revenues for the October and November distributions vs. last year (which reflect sales in September and October), but it was already getting increased revenues before then, and it's a bit hard to tell if the increase comes only from the Crew's success.

Milwaukee Co. sales tax revenues
Jan.-Sept. 2011 - $47,783,484
Jan.-Sept. 2010 - $45,026,681(2011 increase 6.12%)

Oct.-Nov. 2011 - $11,305,025
Oct.-Nov. 2010 - $10,191,673 (2011 increase 10.92%)

I think Chris Abele and County staff will take the modest bump. So will the Stadium district (the 5-county 0.1% sales tax that helps pay for Miller Park), as they were up 9.41% vs. October and November of 2010.

But possibly the biggest winners from the Brewers run may be the Wisconsin Center District, who own and operate downtown Milwaukee facilities like the MECCA, Milwaukee Theatre, and the convention center. From the WCD's own website, it explains how it gets its money to operate.

WCD receives no property tax money or Federal, State or local subsidy. Its operations are funded by operating revenues. Special sales taxes on hotel rooms, on prepared food and drinks sold in restaurants and taverns, and on car rentals repay a $185 million bond issue that funded the Midwest Express Center project, and provide funding to Visit Milwaukee. None of these tax revenues are used to fund WCD operations.

Within the boundaries of Milwaukee County, WCD collects 2% on rooms, 3% on car rentals, and 0.5% on food and beverage sales. It also receives a 7% hotel room tax formerly collected by the City of Milwaukee. Effective January, 2011, the county-wide hotel room tax increases to 2.5%, as requested by affected hoteliers to provide additional funding for Visit Milwaukee.

And the WCD saw those revenues go up 18.50% in the three-month period of September, October and November. That increased hotel tax hit at just the right time with the Brewers getting hot and grabbing so much of out town media that needed to stay in the Milwaukee area. Now can they get that center paid off and give the hotel tax back to the City of Milwaukee so city residents can get some breaks on their property taxes? Worth keeping an eye on.

So it looks like the Brewers' success gave a minor lift to the County and Stadium district finances, and a big boost to the Milwaukee Center District and Milwaukee "lesiure industry" work. Too bad for Scott Walker that this Brewers-related business still couldn't save us from being dead last in job growth during that same period, and that the Brewers' bump in sales taxes was over with October.

Ironically, it's these "leisure industry" workers that have had a dearth of downtown sporting events in the last month due to the Bucks lockout, and you can bet they're as glad as anyone in the state is to see the NBA lockout end. Let's see if that pops in for the last month of the year and January 2012.

Will Wisconsin ever get back to full employment?

This sort of an add-on to the last post, but here is a good article in this week's Isthmus regarding Wisconsin and the jobs gap that opened up as a result of the 2007-2009 recession. The whole article is good and I recommend reading it, but here's a couple of key takeaways from it.

The first is how the experts show how our economy has changed, and how Wisconsin will have to adjust to meet it. This quote is from Tim Smeeding, who heads the UW's Institute for Research on Poverty.

"These are jobs that were decreasing in the pre-recession period, and the recession made them go down even faster," [Smeeding] says. "Our employment in manufacturing in this country has been dropping since 1970. We don't live in the Mercury outboard motor world, the Chevy SUV world or the Harley-Davidson world anymore. We live in an Epic world."

"Epic" is, of course, Verona's successful medical software company, which has continued to add to its workforce despite the parched economy. The way forward may be technology and specialized manufacturing, Smeeding says. "If you don't have a post-secondary degree, you're in big trouble."

2 thoughts on this:

1. If you need a bachelor's and post-secondary degree to make it in the 2010s and beyond, as Smeeding suggests, why did Gov. Walker impose $250 million in cuts to the UW System is the 2011-2013 budget. And then he doubled down on those cuts by putting in a disproportionate $66 million in additional cuts to the UW system in the DOA's notorious lapses. This will clearly limit the variety of classes UW schools can offer, reduces the ability for these schools to compete for high-level faculty and staff, and raises tuition to the UW schools by a total of $107 million (5.5% in each year for an 11.3% total increase over 2 years). In a time when high-level higher education should be a huge Wisconsin priority, Walker chose to go in the complete opposite direction.

2. Epic Systems, in addition to being the largest private employer in the county that added the most people in Wisconsin last decade, also defines a different way of business in Wisconsin (and I don't just mean the crazy hours and singular culture that Epic is known for in the Madison area). Epic has refused to work with vendors who joined with the right-wing shills at Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce. Why? Because Epic understands that the failed, "profit by any means necessary without regard to other effects" mentality that defines oligarch orgs like WMC is no way to succeed in the 21st Century. Compare that thinking to Scott Walker and Co. feeling they need to cling to WMC/ Bradley old-money, old-boys club style of thinking. Who do you think will develop the strategies to make it in the modern world? I'll go with Judy Faulkner and the folks at Epic.

Here's one other big part of the article, including a former professor of mine at the UW.

Jack Huddleston, a professor of urban and regional planning at the UW, says the last state budget "cut local aids by about a billion dollars. That translates immediately" to employment losses in local government. He's skeptical of projections that these jobs will take another hit in 2012. "I don't see the bleeding continuing," he says.

But Andrew Reschovsky, an economist and professor of public affairs at UW-Madison, predicts that the bleeding will accelerate. "The pressure on local government is going to grow," he says. Stuck in the vise, alongside the state's municipalities, are the state's schools, where teachers have gotten the ax. "You don't make these kinds of cuts without having employment effects," he says.

No you don't Prof. Reschovsky. We've seen that as part of the big job losses that have hit since Walker's budget took effect on July 1 (most notably the loss of 9,000 local government jobs since August, reflecting lower-than-usual staffing at K-12 schools). And you will continue too see that happen in 2012, because many of the cuts reflected in municipal governments do not take effect until the new local fiscal year on January 1. We are not done shedding jobs in the public sector by a long shot, and given that public sector employees buy things and own houses just like private sector folks do, it will put serious pressure on other parts of our state's economy.

So as the Isthmus article shows, a large gap in jobs continues in Wisconsin, much like it has in the rest of America, and it shows that we are a long way from the peak employment times of 1999-2000. But the path that Scott Walker and his backers chose have put us even further behind in the hole, and until his slash-and-funnel-to-the-rich-and-corporate mentality is driven out on Madison, we aren't going to come close to getting back to where we need to be.

Walker spin on jobs- more lies and failures

Thanks to James Rowen, I got this heads-up on more Twitter spin from Gov. Walker's office.

@GovWalker- From 2007-10, WI lost more than 150,000 private sector jobs. From Jan - Oct 2011, WI added more than 20,000 private sector jobs.

I suppose the point that Walker and co. are trying to make is that somehow Jim Doyle and the Dems were responsible for the large job losses from 2007-2010, and that Walker and the WisGOPs were the ones who turned around Wisconsin's job losses in the last 9 months. Seems laughable enough on its face, given Wisconsin's last-in-the-nation "honors" for job growth in the last 4 months, and the charts showing Wisconsin falling behind the rest of the country under Walker, but let's take a closer look and see what we have.

Well, the numbers seem close enough to reality (I'll even allow Scotty his 20,000 "private sector job growth" claim, although half of that was in the month of January, before he "dropped the bomb" on public employees). But as is typical in Walker World, key context is not mentioned. And the big context here is how the U.S. economy dropped its own bomb on American jobs, and we should look at how Wisconsin compared to the rest of the country. We'll use the 12-month change from December of each of these years.

Job growth Wisconsin and U.S., 2007-2010
2007 - Wis. +0.43%, U.S. +0.80% (Wis. -0.37% vs. U.S.)
2008 - Wis. -1.71%, U.S. -2.61% (Wis. +0.90%)

In 2008, Wisconsin elected the Dems to control of both houses of the Legislature, and they passed a budget in the face of a massive budget deficit and job losses in June 2009, let's see how they did.

2009 - Wis. -4.74%, U.S. -3.77% (Wis. -0.97%)
2010 - Wis. +1.40%, U.S. +0.73% (Wis. +0.67%)

So the collapsing Wisconsin economy had stabilized under the Doyle/ Dem budget, and were adding jobs at almost twice the national rate in 2010. Walker took office in the midst of these recovering times in January 2011, and has thrown it into reverse, even as the rest of the country keeps adding jobs.

2011 All jobs Wis. +0.13%, U.S. +0.91% (Wis. -0.78%)
Private sector Wis. 0.38%, U.S. +1.33% (Wis. -0.95%)

So when Scotty and his minions throw Tweets out like Friday's spin, remind them that we are lagging the U.S. badly, and losing as badly as we were 2 years ago. Unfortunately, we don't have a Dem-controlled Legislature or Governor that will make the moves necessary to turn that around and get us back on track.

Hmmm, sounds like we might need to put in Dem legislators and a Dem governor in 2012 to get moving again, doesn't it?

Dear J-S- We know whose side you're on. It's not ours

I just sent this to the Journal-Sentinel letters to the editor file. It's a short version of what I wanted to send, because they limit the size of your submission. I wanted to go more into the prominence they give to right-wing columnists like Christian Schneider and Mike Nichols from the Bradley-funded WPRI (aka We Promote Republican Idiocy). I also wanted to mention the huge megaphone right-wing liars get to have on WTMJ, WISN, and other hate radio without any balance given for the majority of Wisconsinites who want Scott Walker gone.

But that requires a lot more explanation than they allow for plebes like me, since I don't belong to the right social clubs for the J-S. So instead I settled for this.

"Those of us that pay attention to things like consistency in media can't help but notice how the Journal-Sentinel has chosen to cover certain events.

For example, the sketchy, race-baiting, (and totally false) accusations regarding young African-American recall petition signers were generated by a Bradley Foundation-funded right-wing group called Media Trackers. The Journal-Sentinel refused to consider the biased source of these lies, allowed Journal Communications employee Charles Sykes to run with those false accusations. Your paper then gave prominent space to dutifully follow up on the "story," allowing these lies to be displayed on the front page when you knew they were false and inflammatory.

You know what didn't get on the front page? Liberal One Wisconsin Now's $10,000 reward offered for information relating to the arrest of people who wish to deface and destroy recall petitions. Makes you wonder why it's different, doesn't it?

When I was going through the airport to fly out for Thanksgiving with my family, I checked your paper to see if there was coverage of the Bureau of Labor Statistics report that showed Wisconsin to be dead last in America in job performance for the month of October. Was this big news on your front page? No. It wasn't even on the front page of the business section. That's a choice made by your management.

When I came back from my Thanksgiving trip with family, what do I find in huge type on the J-S front page? Some sensationalistic story about City of Milwaukee employees "triple-dipping", also chosen by your management. No doubt this report would also be used by WTMJ talking heads for fodder on the GOP propaganda and filth that passes for daytime broadcasting on Journal Communications' radio station.

These are but two examples as to why many of us have chosen to cancel our paper subscriptions to the Journal-Sentinel, as you have not only refused to admit your mistake of endorsing the failed Scott Walker for governor, but you and your broadcast stations continue to allow right-wing spin meisters to give unchallenged deceptions and lies without any sense of judgment or allowance for balance from the other side.

You at the Journal-Sentinel have a choice. Either start to balance to the right-wing noise brigade that dominates your publications and broadcast stations, and make these people accountable for their lies and deceptions. Or expect many more disruptions and direct actions by us who have been diminished and silenced for far too long, and your corporation and advertisers will pay a big price- both in the pocketbook, and in your integrity.

Well, that's if you have any integrity left, because right now, a lot of us see nothing more than a tabloid rag that favors a small oligarchy who could not care less about the overall well-being of our state."

Edit, here's another example of the J-S's leanings. They allow a scared Sykes-sucker from Elm Grove a full column to spew proofless garbage like this.

H/t Illusory tenant.

Because the J-S won't tell you- Walker's Wisconsin DEAD LAST for jobs

The monthly state-by-state employment report confirmed what I suspected. Wisconsin had the nation's worst job record in October, and our fair state garners a number of "honors" in this month's report.

In October, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 39 states and the District of Columbia, and decreased in 11 states. The largest over-the-month increases in employment occurred in Illinois (+30,000) and California (+25,700). The largest over-the-month decrease in employment occurred in
Wisconsin (-9,700), followed by New York (-8,300) and Minnesota (-6,100).....

Wisconsin experienced the largest over-the-month percentage decline in employment (-0.4 percent), followed by Maine, Rhode Island, and Wyoming
(-0.3 percent each).

In October, 14 states recorded statistically significant changes in employment, 13 of which were increases....The only state with an over-the-month statistically significant decline in employment was Wisconsin (-9,700)....

And as I've noted, this is hardly a one-month blip, because October's decrease means that Wisconsin also moved into the Number One position for job loss over the last 4 months- or the time period that Scott Walker's budget has been in effect. And it's not by a little, either.

Most Job losses June-October 2011
Wisconsin -27,600
Georgia -19,100
Rhode Island -6,200
Missouri -3,800
Arkansas -3,700

You know what's even more remarkable than Wisconsin's job failures? The biggest growers. Illinois and California have major budget and pension shortfalls, and are 2 of the biggest canards right-wing propaganda tries to use as an example of why Walker had to make the massive cuts and damages to public services. Yet, what else do these states have in common? I'll replay part of the BLS report from above.

In October, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 39 states and the District of Columbia, and decreased in 11 states. The largest over-the-month increases in employment occurred in Illinois (+30,000) and California (+25,700).

And you know what else California leads in? Job growth over the last 4 months, with over 80,000 jobs added. That's right, California is Number 1, Wisconsin is Number 50. And I guess Scotty's plans to poach businesses from "higher tax" Illinois aren't really paying off either.

Hmm, maybe cosmetic budget numbers don't tell the whole story about a state's ability to grow jobs, now does it? You know who else knows it? Walker's buddy Mitch Daniels in Indiana, who allegedly has a billion dollar surplus, but also presides over the only state in the Midwest with job losses over the last 12 months (see it on page 19).

So yes, today's figures verify even more that the Walker policies are complete failures? And the Journal-Sentinel's take on this story? No idea, they're busy propping Walker for claiming an Indian company will add 50 jobs a year based on tax credits of $15,000 a job. Oh, and racist dog-whistle stories about daring to help homeless people to vote (while choosing to stay silent on One Wisconsin Now's $10,000 reward for recall petition tampering. Hmmmm...)

You know, I wouldn't have to constantly hammer these points if we ever had a "fair and balanced" state media reporting them.

Wisconsin jobs vs. U.S., by the pictures

I've been working over the last couple of days at making charts comparing how Wisconsin has fared against the rest of the country in creating jobs since the start of the Obama era, and then overlaying it with the performance under Jim Doyle and Scott Walker. Some of this may be a repeat, but for those of you that are visually inclined, I think you'll like it.

First, you can see the bomb that was dropped on the economy in 2009, with major job losses in the private sector and overall, and how the economy was stabilized and began to recover in 2010.

Wisconsin jobs vs. U.S. Jan 2009-Jan 2011

As you can see, Wisconsin was hurting even more than the country in 2009, but rebounded well in 2010, outperforming the rest of America, and we were nearly all the way back to the national average by the end of this 2-year period.

In fact, Wisconsin was especially picking up under Doyle and the Dems in the manufacturing sector, as their job performance was better than the national average after a good 2010.

Manufacturing 2009-2011, Wisconsin vs. U.S.

a key fact to remember given that Wisconsin was the state with the highest percentage of jobs in manufacturing in 2009, and that we were the only state in America with more manufacturing jobs than government jobs. Before Walker and the "tools" ever existed!

Now here is Wisconsin's jobs performance under Scott Walker. Remember that Wisconsin had been catching up to the U.S. in 2010, under Jim Doyle and the Dems' budget. Check out how things have fared since Walker and the WisGOPs took power, especially after Walker's budget passed and took effect starting in July 2011.

U.S. vs. Wisconsin jobs 2011


Check out that collapse after June! And look at the gap open up between Wisconsin and the rest of the country, with the U.S. staying on steady growth, while Wisconsin has fallen back to where we were at the start of the year. Using that chart and plugging in the numbers, you can safely say that Scott Walker's policies have cost Wisconsin over 22,000 private sector jobs and 21,500 jobs overall.

And one more chart for you. Apparently there's a Koch-fueled ad claiming that Walker has "led a manufacturing-led recovery" with an alleged 30,000 new jobs and 15,000 in manufacturing. Politi-crap said the numbers were half-true 2 weeks ago, but as usual, Politi-crap is falling for Republican spin. In addition to the numbers being woefully out of date (it's now 3,500 jobs added under Walker, not 30,000), Wisconsin is now TRAILING THE U.S. at creating manufacturing jobs under Scotty since the jobs have collapsed under Walker's budget.

2011 Manufacturing growth, Wisconsin vs. U.S.


So now you know the pictures that are making Scott Walker tremble so badly he was sprinting up to Wausau to take credit for a new corporate headquarters that used Doyle-era Democratic-led incentives to decide to come to Wisconsin. Sorry Scotty, you're still losing...BADLY, and we won't continue to allow you to continue to screw up what was working in our state.